The Tiger Forex Report – Week of 7/24 – 7/28/2023

DXY Bulls found support, and they are looking to push on a bit more.

Crude Oil Bears are trying to keep the Sell signal alive. Below 75.27 there is a good chance at hitting our target. Above 77.51, and the signal is negated. It would be unwise to fade an upside breakout.

30yr T-Bond are going nowhere. The large range trade is likely to continue.

EURUSD Weekly Outlook:

EU and German economic realities are plaguing the EURUSD, and a run at support this week is likely. The Bears have the downside correction zone in their sights. This may put the brakes on the recent slide. The USD is strong, but it is nearing strong resistance. If that continues, then the EURUSD may bounce. Only a failure from 1.1000 confirms extended weakness that targets the downside breakout level. Remember that the Consumer Confidence number for the EU will be released on Friday the 28th. This will have a key impact on the trend for this FX pair for the following week.

Under the current conditions this market needs to get above the upside breakout level to confirm strength. This area gave the market a very tough time last week. A breach of this level, however, targets the 1.1380 – 1.1406 resistance band. If the market gets back up to this area it would be a very Bullish indicator for the short-term trend moving forward. 1.1611 is the extended upside objective.

GBPUSD Weekly Outlook:

Well, the GBPUSD Bears hit the downside correction zone. Is there more to go? Since the USD seems to be holding firm, then it should be a neutral to lower trade for this market going forward this week. Key off the 1.2805 level. Trading below here keeps the trend intact for a break that targets the downside breakout level.

Sustained trading above 1.2805 will have the market in neutral up to 1.2868. Above here the trend may return to a Bull. Remember that the market currently is in a corrective phase. There has not been any confirmation of any longer-term trend change. The upside breakout level is the bullish target if the trend is changing. This scenario is not out of line if the BOE starts to rumble about any Hawkish actions. And they are not far off from doing so because of inflation, employment, etc.

USDCHF Weekly Outlook:

A correction is trying to develop, and the upside correction zone is the objective. This is all that is in the cards for a higher trading market. The USDCHF is in a Bear trend, and rallies are viewed as corrections until prove otherwise. If there was an absurd rally in the USD, then this market would have a chance at challenging the upside breakout level. Otherwise, the sell rally forecast remains.

A failure from the downside breakout level would signal Bearish strength is building for a test of the 0.8474 level. A fresh leg lower for the USDCHF should not be faded without a strong signal. This market has the potential to fall all the way down to the 0.8295 area if the USD starts to get hit.

USDJPY Weekly Outlook:

USDJPY Bulls almost pressed all the way through the short-term upside correction zone last week. If there is going to be a pause on this move, then this is most likely the area where it will occur. Use caution fading continued strength. Trading above 142.106 will have the Bulls in an aggressive buy posture that targets the upside breakout level and beyond.

It may be time for some digestion after all the volatility the past few weeks. This would be a great area for this to develop. The trend is a major Bull. Only a failure from the downside breakout level would confirm weakness for the USDJPY. The only way that this would most likely happen is if the BOJ became very Hawkish.

AUDUSD Weekly Outlook:

AUDUSD Bears found the downside correction zone, and a bounce may occur. If this is just a correction, then the market should hold the .6707 level. A failure from here keeps the posture in a Bearish way that targets the downside breakout level.

Sustained trading above the 0.6707 level is a bullish indication that the market is setting up for a rally. If the USD is under pressure, then the AUDUSD will be targeting the upside breakout level. This is all that is most likely going to manifest out of a rally. There are plenty of fundamentals that are not looking good for the AUDUSD.

NZDUSD Weekly Outlook:

NZDUSD Bears are slamming support, and are posed for follow through. An early test of 0.6149 is expected. A dip below this level and the Bears will be making a play for the downside breakout level. Do not fight a break under here. 0.5892 is the extended downside target. Fundamentals are looking bad for this currency. The sell rally forecast remains intact.

Recent volatility may need to digest for a bit. Trading above 0.6149 will have the Bulls fighting to hold a sideways trade up to the 0.6198 level. Only above here is the market is there the potential to touch off fresh buying that should have the NZDUSD butting up against the long-term directional pivot level. The upside breakout level is the extended target.

USDCAD Weekly Outlook:

The Bulls are hanging onto this buy signal, and are ready to launch. Trading above 1.3213 keeps the USDCAD poised to press a new leg higher. 1.3461 is the target level for the bullish signal. Once the market crosses above 1.3370 it would be wise to lift the Stop level above the entry price.

Only a failure from the 1.3088 level negates the buy signal, and confirms a new trend leg to the downside. 1.2966 is the first stop on break that has the potential to hit the 1.2850 area in the short-term future. Especially if the USD falls apart.