The Tiger Forex Report – Week of 05/09 – 05/13/2025

The DXY is riding the lows as the FED meeting closes in. Social disruption, however, will most likely take over trend direction.

Crude Oil Bulls touched off a breakout to the upside last week as the chaos of U.S. immigration agents being attacked began Friday. The refineries in California are now stopping the flow of gas to areas of the state to protect drivers. Crude may see only a spike, but gas in LA could touch $10 per gallon. Expect extreme volatility going into the end of the 2nd quarter.

30yr T-Bonds are rising and it is a coin toss on how the market will react to what is going on in the USA. The FED is meeting next week, the West coast is up for grabs, and expectations are for more violence to occur by protestors. Another Summer of Love broke out this weekend.

EURUSD Weekly Outlook:

This currency is trying to breakout to the upside, but momentum is not building. A continuation move to the upside target #1 is expected with the UTL #2 being the spike high extreme high expected for this market. If the EURUSD can get a close above the UTL #2 there is a good chance that the major trend is accelerating. Sustained trading below the upside target #1 keeps this FX pair set adrift and in a sleepy range trade. If the market sells off sharply the DTL #1 should provide a solid floor for this currency cross to bounce off.

GBPUSD Weekly Outlook:

GBPUSD traders are not going to be happy with this forecast. Steady as she goes. This ship is in calm waters and has lost its comapas. More choppy trading around the critical resistance level is the call with time above this level, but most trading below it. Only two consecutive closes above the CRL will confirm enough strength to get a rally going. That would make the UTL #2 a vialble objective. A buy break forecast is the call, and a close in the critical downside correction zone is needed to change this outlook. Not very likely statistacly speaking this week.

USDCHF Weekly Outlook:

This coil is winding tight, and it is most likely to get tighter. The USDCHF spring may not break, but is getting ready to pop. It would be very advisable to sit back and wait for a confirmation of some movement. Make sure to watch out for the false move. There could be a head-fake rally one day, and a complete reversal the next. What really is a bummer is that most likely any move like this Bullish or Bearish will most likely be a dud. Wait to see how things do or do not go down in LA and the rest of the state this week. Odds are good what ever transpires it will get the USD moving because of a short-term trend move in Yields. We shall see. Keep your Stops tight and be nimble.

USDJPY Weekly Outlook:

USDJPY Bulls are trying to get a lift, but resistance is holding the market down. More sideways action is the call as we get closer to the FED meeting. A close above the UTL #1 is needed to confirm strength and extend the upside objective to UTL #2. Below UTL #1 the market will be most likely acting the same down to the downside correction zone. If the Bears can get a close below this area, then there may be a shift in trend for the longer-term.

AUDUSD Weekly Outlook:

Aussie traders are stuck in a lackluster trade, and more of this is expected for the week ahead. This market is expected to be contained within the critical resistance band. Below this area the market should start to touch off fresh selling pressure and head toward DTL #1. This should be it for the Bears because not much follow through is likely. The Bulls are not likely to get much in motion this week. A close above the UTL #1 is needed to change this outlook. UTL #2 would then become the new Bullish trend target above this area.

NZDUSD Weekly Outlook:

The NZDUSD made a newer move high last week, but not by much. A sideways to higher trade is in the cards for the week ahead. A close above UTL #1 would be a good indication that this currency should spark fresh buying that could hit UTL #2 by the end of the week. Below UTL #1 the Bears will have a fight chopping through support back to the critical support band.

USDCAD Weekly Outlook:

Stanley Cup playoffs may be the excuse of some, but FED time is a week away too. Keep your guns holstered and wait for a valid signal. There is little to do on in this Bear trend. Bobbling along support is the call, but not much of an ADR (Average Daily Range) is on the agenda. A Sell rally forecast is the call with the downside target level #1 as the ultimate trend objective especially with a FED rate cut in the forecast…Eventually. Only a close in the upside correction band would change this outlook. This scenario is unlikely unless Yields really climb fast, and social disruption could stop it. Watch out for LA and the rest of California. Illegals are causing transportation to be put to a halt. Refineries in California are already stopping trucks from keeping supply chains in motion to protect the drivers. Word this weekend throughout the commercial businesses is work is cancelled for a few days from LA to San Diego. Gas could hit $10 a gallon this week on the West coast. This is not a conspiracy it is a reality, and the protestors are most likely going to cause many businesses to close because of the damage they are causing. According to the news this is all peaceful. However, insurance companies will not cover the damage anymore. Also, since Canada is a Crude Oil producer this is big for them and the USDCAD. Canada gets to profit off higher Oil and Yields that should fundamentally support the trend. When there is blood in the streets there is always a trade.