The Tiger Forex Report – Week of 8/1 – 8/5/2022

Forex pairs have the USD on edge. With the 30yr T-Bond in rally mode it will be tough for USD Bulls to regain control. More downward pressure is in the forecast, but it is still viewed as a correction. Only a big sell off in the Bonds, or a big rally in Crude Oil may reverse the negative outlook. 

DXY Bears refuse to give up their mission to press new move lows…

Crude Oil Bears may be running out of gas. A short-term rally seems to be brewing…

30yr T-Bond sustained a rally last week helping to add pressure on the USD…

EURUSD Weekly Outlook :

Talk about a choppy nightmare of a trade in the EURUSD. Our Buy signal was Stopped out with a profit, but failed to hit the upside target objective. With Crude Oil treading water, the EURUSD is slowing its Bearish descent. The bullish support is also getting a lift from a higher trading Bond market. A challenge of 1.0279 is likely. It will be touch and go in this area, and it may not be the best area to sell into. Trading above 1.0279 is likely to build as the market makes a play for the 1.0370 level.

Only a failure from 1.0097 confirms a neutral to lower trading bias is back. Parity is the first stop on a slide that has the potential to press new move lows under 0.9900. A reversal in the 30yr T-Bonds and a rally in Crude Oil are needed to help solidify bearish pressure in this Forex pair.

GBPUSD Weekly Outlook :

The British Pound found our original target area last week. Volatility is not expected to drop. Another run for new move highs is likely early in the week. A rally above 1.2213 is a positive indication that this currency cross is looking to drive the market higher towards the 1.2321 level. This is about all that is expected out of a continuation rally. Only a print above 1.2404 takes this market off edge, and set to drive the USD into the pavement. 1.2680 is the longer-term upside target.

If the Bears return to this currency cross, then a turn back towards the downside target zone is likely. This area back down into the 1.2004 – 1.1945 levels should hold the GBPUSD up. Only a failure from 1.1945 confirms that the longer-term trend is back. 1.1762 is the extended downside objective.

USDCHF Weekly Outlook :

USDCHF Bears are in full control. Every rally seems to run out of gas and then reverse gears to hit new move lows. Key off of the Critical Directional Pivot. A failure from here is expected to build. 0.9342 is the first downside target on a move that has the potential to get as low as 0.9252 before there is a bounce.

Trading above 0.9507 helps to put this market on pause. There is no buy signal, and the trend is definitely Bearish. However, sustained trading above 0.9496 puts this market on hold. If this Forex pair can muster up a rally, then a run for 0.9694 is possible. 0.9738 is the upper extreme for a higher trade. Only a big sell off in the Bonds and rally in Crude Oil help to reverse the outlook and bring back the USDCHF Bulls.

USDJPY Bears are pressing new move lows…

USDJPY is under the gun hovering in our downside corrective zone. Technically this is about all that is on the agenda for a lower trading market. With Crude Oil on pause and the Bonds in rally mode it may be hard to muster up a bullish move. Use caution buying into the current break. If the Bears get below 131.31 all bets are off for a rally. A lower trading USD could help perpetuate more selling pressure in the USDJPY. 128.56 down to 126.73 is the extended downside target zone.

Trading above 132.84 puts this currency cross on pause. There are no buy signals, or trend changes to get the Bulls motivated. If Crude Oil gets a big move higher coupled with a lower trading Bond market, then a fresh wave of buying may enter this market. Do not force a trade. Wait for a signal.

AUDUSD Weekly Outlook :

USD Bearishness is helping to lift the AUDUSD. The market is drifting around the lower end of the upside corrective zone. Another run for newer move highs is likely early in the week. 0.7070 – 0.7078 should put a cap on the current rally. Only a breach of 0.7078 signals a potential leg higher. 0.7284 is the longer-term upside objective. This is also a longer-term key trend pivot level.

The longer-term trend is still a Bear. If the USD regains strength, then a fresh wave of selling is likely. A lower trading market will have the Bears eyeballing the downside target zone from 0.6857 to the 0.6812 level.

NZDUSD Weekly Outlook :

NZDUSD Bulls are pressing into the upside target zone. Another challenge of resistance is likely early in the week up to 0.6378. This is all that is expected. Only a sustained trade above 0.6378 confirms strength and another leg higher that targets 0.6551.

The short-term trend is higher, and if it is just a correction it should run out of gas soon. If the longer-term trend kicks back into gear, then a break targeting the 0.6195 – 0.6162 downside target zone should develop. As long as the USD is under pressure the NZDUSD is not expected to have any extreme sell off.

USDCAD Weekly Outlook :

USD weakness is influencing the USDCAD trade just like the other major FX pairs. The trend is negative, and there are no bullish signals. Another test of support is likely down to the 1.2782 level. A failure from here confirms extended weakness, and a longer-term downside objective of 1.2604.

Only a rally above 1.2868 confirms a pause for the cause as the Bulls try to regain control. If there is a big sell off in the Bonds then fresh buying should reenter the market. 1.3024 up to 1.3070 is the upside target zone. Even if there is a big show of strength in the USD versus other pairs it is not likely to manifest in the USDCAD.