Rocket Equities and Options Report 06-24-24
Markets are a bit mixed this morning with the S&P higher, as NVDA drags down the Nasdaq100.
NVDA has now lost almost $500B in market cap just from where it was trading early Thursday morning when it was above $140. It is currently trading at about $120 and has nearly 25B shares outstanding after splitting 10 for 1.
I've been talking about the completed AB=CD in NVDA that brought it up to about the $125 range. It only traded above this area on very weak volume, and now volume is picking up on the downside. NVDA looks to be heading back to the $100 range, filling the gap from their May 21st earnings, which would still be more than a 100% return from where it started the year, and would value the company at almost $2.5T. It was trading at $93.25 on May 22nd. It's only June 24th. This is not some dire prediction, it's just bringing some clarity and context into the extremely volatile swings NVDA is having right now in both directions, even with a very promising future for some time to come.
Gold pulled back huge on Friday and has bounced a bit higher today. Gold continues to trade between the $2300 to $2400 price range, and has held up relatively well considering the strength of the dollar.
We get the Fed's preferred inflation gauge the PCE on Friday morning, which should add some volatility into the markets to end the week. The market has already priced in that 2 cuts are coming this year, and I think that's a best case scenario, so do not expect bond yields to plummet from here on a 10 year basis.
The 10 year currently sits at about 4.27%, down from 4.7% just last month - so the action is already priced in to a certain degree. Do not expect the 10 year to drop anywhere below 4%, as that will be a floor if we get any move to the downside on yields. We will get more information on Friday with the PCE at 8:30am ET.
Disney is holding up at the $100 level acting as a floor and level of resistance. Disney filled the gap from where it jumped higher on February earnings and is consolidating at these levels. We continue to watch Disney for any signs of weakness below the $100 level as we may exit if it looks for another leg down.
The VIX spiked higher this morning before giving it up as the market traded higher. We are still at a 13 handle. Watch the VIX for any spikes as this market looks a bit shaky at record levels and multiples that have gotten a bit lofty in certain equities that have driven this market to all-time highs.
Positions:
Long DIS at $102.25. The stop is $88.97. DIS is trading at $102.35.
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