The Tiger Forex Report 9-18-23
The Tiger Forex Report – Week of 9/18 – 9/22/2023
The DXY Bulls continue to press the trend higher. More upside action is on the agenda for the week ahead.
Crude Oil continues to blast through resistance. Use caution trying to fight this move. Upside momentum has the potential to reach the 95.00 a barrel price level.
30yr T-Bond Bears are still in control of this market. Yields are set to press higher as we get closer to the next FED meeting.
EURUSD Weekly Outlook:
The EURUSD has continued to hammer through support, but a bounce may be forming. Friday set a Harami Buy signal that has the market trying to reverse gears for a correction. In the short-term this currency is ripe for a rally that targets the directional pivot level. This is a strong barrier for the Bulls to cross. Trading above here confirms the Bullish resolve and extends the upside objective to the upside target level.
Our downside target was hit last week, and support is expected to hold. Only a failure from the downside breakout level confirms fresh weakness. Be careful trying to fight fresh lows. Downside momentum is likely to build. 1.0560 is the first stop on a break that could reach the 1.0525 support level. If Yields get another boost this week, then the downside objective will be extended to the 1.0490 support level.
GBPUSD Weekly Outlook:
The GBPUSD downside trend is still a strong Bear. Use caution buying against this downside trend. As long as US Yields remain strong this currency is set to press newer move lows. 1.2320 is the first objective on a Break that has the potential to press the 1.2250 level before there is any significant bounce. The UK economy is in shambles, and the value of the Pound should continue to reflect this.
The slope of the current slide is steep, and a bounce is not out of the question. It will be a fight to rally back up towards the directional pivot level. Only a breach of this area confirms that the markets Bullish resolve has returned. Trading above here sets this currency pair up to challenge the upside breakout level, and the upside target level is the extreme for any show of strength.
USDCHF Weekly Outlook:
USDCHF traders are riding the Bull trend to new move highs. Although this currency pair is due for a correction, it would be unwise to fade the momentum. 0.9040 is the next upside target to aim for. If Yields continue to blast higher, then the market is likely to press new highs up towards the 0.9125 level before momentum runs out of gas.
The current correction is going against the long-term trend for this currency. This current rally is very likely to fall apart if Yields turn back a bit. If the DXY starts a correction, then this is the FX pair that should reverse gears sharply. 0.8776 is the first stop on a slide that could be pressing the downside breakout level very quickly. It would be unwise to fight a breaking USDCHF. Downside momentum is expected to build pressing new move lows all the way to the downside target level.
USDJPY Weekly Outlook:
Another raging Bull is the USDJPY. The trend is your friend, and the Bulls have the potential to reach the 149.40 level before there is a pause. If the BOJ does not pull the trigger, the Bulls could press newer move highs all the way back up to the 150.25 level before there is another halt in upside momentum.
Last week the BOJ started to make their presence known again. This may be just what is necessary to reverse the Bull trend for a little while. Watch the downside breakout level. If the market gets under here then the market should be leaning on the directional pivot level in no time at all. Do not try and fight a slide under this area. Downside momentum is likely to build under this area and press a fresh downside move all the way back to the downside correction zone.
AUDUSD Weekly Outlook:
Whild the USD Bulls were showing strength in most FX pairs the AUDUSD has tried to reverse gears. It is a tough ranger trade between the breakout levels. However, the Bulls seem to have their sights set on a challenge of the upside breakout level. Even though this currency is in the gutter it still has the potential to bounce back to the upside correction zone before the long-term Bear trend kicks back into gear.
Only a failure from the downside breakout level confirms fresh weakness and newer move lows. 0.6300 is the first stop on a break that has the potential to test the 0.6235 level before there is a pause. 0.6180 is the longer-term sell off target. If Yields really press new highs this week, then this lower trading scenario will have a very good chance at manifesting itself over the next few trading sessions.
NZDUSD Weekly Outlook:
The NZDUSD has started to digest the recent Bear trend, and more sideways action is on the agenda for the week ahead. If U.S. Yields pull back, then this currency has the potential to continue the range trade conditions. Watch the DXY for a clue on direction. If the index starts to pull back sharply, then this market has the potential to challenge the upside breakout level. If the market gets above the 0.60136 level, then expect the Bulls to press on into the upside correction zone.
Only a break under the downside breakout level confirms the trend is still intact. New move lows could come fast and sharply so keep your Stops tight. Trading under the 0.5859 level targets the 0.5790 – 0.5775 support band. Do not take newer move lows lightly. If Yields have a strong jump higher, then the NZDUSD could pile drive new move lows all the way downs to the 0.5718 level before there is a pause.
USDCAD Weekly Outlook:
USDCAD Bears are trying to press new move lows to our sell signal profit target level. The trend is your friend, and if Yields pull back early this week our target level should get hit. For the Sell signal this is all that is on the agenda for the recent correction. However, the technical outlook has the Bears prepared to drop this currency back into the downside correction zone before there is a bounce.
Watch the DXY and Yields to stay on track in the USDCAD this week. If Yields press higher move highs and the DXY Bulls press newer highs, then this market may become a raging Bull fast. A rally above the upside breakout level confirms the Bulls resolve. Newer move highs target the 1.3725 – 1.3748 resistance band. Trading back up in this area would be a good indication that the USDCAD could see the 1.3950 area over the next few weeks. There is a rate hike looming still, and that could help to hold the Bulls in this currency on the rally path.