The Tiger Forex Report – Week of 8/14 – 8/18/2023

A challenge of resistance is the call for the DXY after Friday’s newer move high.

A short-term Sell Signal was triggered in the Crude Oil futures after our Bullish target was hit. Could this spark a correction in the USDJPY??? Maybe.

30yr T-Bond futures set a new lower swing low. A neutral to lower trade is expected. Yields should remain firm for the next few sessions.

EURUSD Weekly Outlook:

The biggest currency in the DXY has settled into a tough sideways trade. Key off the breakout levels for a fresh trend move. Inside this area it will be a harsh trade at best. A rally above the upside breakout level will have the market set to press new swing highs into the upside correction zone. Not much is likely beyond this point unless there is a significant pull back in U.S. Yields.

If the Bears can get a print below the downside breakout level, then there is a good chance that a fresh wave of selling pressure could enter the market. Trading back in this area is a good indication that the EURUSD has the potential to reach the downside target level. Not much is expected under this area unless the DXY is on an extreme Bullish rampage.

GBPUSD Weekly Outlook:

The Bulls are fighting to keep the Buy signal in place. Another run for higher levels is still the call for the GBPUSD. If the market can sustain a trade above the 1.2737 level, then another boost in upside momentum is likely. If this occurs then the Bulls will have the upside correction zone and profit target level in their sights. If the DXY is under pressure this scenario will become very viable.

If the Bears get a break below the 1.2616 level, then all bets are off for the Bulls. Fresh selling pressure is expected to enter the market here and squeeze all the weak Longs out of the market. 1.2270 is the first stop on a slide that could reach 1.2195 before there is a bounce.

USDCHF Weekly Outlook:

The sell signal remains in place for the USDCHF. An early test of support is on the menu for the week ahead. Trading under 0.8805 keeps the market pointed South towards the profit target price level. Do not fight a slide below here. A failure here should keep the Bears in motion and take the market to new multi-week lows.

Only a rally above the upside breakout level negates the Sell signal, and confirms the Bullish intentions of the market. The upside correction zone is the objective for a sudden show of strength. The overall trend is a Bear, and any rally is expected to be short lived.

USDJPY Weekly Outlook:

The Bullish advance in the USDJPY is self-evident and not stopping. A run for newer move highs is very likely early in the week. Overall, the Bulls are technically setup to make a play for the 146.50 level with 148.00 the longer-term upside objective. This remains a very likely forecast as long as Crude Oil remains firm, and U.S. Yields remain neutral to higher as well. If these fundamentals change, then the USDJPY may start to pull back into a digestive range trade.

Only a failure from the downside breakout level confirms any real weakness for the USDJPY. Trading below here would set the Bears up for a continued grind lower into the downside correction zone. This is all that is expected for a lower trading USDJPY in the short-term future. Unless there are some extreme shifts in market fundamentals.

AUDUSD Weekly Outlook:

The Bears are slamming the AUDUSD into submission. More downside action is likely as the market tries to find a bounce point. 0.6344 has become a very viable selloff objective now. Be careful fighting this market as it blasts through support. This currency may hit the 0.6270 level before there is a bounce. Fundamentals are horrible for this currency. If the U.S. Yields pull back significantly there may be a pause to this harsh sloping break.

Only a rally above the upside breakout level confirms a short-term shift of direction for the AUDUSD. Trading above this area will have the Bulls ripe to extend the rally into the upside correction zone. This should put a cap on a Bullish move in this FX pair. The fundamentals just do not support any long-term shift in the trend yet.

NZDUSD Weekly Outlook:

Our harsh Bearish outlook remains intact. This market is on a mission to pile drive support down to the 0.5780 level. The economic realities are manifesting in New Zealand fast. It would be bad advice to fight this slide. If you are going to challenge this trend, then wait for a very solid Buy signal. You have been warned.

Only a rally above the upside breakout level confirms a short-term correction. If the market can sustain a trade above 0.6118, then there may be enough strength to make a play for the upside correction zone. This is all that is likely unless there is a major fundament change for the NZDUSD.

USDCAD Weekly Outlook:

USDCAD Bulls hit our Profit target level last week, and now a digestive trade is very likely to develop. Be careful all of you swing traders. Resistance is strong, and it is likely that this currency is not going to make any significant moves this week. Trading under the downside breakout level puts the market in a range trade back down to the downside breakout level. Sorry folks. Unless the DXY gets a very strong boost this market is getting ready for tough trade to the upside. It is a bit overcooked.

If the market slips below the downside breakout level, then the Bears will be digging into the downside correction zone. This is all that is expected out of a Bearish correction. The short-term rally is losing steam and the USDCAD is set for a wide range trade. Expectations should be lowered for the next couple of months to come.