The Tiger Forex Report – Week of 05/26 – 05/30/2025

The DXY is starting the holiday week off by leaning on the Downside Target Level. More downside pressure is likely over the next few days.

Crude Oil is stuck in a range trade, and more of the same is expected. A close above $64 a barrel may spark fresh buying interest. The critical resistance band should put a cap on any extreme rally.

30yr T-Bond Yields are pressing higher. Key off last week’s low. Trading above here secures a short-term bottom and could spark a nice bounce.

EURUSD Weekly Outlook:

EURUSD Bulls are off and running to start out the last week of the month. A rally above the upside target #1 could spark fresh buying momentum. UTL #2 is the extended upside objective. Not much more is in the outlook. Trading up in this area most likely will be setting a ceiling for a range trade. Get ready… it may be a boring trade for a month or two. Sustained trading below the upside target #1 will have the Bears trying to press a move, but most likely there will not be any follow through. If there is a close below DTL #1 there will be an update.

GBPUSD Weekly Outlook:

Is Bullish momentum building in the GBPUSD? Maybe. The Bulls are expected to press resistance for a few sessions. UTL #2 has a good chance of being reached in the week ahead. However, do not read too much into this new leg higher. A rejection of this area is very liekly. Be mindful of trading below the UTL #1 level. If this develops the Bears could touch off some fresh selling momentum. A correction is not out of the question. Shoud there be a shift in trend the downside correction zone becomes a viable area to shoot for.

USDCHF Weekly Outlook:

Is the USDCHF digesting the recent downtrend, or ready to make new move lows? In the short-term it is likely that this market will press support. The downside target level #1 is most likely where this FX pair is going to try and gravitate to. This is about all that is on the agenda for a lower trading market unless the USD takes a big hit. If the Bulls are going to reverse this market to higher levels the market need to get a close above the upside correction band. If this happens it would be a good indication that there is extreme USD strength coming back into the currency market. Not likely unless divergence currently present starts to fall apart. Unless you are already working a position in the USDCHF it would be good advice to just wait for a valid signal.

USDJPY Weekly Outlook:

Talk about making the news! Japan with its highest rates in decades, and global analysts are weighing in on the Debt issues this country faces. Crude is sideways and Yields are higher. Why is this market under pressure? Well, divergence is the answer. Trend dynamics are Bearish for the USDJPY. However, a range trade is most likely what we are seeing emerge. Key off the 143.70 monthly directional pivot level. Trading below here keeps the Bears looking to scrape support. If the April low fails, fresh selling could extend the trend all the way to the DTL #1. Should the Bulls get a close above 143.70, then a shift in trend may be underway. Not that a Bull trend is going to build, but a rally to set the upper boundary for a longer-term range trade may be the call. Be mindful of this as you approach longer-term trades in the weeks to come.

AUDUSD Weekly Outlook:

Chopping around and chopping around. There is no bearing on a trend until we get a valid signal. Early indications are that the Bulls will try to challenge resistance. The UTL #1 is not out of the Bulls reach, but that is all that is likely. Only a close above UTL #1 would indicate a potential breakout to the upside. Sustained trading in the critical resistance band, however, may be a sign that the Bears are starting to hold this trend at bay. A slide under this area should spark fresh selling pressure as the Bears make a run for DTL #1.

NZDUSD Weekly Outlook:

More sideways action is on the agenda for the short week ahead. A close above the upside target level #1 would be a positive sign that the Bulls will flirt with another challenge of higher levels. Beware of a spike high. Fundamentally the NZDUSD is likely to be in a range bound pattern for the next few months. The low stamped a couple weeks back is a solid support level. Should this FX pair fall below this area, Bearish selling pressure could start to build. This would give the new leg lower a good shot at falling into the critical support band. Outside of this there is little to no chance of more selling beyond this area under the current market conditions.

USDCAD Weekly Outlook:

The USDCAD is starting the week off with new move lows. More market action has occurred in the past few weeks than in couple of months. Beware of trying to catch a falling knife. Sustained trading on the lows early in the week is an indication that the trend is looking to press this leg lower down toward the downside target #1. That area should hold. A failure here, however, would signal that the market is on a mission to slam lows all the way to the DTL #2 area. If the Bulls are going to get anything going, they need to sustain a trade above Friday’s low. If this can develop there is a good chance at a corrective rally. Just keep your Stops tight if you try and catch a Bid, and wait for a valid Buy signal. Bullish strength in this currency cross will not be secure until there is a rally all the way up to the upside correction band. Not likely under current market conditions.