We got stopped out of our S&P shorts for tiny losses last week looking for a market pull back on the Jobs number Friday. The Jobs number smashed all expectations, and while rates have risen and the dollar has strengthened, the market has risen since then. 

This market is relentlessly strong on the data that is supporting a strong economy, regardless of when the Fed may be cutting and how long those cuts may be pushed back.

We have a Fed meeting Wednesday, and do not expect the market to be freaked out if Powell states the obvious, which is that this economy is still hot and they should be in no rush to cut.

The 10 year is currently yielding 4.48% right now, which equities seem more than comfortable with.

The bearish scenario I see for this market is that the economy does begin to cool, and the Fed finally has the data to cut, and equities will finally see bad news as bad news and may trade lower on the data.

I've included a chart of NVDA, as it has gone post-split today 1 for 10, and is trading at $122.69. It just came within pennies of completing and AB = CD formation, after a nice .382 pull back to the April lows. 

It will be interesting to see how Powell handles the press conference on Wednesday after the jobs number beat every estimate, and wages continue to run hot at 0.4% m/m and 4.1% y/y.

I considered going short NVDA but that stock is just too hot right now, and the data on this economy continues to be hot, but with it sitting right at the AB=CD number I could see a consolidation for a period of time, but watch out if this economy really does show any signs of cooling, as equities will not trade higher if the Fed needs to cut to help a cooling economy.

Stay tuned for updates!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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