The Tiger Forex Report – Week of 11/7 – 11 /11 /2022

DXY Bears have a Sell signal. If Yields go down then a test of Support is likely.

Crude Oil Bulls are ready to explode! This market is back on the Rally Train! Upside Breakout Likely!

30yr T-Bond may flirt with Resistance and set the markets up for a big range trade.

EURUSD Weekly Outlook:

There is a whole lot of shaking going on in the EURUSD. The downside correction zone held, and yielded a Buy signal. Key off the yields this week. A pull back signals a weakening USD, and the potential for a rally up towards the 1.0096 upside breakout level. A breach of this level should spark fresh buying as Stops get triggered fueling new move highs. 1.0199 is the extended upside objective.

Only a failure from last Thursdays Low negates the short-term buy signal. Trading under here sets the Bears up for a move that targets the 0.9631 level. Be careful at these lower levels. Just because the ECB raised rates it does not mean much. It is just slowing the crash… But wait… Now Joey is asking you know who in the Ukraine to negotiate for peace. It is just like that episode in that Madam… show (2014). Remember? There was an actor who now runs the Ukraine in it. An end to the Russian sanctions coming soon? The truth is stranger than fiction. The U.S. Is trying to push the Ukraine to negotiate peace. This would Boost the EURUSD, and slam the USD. A relief in energy prices globally for the holidays? Keep your eyes on the news if you are a EURUSD Bear.

GBPUSD Weekly Outlook:

Well, the GBPUSD market is a tough one. The new leadership for the U.K. may be just as short as the last. Nothing good comes out politically from Goldman you know who. Expect a challenge of resistance early in the week. If this market really is going to turn it needs to get above the 1.1652 level. This hits a critical resistance area that is holding this market down. A rally above here should spark fresh buying that targets 1.2275.

Friday yielded a Buy signal, and the low from Friday is a key pivot for direction. A failure here sets this market up for slamming new lows. Trading under here confirms USD strength. Most likely it would take higher yields to make this occur. If this happens it would negate the Buy signal, and confirm that the Bears are ready to press new move lows. 1.0461 is the longer-term downside target.

USDCHF Weekly Outlook:

An early test of support is likely this week after Friday’s sell signal. The USDCHF is eyeballing the 0.9840 level. This is a key pivot holding up the short-term trend. Trading under here confirms weakness, and a slide that targets the 0.9758-0.9664 downside correction zone. 0.9266 is the long-term downside objective.

Only a breach of Friday’s high reverses the outlook. Trading above here negates the sell signal, and gives the Bulls new life. 1.0271 is the first upside target for a fresh leg higher. 1.0344 is the extended upside level to shoot for. If this scenario is to unfold it will likely take another boost in yields to help spark this type of market action.

USDJPY Weekly Outlook:

Here is a market that aims to disappoint. Key off yields this week. If the interest rates ease then it is likely that the USDJPY will sell off and test support. Bears are looking at the 145.03 level. If the market dips under here it is likely that fresh selling will unfold. A correction is long over do. Trading below 145.03 targets the 141.15-138.77 downside correction zone. This should be about all that can be expected from a correction lower unless there is BOJ intervention. (Yeah right.)

Trading above 145.03 up to 151.95 will be a tough go at it. Volatility is high, and market direction is spinning like a compass in an electrical storm. Watch the interest rates. If there is a strong sell off in interest rates then it is likely to spark fresh buying in the USDJPY. Above 151.95 the Bulls are targeting the 153.22 level.

AUDUSD Weekly Outlook:

Aussie Bulls are looking to press resistance after Friday’s Buy signal. A challenge of 0.6526 is on the menu. If the market gets above here it is likely to set off fresh buying and a rally up towards the 0.6650-0.6762 upside correction zone. This is all that is expected from a higher trading market. The long-term outlook is Bearish for the AUDUSD. The current leg higher is currently viewed as a correction only.

A slide below last Thursday’s low negates the new buy signal for a break that targets the 0.6212 critical support pivot level. Use caution with all trading under here. Downside selling pressure is likely to build. 0.5988 is the extended sell off objective.

NZDUSD Weekly Outlook:

NZDUSD Bulls are looking to make a run for the highs. Expect an early test of resistance at last weeks highs. A fresh wave of buying is likely to fuel a move up into the 0.5992-0.6106 upside correction zone. Trading back in this area is viewed as a correction. This market has too many overall negative factors going for it. Watch interest rates. If there is a rally in rates then this market is likely to fall back on support fast.

Use last Thursday’s low as a pivot for direction. A failure from here confirms that the Bears are back in control targeting the 0.5602 critical support level. This is a key level holding the market afloat. Trading under here confirms weakness, and a fresh leg lower that targets the 0.5365 area.

USDCAD Weekly Outlook:

The recent Head & Shoulders sell pattern is now reinforced by Friday’s Sell signal. New move lows target the 1.3351-1.3203 downside correction zone. The long-term trend is a Bull. The current sell off is viewed as a correction, and can turn on a dime. Watch yields. If yields start to rise, then the current sell off may turn around fast.

Downside momentum is too strong to fight right now. Wait for a valid signal before jumping in front of this train. A rally above Thursday’s high is needed to confirm any true strength. A rally above here negates the Bearish outlook, and targets the 1.3850 level. If the USDCAD pierces this area, then upside momentum is likely to ignite fresh buying. 1.4170 is the longer-term upside target.