Gold has nearly completed a 1 to 1 move on three different time frames, a shorter-term daily basis for just 2024, an intermediate basis since the start of 2016, as well as a longer-term monthly basis going back to near the lows of 2001. 

Gold looks to consolidate at these levels or trade lower in the near-term, yet longer term the pressure will be for higher prices. 

Here are the 3 charts:

The Dollar is approaching the critical area of 100 and if it breaks that it is on the way to 90.

The market is rolling over a bit as we approach the end of September trading. The ES is approaching the AB = CD price point of around 6,136. The NQ already completed its AB = CD on the last acceleration higher. Last week in the ES we did about 5.5M shares, this is compared with almost 9.5M shares the week of July 15th on its previous high.

The market is pricing in around 1.75% of cuts by the Fed's June 2025 meeting, which is only 6 meetings away. That's more than 1/4 point cut every meeting for the next 6 straight meetings. This is already priced into the market. Do not expect yields to drop dramatically from here as there is a distinct chance we may not get the pace of cuts that the market is expecting. There could be some headwinds as we trading into the final 3 months of the year, with an election in November, and a port strike that is expected to begin at midnight tonight, among many other factors. 

The VIX remains slightly elevated from recent norms as the market is pricing in some level of risk as we look for any signs of economic weakness on the heels of the Fed feeling the need to cut 50basis points. Stay tuned for updates!

Disclaimer: Trading in securities such as stocks, options, indexes, currencies, and futures involve risk and should not be undertaken without due diligence and serious independent study. Options, stocks, currencies, and futures trading involve substantial risk. Subscribers may carry out their trading based on what they learn from “Rocket Equities & Options” however all risks of potential financial losses are the customer’s responsibility. TFNN, Corp. will be in no way liable for financial losses resulting from trading decisions based on this newsletter. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Reproduction in whole, or in part, is not permitted without prior written consent. Copyright 2024 all rights reserved.