MPTEST093022
Note: I will be recording today’s Trader’s Edge show from 8-9 a.m. Please email me at steve@tfnn.com if there is anything specific that I can review for you.
Above is the 125-year seasonal cycle pattern for the DOW during mid-term election years. The red vertical line represents today which suggests that a rally should unfold. Both the DOW and the DOW equity futures contract have bottoming patterns in place.
However, the 37-year NDX 100 mid-term seasonal chart suggests otherwise as it does not bottom for another week or so.
As we look to the charts for Apple, we see daily and weekly AB=CD down patterns that need bullish reversal candles to confirm a bottom pattern.
With such confusing messages, the best thing we can do is assess the data as it arrives. The 2-hour equity futures charts each have bottoming patterns, so its time to see if price is able to take out TD9 breakdown resistance on any rallies. As you will see below, TAS market breadth remains bearish for the four main time frames we monitor, meaning that rallies should expect to be sold.
The area of the market that looks most interesting from a trade setup is the mining sector. The daily time frame shows RMI bottoms for both gold and the GDX. Silver found support at the bottom of its daily profile yesterday and with price trading above its profile levles, Wednesday may have been the “C” point of an AB=CD up pattern. Gold needs a close above the bottom of its daily profile 1670.40 today to suggest that it may have bottomed.
The weekly charts are where the problems lie. Gold needs a bullish reversal candle to confirm a “buy the D point” pattern. Silver neeeds a bullish reversal candle to confirm a RMI bottom. The GDX needs a close above its red OUL to suggest a change in trend may be unfolding. Let’s see how the day unfolds.
The message of the index ETF’s as of last evening close was:
The SPY negated its TD9 bottom by closing below 393.03, however, Wednesday’s price action generated a “buy the D point” pattern which remains active as long as price closes above 360.87.
The QQQ maintains its TD9 bottom.
The DIA still maintains its “buy the D point” pattern.
The IWM retains its TD9 bottom pattern.
In summary, each of the index ETF’s still have bottoming pattern.
A look at the daily charts for the sectors that make up the S&P 500 show that:
The sectors that negated buy signals yesterday are the XLK, XLP, XLY and XLRE.
A market overview as of 6:55 a.m.
The ES mini has both a buy the D point and TD9 bottom pattern. A new daily profile has formed with support at 3645 and resistance at 3807. Price should target its OUL, 3736 ish area and a move above that would bring 3807 into play.
The spot VIX index remains above its 50-day EMA, which is a bearish directional signal for the S&P 500.
The NQ has a TD9 bottom pattern that found resistance at its OUL yesterday which is a bearish message, however the botom of its profile has acted as support. It is not clear whether support or resistance is going to fail.
The YM has both a buy the D point and TD9 bottom pattern. A new daily profile has formed with support at 29123 and resistance at 30545 & 31256. Price should target its OUL, 29778 ish area and a move above that would bring 30545 into play. We do note that the profile levels on the white background charts is different than the black background charts. We will use bot sets of data. Profile support is the same for both calculations.
The U.S. dollar index has a RMI top which has taken price back to profile support. A close below 111.91 would suggest lower price with its TD9 breakout area being a price target.
The daily chart for Gold shows a confirmed TD9, RMI and “buy the D point” bottom patterns. Price is attempting to get back inside its daily profile and may be targeting 1695 next.
The daily for Silver shows that price is trading above its OUL and profile which suggests a run for its recent high.
The daily for Copper shows a TD9 bottom pattern with price above its OUL which suggests a further rally. Resistance resides at 3.463, 3.526 & 3.558.
The daily chart for Light Sweet Crude shows a TD9 bottom pattern and if price can remain above its OUL and bottom of its new daily profile (81.47) price may target the 86.68 – 88.70 area.
The daily chart for Natural Gas shows an AB=CD down pattern that needs a bullish reversal candle to confirm a bottom. A TD9 bottom pattern has formed which suggests a run for its OUL, 7.37.
The daily time frame for the 30-year T=bond shows a TD9 bottom pattern and with price above its OUL a run for the 129 – 131 area is likely.
In overnight trading,
Markets in Asia closed mixed last evening:
The Shanghai index has an AB=CD down pattern and a recent TD9 bottom failure suggesting a run for its May low.
The Hang Seng has a TD9 bottom pattern which suggests a run for its OUL.
The Nikkei 225 negated its TD9 bottom pattern which suggests a run for its June low.
Markets in Europe are trading higher as of 6:05 a.m. this morning:
The FTSE has formed both a TD9 & RMI bottom pattern which suggests a run for its OUL.
The DAX has formed a TD9 bottom pattern which suggests a run for its OUL.
Major currencies shows that as of 6:06 a.m.:
The U.S. dollar index has a RMI top which has taken price back to profile support. A close below 111.91 would suggest lower price with its TD9 breakout area being a price target.
The euro has a RMI bottom pattern and with price above its OUL, a further counter trend rally is likely with its recent high being its price target.
The Yen has a TD9 top and RMI top which has not really gotten any traction.
The Great Brittish Pound has a TD9 bottom and with price above its OUL, a run for the 1.115 area is likely.
The Canadian dollar completed a TD9 top which suggests a run for its OUL.
The Sweedish Krona completed a TD9 top and with price below its OUL, the 10.67 area becomes a target.
The Swiss Franc completed a TD9 top and with price below its OUL, a run for the .955 area is likely.
U.S. equity futures are trading higher as of 6:18 this morning:
The ES mini has both a buy the D point and TD9 bottom pattern. A new daily profile has formed with support at 3645 and resistance at 3807. Price should target its OUL, 3736 ish area and a move above that would bring 3807 into play.
The NQ has a TD9 bottom pattern that found resistance at its OUL yesterday which is a bearish message, however the botom of its profile has acted as support. It is not clear whether support or resistance is going to fail.
The YM has both a buy the D point and TD9 bottom pattern. A new daily profile has formed with support at 29123 and resistance at 30545 & 31256. Price should target its OUL, 29778 ish area and a move above that would bring 30545 into play. We do note that the profile levels on the white background charts is different than the black background charts. We will use bot sets of data. Profile support is the same for both calculations.
The RTY has a TD9 bottom pattern with its OUL being a price target, 1721 ish area. A new daily profile has formed with support at 1665.75 and resistance at 1757.
Weekly equity futures charts show that:
At the moment, it is only the YM that is trading below its June low.
The YM negated its June RMI bottom last week. The YM needs a new bullish reversal candle to confirm its next RMI bottom. The ES, NQ and YM still maintain their RMI bottoms, but that could change by days end.
Multi time frame charts for the equity futures charts show that:
As of 6:27 a.m., the ES mini charts show:
The monthly chart is testing TD9 breakout support.
The weekly chart shows that its June RMI bottom is being tested and a close below 3657.25 today would negate this buy pattern.
The daily chart shows a completed TD9 bottom and “buy the D point” pattern. Price should target its OUL and a close above that would suggest a run for the top of its new daily porfile, 3807. Profile support resides at 3645.
As of 6:28 a.m., the NQ charts show:
The monthly is trading below TD9 breakout support, which brings its next TD9 support level into play, 7427.50.
The weekly chart shows that its June RMI bottom remains intact, but a close below 11146.25 today would negate this buy signal.
The daily chart shows a completed TD9 bottom pattern that took price to its red OUL where it found resistance, which is a bearish indication, however, the bottom of its daily profile has acted as support. It is not clear whether support or resistance will win this battle.
As of 6:33 a.m., the YM charts show:
The monthly chart shows that price is trading below its June lows and a close below 29740 today would signal an AB=CD down pattern.
The weekly chart shows that price negated its June RMI bottom pattern which suggests lower price.
The daily chart shows a completed TD9 and “buy the D point” bottom, both which suggest a run for its OUL, in the 29781 area. A new daily profile has formed with support at 29123 and resistance at 31256.
As of 6:35 a.m., the RTY charts show:
The monthly is trading into its TD9 bottom pattern which would be negated with a close below 1647.60 on Friday.
The weekly shows that its RMI bottom is being tested but still remains intact. A close below 1647.60 today would negate this buy signal.
The daily shows that a TD9 bottom pattern which suggests a run for its OUL, the 1721 area. A new profile has formed with support at 1665 and resistance at 1757.
When it comes to market breadth:
TAS market breadth for the NQ shows bearish crossovers for all four time frames.
TAS market breadth for the ES shows bearish crossovers for all four time frames.
Above are the TAS market breadth indicators for the sectors that make up the S&P 500.
This link provides further explanation of the speed dials & the meaning of their percentages
In summary, the wheel of the odometers represent:
1. The percentage of the market that is bullish, trading above profiles (resistance) for its time frame, represented by the amount of green on the dial.
2. The percentage of the market that is neutral, trading between profiles (support & resistance) for its time frame, represented by the amount of blue on the dial.
3. The percentage of the market that is bearish, trading below profiles (support) for its time frame, represented by the amount of red on the dial.
4. The percentage displayed within the dial represents the net percent of bulls vs. bearish. If 50% of the TAS profiles are bullish and 20% of the TAS profiles are bearish, then the percentage in the speed dial would be 30%.
The NYSE Advance/Decline Oscillator is working off its extreme oversold condition.
The spot VIX index remains above its 50-day EMA and therefore sellers are in control of the S&P 500. However, a “sell the D point” pattern formed yesterday which suggests a run for its OUL in the 29.60 area. Should that unfold, a furhter rally would be likely.
In the commodity space as of 6:43 a.m.:
As of 6:44 a.m., the Gold charts show that:
The monthly chart shows that price is trading into its bullish structured profile support area.
The weekly chart needs a bullish reversal candle to confirm a “buy the D point” pattern.
The daily chart shows a confirmed TD9, RMI and “buy the D point” bottom patterns. Price is attempting to get back inside its daily profile and may be targeting 1695 next.
The 2-hour chart shows a TD9 top with price testing its green OUL at the moment.
As of 6:46 a.m., Silver charts show:
The monthly chart needs a bullish reversal candle to confirm a “buy the D point” pattern.
The weekly chart needs a bullish reversal candle to confirm a RMI bottom pattern.
The daily shows that price is trading above its OUL and profile which suggests a run for its recent high.
As of 6:48 a.m., Copper charts show:
The monthly chart shows that price may be targeting the 2.42 area.
The weekly chart shows a confirmed “buy the D point” pattern, however price continues to find resistance at its OUL.
The daily shows a TD9 bottom pattern with price above its OUL which suggests a further rally. Resistance resides at 3.463, 3.526 & 3.558.
As of 6:49 a.m., the charts for Light Sweet Crude show:
The monthly chart suggests a run for 70.61.
The weekly chart has formed an AB=CD down pattern.
The daily chart shows a TD9 bottom pattern and if price can remain above its OUL and bottom of its new daily profile (81.47) price may target the 86.68 – 88.70 area.
As of 6:50 a.m., the chart for Natural Gas show:
The monthly chart is forming a RMI top which should take price back to its OUL.
The weekly chart has a RMI top with its recent low being a target.
The daily chart shows an AB=CD down pattern that needs a bullish reversal candle to confirm a bottom. A TD9 bottom pattern has formed which suggests a run for its OUL, 7.37.
As of 7:40 a.m., soft commodity charts show that:
Wheat is consolidating within its new daily profile as well as trend line support and trend line resistance.
Soybeans are consolidating within its daily profile.
Corn is consolidating within its daily profile.
Coffee is consolidating within its new profile as well as trend line support and resistance.
Sugar has a RMI bottom that has led to a consolidation within its daily profile.
Cocoa has a confirmed RMI bottom and with price above the center of its bullish structured profile, a run for the 2395 area is likely.
As of 6:15 a.m., the 30-year T-Bond will complete a TD9 bottom pattern today. The weekly chart needs a bullish reversal candle at days end to confirm a RMI bottom. The daily time frame shows that a TD9 bottom pattern and with price above its OUL, a run for the 129 – 131 area is likely.
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