The Tiger Forex Report – Week of 05/12 – 05/16/2025

Well, the DXY is in a tizzy as it drifts along. Get used to this index not being the best gauge for many of the FX pairs on a Daily basis.

Crude Oil Bulls are pressing the upside correction, but that is what it is. Only a close above the upside breakout level would change the outlook.

30yr T-Bond Yields are a disappointment for many, but the market is always right. Guess what? It is what it is. More range bound chop ahead. No signals or patterns on the radar.

EURUSD Weekly Outlook:

A Head & Shoulders Sell signal was confirmed last week in the EURUSD. Two closes below the downside breakout level have the Bears salivating as fresh selling pressure may enter the market. The DTL #1 is the objective to watch out for. With the FED not cutting rates that gives an edge to the downside trade since the ECB is likely to cut. Remember it is a corrective slide, but it could be big. It will take two days of closes above the downside breakout level to change the Bearish outlook. Then the Bulls would not be in control, but rather a pillow fight is likely to develop. Trading back at these levels would set the stage for a range trade.

GBPUSD Weekly Outlook:

What a boring trade with the GBPUSD. New economic threshold passed??? Key off the downside breakout level. A failure here is an indication that the Bears are going to pummel this market toward new move lows. The downside correction zone is the objective. Trend dynamics say that the Bulls are in control so this is viewed as a correction if support gets tested. Otherwise it is a range trade. Only a rally above the critical resistance level (UTL #1) confirms the markets intentions to press newer move highs. UTL #2 is the extended upside target.

USDCHF Weekly Outlook:

There is a bit of a corrective rally going on in the USDCHF. It is viewed as a correction, and the upside correction band is most likely going to hold the Bulls at bay. A breach and close above the upside target level is needed to confirm extended strength that puts the critical resistance band in the market’s sights. If the Bears start to hold the market back it will most likely be a range trade for a bit. However, if last weeks low is taken out the Bears have a good shot at getting the trend back in gear. The downside breakout level #1 will then become a viable sell off objective.

USDJPY Weekly Outlook:

It is a Bullish correction in motion and there is a good chance that this currency could hit the upside correction band. That is the most likely the situation under the market conditions, and it should be the extreme for the rally in motion. If the USDJPY can get consecutive closes below the monthly directional pivot level, then the Bears have a shot at resuming the longer-term trend. DTL #1 is the first stop on a new leg lower that could see the DTL #2 by July.

AUDUSD Weekly Outlook:

There was a Sell signal in the AUDUSD and the DTL #1 is a viable level to aim for. The downside sell signal target zone is the ultimate Sell area, but a range trade situation is more likely to develop. If there is a close below the DTL #1 then there would be a better chance that the Bears could press support further. As far as the Bulls in this forecast there is no chance of any real strength unless there is a close above last week’s high. This would also negate the Sell signal. UTL #1 would then be the level that has a good chance of being challenged. UTL #2 is the longer-term upside objective.

NZDUSD Weekly Outlook:

The NZDUSD failed to make a higher move high last week. A turn to support is the call for early in the week. Bearish pressure is likely to test support down to the critical support band. This area should provide a floor. If this area fails there is a good chance that momentum could drive this FX pair down toward the downside breakout level. Only a rally above last week’s high confirms strength, and a potential Bullish surge that could hit the upside target level #1.

USDCAD Weekly Outlook:

Bullish strength is growing in the USDCAD. A follow through move is expected this week. The upside correction band is a good area to shoot for. Trend dynamics are Bearish, but a correction is the call. With trade talks in the works the trend is likely to continue. Only a failure from last week’s low would reverses the outlook. If the market falls below the downside target #1 then there is a good chance that the Bears will pound new move lows toward the DTL #2. Watch Yields. If Yields soften this week the Bears will try and capitalize. However, this is not expected to occur this week.