The Tiger Forex Report – Week of 3/06 – 03/10/2023

DXY is not being very helpful to gauge the USD. Key off the upside breakout level for direction.

Crude Oil breached strong trend resistance. A challenge of the upside breakout level is very likely this week.

30yr T-Bond reversed gears on Friday, but it is just a profit taking rally. Use caution to the long side. The trend is still a long-term Bear.

EURUSD Weekly Outlook:

EURUSD Bulls are trying to give the market a lift. A challenge of the upside breakout level is likely this week. If the Bulls get a print above 1.0691 fresh buying is expected to fuel a surge towards the upside target zone. High inflation in the EU is likely to keep the ECB on its heels, and that is slowing the bearish momentum. Longer-term this currency is in a sell rally forecast.

Sustained trading under 1.0691 puts the market on hold. Pick your points to the downside carefully. If U.S. yields start to rally, then the EURUSD has the potential to fall into the downside target zone. The Fed is not letting off the higher interest rate train, and that should be one of the strongest forces hampering the market. If the currency does touch off new weekly lows make sure to wait for a valid buy signal if you are going to fade the trend.

GBPUSD Weekly Outlook:

This currency is wound up tight and is ready for a breakout. Key off the recent critical swing high for direction. Trading under here will have the market set for a test of support and new move lows. The 1.1841 level is the key objective. This is the lower end of the range holding the GBPUSD in a holding pattern. If the market fails here then the Bears will have the downside target zone in their sights.

If the Bulls can get a rally above 1.2149, then it will be more of the same. The GBPUSD will most likely grind higher targeting the 1.2447 upper range trade resistance level. It is very unlikely that a show of strength will hold up in the market. Fundamentals and technical are an overall Bear for this currency. As long as the Fed remains relentless in their Hawkishness this forecast is likely to remain in place.

USDCHF Weekly Outlook:

The Bulls are running out of steam in the USDCHF. It has been a long fight rounding out a bottom, and higher move highs are holding up the short-term trend. It is time to be a cautious Bull. The upside target zone is the objective as long as U.S. yields stay stable to higher. 0.9737 should put a cap on an extended leg to the upside. Only a close above this area would change the longer-term outlook to a Bull.

Trading back towards the downside breakout level keeps the market digesting recent gains. A failure from here is required to reverse the short-term trend and target new move lows. Do not fight a break under 0.9217. Trading below here should bring back the Bears for a feeding frenzy. 0.8980 is the first target on a move that cold press new monthly lows down to 0.8725 before there is a bounce. Long-term fundamentals are strong for the CHF verses other currencies. USD strength is not likely to impact this market as much as other currency pairs.

USDJPY Weekly Outlook:

USDJPY Bulls are pressing the trend. Looming BOJ action is the shadow over this market, and it may manifest its resolve soon. This could turn the market on a dime. Higher move highs are helping to keep the trend intact as the market makes a play for the upside target zone. Keep your stops tight. The recent rally over the past few weeks is viewed as a correction. Until there is clarity with the BOJ it will be hard to be a long-term Bull.

The slope of the trend is steep, and a pull back is not out of the question. If the Bears can get below 134.00, then a fresh sell off is likely. A correction back towards the 132.12-130.95 downside target zone would be very reasonable. This is a key area supporting the short-term trend. If the USDJPY falls below 130.95 then all bets are off for the Bull trend. Trading below 130.95 would be a negative sign that the market is on a hunt for new multi month lows.

AUDUSD Weekly Outlook:

The AUDUSD found a short-term floor last week. Key off the upside breakout level for direction. Below here the market is flirting with another test of support. The Bears are looking to press newer move lows down into the 0.6663-0.6543 downside target zone. This FX pair is a dog with fleas. Long-term fundamentals should keep this market hard pressed for months to come. The sell rally forecast will most likely remain in place for quite some time.

A breach of 0.6780 puts the Bears on hold for a corrective rally that targets the upside target zone. Use caution riding any longs. Upside moves are likely to be fleeting. Only a sustained trade above the 0.6924 level changes the outlook. 0.7110 is the extended upside objective should there be a radical change in the market. The only scenario that would set the stage for a change would be if the Fed drops their Hawkish intentions. (Good luck with that one)

NZDUSD Weekly Outlook:

The Bears have a tight grip on the NZDUSD. Key off the upside breakout level. Trading above 0.6273 slows down the slide as the market tries to pull off a profit taking rally into the upside target zone. This is all that is expected for a show of strength. Only a close above 0.6382 would change the outlook to neutral. The long-term fundamentals are abysmal for the NZD.

Trading below 0.6273 keeps the Bears in on the path to newer move lows. A failure from 0.6129 would confirm this as the NZDUSD makes a play for the downside target zone. This market is locked in a sell rally forecast. Use caution using other markets as an indicator for this currency pair. Even if U.S. yields pull back this market remains a Bear. A pull back in the USD also is not likely to impact this market either. The long-term forecast is very negative for this pair.

USDCAD Weekly Outlook:

USDCAD Bulls ran out of gas last week, and more choppy action is likely. Use the upside breakout level for direction. A breach of this level should give the Bulls one last boost as the market makes a play for the 1.3809 level. Be careful playing the long side. It is likely that the market will run out of gas and fall back into range trade conditions. Only a close above 1.3809 confirms strength, and a longer-term Bullish outlook.

Below 1.3665 the market is set for a retracement back into the downside correction zone. This is a solid area that should hold up if the market is going to remain in a neutral to higher posture. If there is a failure from 1.3484, then expect the Bears to slam the market again. 1.3261 is the target on a slide that could hit 1.3226 before there is a bounce. This is about all that should occur to the downside unless there is a big change in the Fed outlook and U.S. yields.