The Tiger Forex Report – Week of 3/04 – 3/08/2024

The DXY is starting to fall into limbo. More sideways is on the agenda.

Crude Oil Bulls are ripe to press newer move highs into the critical resistance zone.

30yr T-Bond Bulls have the momentum and are ready to pull Yields back. The critical long-term directional pivot level could get hit this week.

EURUSD Weekly Outlook:

EURUSD Bulls are grinding higher and are ready for a challenge of the upside breakout level. Yields are pulling back, and this market could extend newer highs towards the critical resistance band. This should put a cap on any leg higher. Only a close above 1.1022 would confirm the market’s intentions to press on to higher ground. The upside target #1 is the longer-term bullish objective.

Sustained trading below the daily directional pivot level will have the Bears falling back into the critical support band. It is not likely that the market will fall below this area. EURUSD Bears will have a tough time getting under this area until Yields catch a bid. A failure from 1.0713 is needed to confirm any longer-term negative outlook. If there is a big turn in the DXY the downside target extreme may come into play.

GBPUSD Weekly Outlook:

GBPUSD traders are stuck in a frustrating trade. This market continues to drift sideways. There is a slight bias for the Bulls. The call is for another run for higher highs. Be careful. The bias is positive, but there may not be much follow through. Trading above the directional pivot level keeps the Bulls poised for higher trading. A breach of the upside breakout level is needed to confirm a true trend move. 1.2865 is the longer-term bullish trend target.

A failure from 1.2594 sets the Bears up for a test of the downside breakout band. This is a key level. Trading below here is a good sign that the market is ready to hammer support into the downside target band. This is all that is expected out of a lower trading market. Yields are pulling back, and as long as that continues the USD will be hard pressed to gain strength against major FX pairs.

USDCHF Weekly Outlook:

More sideways in this market. The Bulls are flirting with an upside breakout, but Yields are not going to help. Only a rally above the upside breakout level confirms the USDCHF Bulls intentions to make a play for the upside correction zone. This is all that is on the to do list for the week, and it would be advisable for Longs to keep their Stops tight.

Below the upside breakout level, the market is ready for a tough sideways trade all the way down to the directional pivot level. Only a dip below here confirms that the Bears are in control again. This makes the downside correction zone a viable trend objective. Watch Yields to confirm the trade. As long as Yields are pulling back the USDCHF Bears can keep a hold on the market.

USDJPY Weekly Outlook:

USDJPY traders have a tough time ahead this week. The market continues to drift above the 150.00 level. Crude Oil is helping the Bulls in this FX pair, but softening Yields counter acts this variable. If the Bulls breach the upside breakout level the market should press newer move highs to the upside target level. This is all that should occur for higher trading. We may have BOJ intervention soon.

Only a sustained trade below the 150.00 level would confirm that the USDJPY is reversing gears. New move lows target the downside correction zone. It is time for a correction, and it is not out of the realm of possibility that the market could fall back into this area. Especially if Crude oil gets a sharp turn to the downside. A situation like that should put very heavy pressure on the market and help to propel it to new long-term lows in a big way.

AUDUSD Weekly Outlook:

More disappointment for AUDUSD traders this week. Wait for a signal. This currency pair is not showing signs of any opportunities in any direction. If the market gets a print above the upside breakout level fresh buying should enter the market and help the Bulls lift this market up into the critical resistance band. With Yields in retreat this is the most likely scenario for the next few trading sessions.

Below the upside breakout level, it will be a grind of a trade all the way down into the downside target zone. If Yields catch a bid the AUDUSD Bears may be able to keep the market pointed lower. However, until there is any significant change in market conditions there is unlikely to be any trading below this area.

NZDUSD Weekly Outlook:

NZDUSD Bears had a nice profit taking slide last week, and that should be it for a lower trading market. An early challenge of resistance is the call this week. A run up to the critical resistance band is the most probable case for the market. If there is a close above 0.6242 it would be a very positive sign that this FX pair is on a mission for longer-term highs. That would put the upside target level in the Bulls cross hairs.

If the market pulls back into the downside correction zone the NZDUSD should find a short-term bottom to bounce off. If Yields start to rise again also, it would help the NZDUSD Bears. The downside target level would then become a viable sell off objective as the market makes new multi-month lows.

USDCAD Weekly Outlook:

Is this the week the Bulls can really lift the trend higher? Probably not. Yields are under pressure, and that sets the USDCAD up for a fresh sell off. Below the upside breakout level, the market is ripe to pull back to the downside breakout level. A failure here signals new move lows into the downside correction zone. Be carful trying to fade a lower trading market. If the market gets under 1.3334 it could get very dicey. The downside target level #1 is a very reachable area especially if the DXY gets slammed.

Sustained trading above the upside breakout level would be a positive indication that the USDCAD is not though with making higher move highs. The upside bullish target level would then become the level to shoot for. However, if this situation is going to happen it would require a big jump in Yields first. Unless that does not occur, rallies are not expected to hold up.