Each of the U.S. indices we track closed lower on the day.

 

 

The ES still retains its TD9 & “buy the D point” patterns, while the NQ retains its “buy the D point” pattern. The YM negated its TD9 and “buy the D point” pattern today and the RTY does not have a bottom signal and price is now below its TD9 breakout level, 1806.80.

In other words, we have mixed messages at days end.

 

Today’s index signal changes:

 

 The DOW cash index closed below the low of its TD9 bottom today which negates its buy signal.

 The Russell 2000 cash index closed below the low of its TD9 and “buy the D point” bottom and thus negates its buy signals.

 The Nasdaq Composite negated its TD9 and “buy the D point” bottom by closing below 11546.52.

 

Today’s index tests and rejections of bottom patterns.

 

 The S&P 500 tested and rejected its TD9 low, 3903.65.

 The NYSE tested and rejected its TD9 & “buy the D point” bottom, 14576.25.

 

What the other indices did today.

 

 The NDX 100 which negated its TD9 bottom last Friday needs a bullish reversal candle to form a “buy the D point” pattern.

 The Semiconductor index still retains its “buy the D point” pattern.

 The DOW Transports may form a TD9 bottom pattern between tomorrow and Friday.

 The NYSE retains its “buy the D point” pattern.

 

Again, more mixed messages, which you will also find below in the discussion about the S&P 500 sectors.

 

 

As mentioned above, the NQ retained its daily “buy the D point” pattern and its OUL recently changed color, which typically means that price and the OUL should test each other over the coming sessions.

Going into this evening’s session, it’s only the 30-minute NQ that has a bottom pattern. A close below 11930 would signal a further move lower. A clsoe above 12221.75 would signal higher price.

 

Have a great evening!

 

Current Positions:

 

 

 

 

We began a long trade in the NDX 100 which was negated last Friday.

We stayed with this long position because the NQ did not negagte its “buy the D point” pattern on Friday and today was a test and rejection of that patterns low, 12017.75.

Today’ our stops were hit for the QQQ and QLD long positions, but the 3x ETF, TQQQ remains open.

 

Below are charts as of the close for the index ETF’s and the sectors that make up the S&P 500 for their daily time frame.

 

 

 

 

 The QQQ negated its TD9 bottom pattern last Friday when price closed below 298.44.

 The SPY retains its TD9 bottom pattern by closing above 390.04.

 The DIA negated its TD9 bottom by closing below 312.70 today.

 The IWM negated last Thursday’s “buy the D point” pattern when price closed below its Hammer candle, 178.90.

 The XLK retained its TD9 and “buy the D point” bottom by closing above 131.78.

 The XLV retained its TD9 and “buy the D point” bottom by closing above 124.76.

 The XLF retains its TD9 bottom pattern by closing above 32.51.

 The XLC negated its TD9 and “buy the D point” patterns last Friday.

 

 

 The XLE has a “sell the D point” pattern and with price below the bottom of its daily profile, a further retracement may unfold.

 The XLY retains its TD9 and “buy the D point” patterns by closing above 152.93.

 The XLP negated its TD9 and “buy the D point” bottom patterns by closing below 72.33 today.

 The XLU retained both its TD9 and “buy the D point” patterns by closing above 74.05 today.

 The XLB needs a bullish reversal candle to confirm a Gartley Buy pattern.

 The XLRE negated its TD9 bottom pattern last Friday.

 

Chart legend : The red/green line is the Oscillator Unchanged Line. A green line means that the Price Oscillator (the difference between the 19 & 39 day EMA) is above zero and when the line is red, it means that the Price Oscillator is below zero. When price is above a green OUL, it is a bullish condition and when price is below a red OUL, it is a bearish condition. When price is below a green OUL, it suggests a retracement back to support and when price is above a red OUL, it suggest a countertrend rally to resistance. Black number are TD9 Setup counts. A 9 count indicates an impending trend change may be near. The red and green lines are the TD9 breakout support (red) and breakdown resistance (green) levels that define important trend reversal price levels.

 

Below are charts as of the close for the cash indices for their daily time frame.

 

 

Chart legend : The red/green line is the Oscillator Unchanged Line. A green line means that the Price Oscillator (the difference between the 19 & 39 day EMA) is above zero and when the line is red, it means that the Price Oscillator is below zero. When price is above a green OUL, it is a bullish condition and when price is below a red OUL, it is a bearish condition. When price is below a green OUL, it suggests a retracement back to support and when price is above a red OUL, it suggest a countertrend rally to resistance. Black number are TD9 Setup counts. A 9 count indicates an impending trend change may be near. The red and green lines are the TD9 breakout support (red) and breakdown resistance (green) levels that define important trend reversal price levels.

 

Below are charts as of the close for the cash indices for their weekly time frame.

 

 

The blue lines on these charts are the levels that price must close above this week in order to maintain their current TD9 count. Our current thinking is that weekly TD9 tops will identify the next sell signal and closes below these levels would require us to reassess.

 

Trading above a green OUL is bullish, while trading above a red OUL is more of a countertrend move and trading below a red OUL is bearish.

 

Below are charts as of the close for the cash indices for their monthly time frame.

 

 

Below are charts as of the close for the cash indices for their yearly time frame.

 

 

Instruments that trade above a prior year high are bullish, whereas trading below that high suggests something else. Many of the indices have TD9 topping patterns which suggests caution and a decline for potentially the next 1-3 years. Likewise, trading below last years low is a bearish signal.

 

Below are the current market outlook signals for various portfolios and individual stocks.

 

 

Above is a typical wealth portfolio which you can use as a guide for your long term portfolio . Color highlighted signals reflect a change in the outlook or and RMI indication since its previous time frame session. If the time frame has not completed, the signal change which is in real time will not be confirmed until the period has ended.

 

 

Above is a typical wealth portfolio suggested by TD Ameritrade which you can use as a guide for your long term portfolio . Color highlighted signals reflect a change in the outlook or and RMI indication since its previous time frame session. If the time frame has not completed, the signal change which is in real time will not be confirmed until the period has ended.

 

 

Above are signals for the DOW 30 stocks as of the close . Color highlighted signals reflect a change in the outlook or and RMI indication since its previous time frame session. If the time frame has not completed, the signal change which is in real time will not be confirmed until the period has ended.

 

 

Above are signals for many of the worldwide indices that can make up the portion of your portfolio that you wish to allocate to foreign equities of the close . Color highlighted signals reflect a change in the outlook or and RMI indication since its previous time frame session. If the time frame has not completed, the signal change which is in real time will not be confirmed until the period has ended.

 

 

Above are signals for the IBD 20 stocks as of the close . Color highlighted signals reflect a change in the outlook or and RMI indication since its previous time frame session. If the time frame has not completed, the signal change which is in real time will not be confirmed until the period has ended.

 

 

Above are signals for most of the components that make up the majority of the Mining sector as of the close . Color highlighted signals reflect a change in the outlook or and RMI indication since its previous time frame session. If the time frame has not completed, the signal change which is in real time will not be confirmed until the period has ended.

 

 

Above are signals for the IBD 50 stocks as of the close . Color highlighted signals reflect a change in the outlook or and RMI indication since its previous time frame session. If the time frame has not completed, the signal change which is in real time will not be confirmed until the period has ended.

 

Disclaimer: Trading in securities such as stocks, options, indexes, currencies, and futures involve risk and should not be undertaken without due diligence and serious independent study. Options, stocks, currencies, and futures trading, involve substantial risk. Subscribers may carry out their trading based on what they learn from “Mastering Probability” however all risks of potential financial losses are the customer’s responsibility. TFNN, Corp. and/or Steve Rhodes will be in no way liable for financial losses resulting from trading decisions based on this newsletter. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Reproduction in whole, or in part, is not permitted without prior written consent. Copyright 2021 all rights reserved.

 

 

The required conditions that make up the outlook for each status signal are as follows:

1.  Breakout Bull

a. Price Oscillator is above zero

b. Price is trading above the OUL

c. Price is above the Top of the TAS box
‎ ‎

2.   Strong Bull

a. Price Oscillator is above zero

b. Price is trading below the OUL

c. Price is above the Top of the TAS box
‎

3.   Bullish – Buy TAS & OUL Support

a. Price Oscillator is above zero

b. Price is trading above the OUL

c. Price is trading within the box
‎ ‎

4.   Consolidating Bull - Hold

a. Price Oscillator is above zero

b. Price is trading below the OUL

c. Price is trading within the box
‎ ‎

5.   Undecided Bull

a. Price Oscillator is above zero

b. Price is trading above the OUL

c. Price is trading below the bottom of the box
‎ ‎

6.   Bull Over – Take Profits – Go Short

a. Price Oscillator is above zero

b. Price is trading below the OUL

c. Price is trading below the bottom of the box
‎ ‎

7.   Breakdown Bear

a. Price Oscillator is below zero

b. Price is trading below the OUL

c.  Price is below the Bottom of the TAS box
‎ ‎

8.   Strong Bear

a. Price Oscillator is below zero

b. Price is trading above the OUL

c. Price is below the Bottom of the TAS box
‎ ‎

9.   Bearish – Sell TAS & OUL Resistance

a. Price Oscillator is below zero

b. Price is trading below the OUL

c. Price is trading within the box

10.   Consolidating Bear - Hold

a. Price Oscillator is below zero

b. Price is trading above the OUL

c. Price is trading within the box
‎ ‎

11.   Undecided Bear

a. Price Oscillator is below zero

b. Price is trading below the OUL

c. Price is trading above the top of the box
‎ ‎

12.   Bear Over – Take Profits – Go Long

a. Price Oscillator is below zero

b. Price is trading above the OUL

c. Price is trading above the top of the box