The Tiger Forex Report – Week of 5/22 – 5/26/2023

DXY sell signal may put a halt to recent strength. Time to digest recent gains.

Crude Oil is stuck in a tough sideways range trade.

30yr T-Bond Yields are rising. More selling pressure is expected.

EURUSD Weekly Outlook:

EURUSD traders are looking to capitalize on a fresh buy signal. The market has hit strong support, and a bounce is likely. Short-term momentum calls for a rally into the upside buy signal target band. This is all that is likely for a rally because of rising Yields. If Yields start to soften, then the upside objective is extended towards the 1.1095 level.

Only a failure from last weeks swing low reverses the outlook for an extended sell off that targets the 1.0700 level. This is about all that is likely for an extended sell off. Fundamentals are helping to prop up this currency, and it will be tough to fade this strength. However, if U.S. Yields get a big boost, then expect more downside selling pressure.

GBPUSD Weekly Outlook:

GBPUSD Bears are gaining strength, and a play for the downside correction zone is the call for the week. The USD is showing signs of weakness, but not enough to stop a sell off in this currency pair. Of all the FX pairs this one seems to have enough strength to put up a fight. Only a failure from 1.2134 confirms weakness and extends the downside target to the 1.2000 level.

If the Bulls are going to recapture control, then a rally above the upside breakout level is necessary. If the market can post a close above this area, then a shift in momentum may hold solid. Sustained trading above the upside breakout level targets the 1.2770 – 1.2795 target band. For this to occur it would take a strong pull back in Yields, and that is not in the forecast.

USDCHF Weekly Outlook:

USDCHF traders are looking to test support this week. A Dark Cloud Cover sell signal keeps this market on edge into the sell signal target zone. If this is just a short-term move, then the market should get a bounce. Only a failure from 0.8939 confirms weakness and extends the downside objective to the downside breakout level, and new trend lows.

If the Bulls are going to regain control, then there needs to be a rally above the upside reversal level. If the market can get above this area, then a play for the upside correction zone is likely. Do not get married to a Bullish position in this FX pair. The long-term trend is a Bear, and rallies are not expected to hold. Keep your Stops tight because when this currency turns it will be ahead of other currency pairs.

USDJPY Weekly Outlook:

USDJPY Bulls are pressing new highs, but a fresh sell signal may put a halt to upside momentum. A short-term pull back is likely. The downside target is 136.25, and this should be it for a pull back unless Yields fall apart. Should this occur, then the downside objective is extended to the 135.40 level.

Recent strength in this market is likely to be running out of steam, but strong Yields are helping to fuel the recent surge. Should the market get above last week’s swing high it would be unwise to fade the Bulls. Fresh buying is expected to enter the market and drive price action up towards the 139.50 level. If the market gets up into this area this week it would be a strong indication that the market is set to extend the trend for another few weeks.

AUDUSD Weekly Outlook:

AUDUSD traders are looking for a move, but this week may disappoint. Unlike many other major FX crosses this market is set adrift. The trend is weak, and support is likely to be tested first. There are no Buy or Sell signals to capitalize on, and that means “Wait” for a signal. Even though there are some good Buy and Sell signals for and against the USD in other pairs, there is nothing to jump on here. Fundamentals are horrible for the AUDUSD, and BOA is not helping the Bulls or Bears in the short-term.

Bulls have little to work with in this market, but Yields may help. If there is a sharp pull back in U.S. Yields, then there may be a short-term rally in this market. However, it is most likely going to be short lived. Until we get a valid signal the AUDUSD is set for a wide choppy range trade.

NZDUSD Weekly Outlook:

NZDUSD traders are looking to capitalize on recent upside momentum. A play for the directional pivot level is on the agenda. If the market gets above here then a follow through leg higher is expected to lift the market up to the critical long-term resistance level. If the market can sustain a trade above here then the Bulls have a chance at hitting the 0.6450 level.

Although the Bulls have control of this currency there are fundamentals that say otherwise. If U.S. Yields stay strong this week it is likely that the NXDUSD will fall back on support. If this is the case, it will be an ugly trade to the downside. Without a fresh sell signal the outlook for the week is very Neutral. Be careful trading this currency cross to the downside. It would be best to wait for a valid signal before entering any new trades.

USDCAD Weekly Outlook:

USDCAD traders have had a tough time the past few weeks, and more of the same is on the agenda for this week. There are no signals, and divergence amongst the other major FX pairs is not helping things. If there is a wait and see scenario this currency takes the cake. The best advise is to stay put and wait for any trades in the USDCAD. Bulls and Bears are chomping at the bits, but there is no trade in sight. Do not force any trades. That would only set you up for disaster. Until there is a trend bias, or signal to trade you should stay put. Remember that traders trade the actions and reactions in the market place, and right now there is nothing to go on here.