The Tiger Forex Report – Week of 10/14 – 10/18/2024

The DXY Bulls are pressing strong resistance because market Yields continue to rise against the FED cut. Get ready for some volatile swings as spreads get stretched.

Crude Oil Bulls are benefiting from turmoil in the Middle East. If this is just an extended correction it should run out of steam soon. Otherwise, $100 a barrel here we go again.

30yr T-Bond Bears could care less about the FED and lower rates. They say…let the banks make money, and rates are not going down with economic risks at historic levels.

EURUSD Weekly Outlook:

The Bears have the EURUSD in a steep downtrend. It is a holiday market to start the week and it may be a bit of a choppy trade until Tuesday. The downside target #1 is the trend objective over the next couple of weeks. As long as Yields are staying firm this currency should remain in a sell rally forecast.

If the Bulls can catch a solid bid the market may look to take some profits off the recent slide. This would put the upside correction zone at the top of the list for target areas to shoot for. Not much else is likely unless Yields start to fall back and make the DXY pull back as well.

GBPUSD Weekly Outlook:

A rough grind of a trade lower in the GBPUSD may be coming to an end. Yields are weighing on this FX pair but support seems to be holding. The downside correction zone is about all that is expected for another leg lower. Be careful not to sell this market in the hole. A fast balloon underwater rally may be lurking in the shadows.

At the very least a profit-taking rally into the upside correction zone is possible for the Bulls to pull off. If Yields start to retreat it may occur very fast. A rubberband effect bounce scenario is high for this currency. If the GBPUSD gets above this area there will be an update. As we get closer to the U.S. election this FX pair will likely start to generate some good swings. Just make sure to pick your points, and weigh your Risk/Reward percentages well.

USDCHF Weekly Outlook:

USDCHF traders have a tough one this week. Can the Bulls lift the market through the upside breakout level? A breach of this area would be a good indication that a fresh leg north is brewing. This puts the upside target #1 at the top of the list for a correction higher.

A dip below the upside correction zone keeps this currency in limbo and back to range trade conditions. Only a failure from the downside breakout level reverses the outlook back to full-blown Bear mode. An update will be given if we get below here. It is very unlikely until Yields start to pull back.

USDJPY Weekly Outlook:

USDJPY Bulls are fueling a rally to the critical 150.00 monthly directional pivot level. As long as Yields are pressing higher and Crude Oil is butting up against resistance this currency Bull should remain strong. The extended upside target level is becoming a viable longer-term upside objective.

If the Bears can regain control of this currency a test of the downside correction zone is likely. This is all that is expected under the current fundamental condition of the market. A failure from the downside breakout level is needed to confirm any return to the Bear trend. Until then the market should be viewed as having set a short-term bottom

AUDUSD Weekly Outlook:

AUDUSD Bears are flirting with the downside correction Zone. This is a key area putting a floor on the current correction. Do not fight a slide below this area. Trading under here should have the Bears leaning on the downside breakout level. 0.6552 is the extended sell-off target.

If the Bulls get a grip on this currency the upside correction zone will be the area to keep an eye on. The trend is a Bull in the longer-term so the recent break may be just a correction. If the market gets above here it would signal overall strength. On toward the upside breakout level and newer trend move highs. If Yields pull back this scenario becomes a very viable future.

NZDUSD Weekly Outlook:

The NZDUSD bounced off the critical support band. This area is likely to hold if the recent lower trend is a correction. Key off the downside breakout level. Sustained trading below here confirms the Bears' strength and a new quest for lower levels. If there is a severe sell-off below this area there will be an update.

Trading above the downside breakout level should help shore this currency up for a rally that targets the critical correction band. If a Bullish move is just a correction off the current low there should not be any trading above this area. A rally above the critical correction band should have the Bulls knocking at the upside breakout level fast. Fresh buying is expected to enter the market above here. Can you say new multi-month highs?

USDCAD Weekly Outlook:

USDCAD Bulls are on a mission as far as most currency pairs are concerned. The upside target #1 is expected to be hit this week. The slope is steep on this rally, and a profit-taking move is likely. Yields are fueling this rally and Canadian economic fundamentals too. Be careful buying into the highs here. A short-term profit-taking move is likely.

If the Bears can get a grip on this market do not get too negative. Overall this currency has been in a wide range trade. More sideways conditions could return shortly. If the market goes into profit-taking mode the downside correction zone becomes a valid area to capitalize off. Watch Yields. If they pull back fresh selling is expected to enter the market and slam the USDCAD back through support fast. Markets tend to go out like they go in. This one is sloped steep and could have just as steep of a slide.