Markets are trading lower to start off a short trading week with a couple large data points for jobs and the economy.

Friday at 8:30am EST we get the Jobs number for August with Non-farm payrolls for the month, we also get wage data included in that report as well. 

We get the ADP private payrolls tomorrow morning. Sometimes these reports can vary wildly so don't read too much into ADP, and then you have the fact that we had huge downward revisions to the jobs numbers for last month, so that may play into any market reaction as well.

The first chart is a 30 minute going back about 10 days, and I talked about on my show this morning how many large almost 1% moves we have had just going back 10 days, and that a VIX at 16 represents the market pricing in at least a 1% move in the SPY every 1/3 days, and meanwhile look at the last 10 days and actually how highly volatile the market has been over that time, while relatively flat since it has traded in both directions. 

The second chart is a daily chart of the ES. You can see the dramatic bearish engulfing candle that is forming, taking out the entire consolidation area it has been in for the last 10 days, which is the entire trading range of the first 30-minute chart.

NVDA is down 7.5% so far today. I have included charts of NVDA, MSFT, AMZN, META, AAPL, and GOOG. Check out how far these stocks have risen and look at where some of the reasonable levels are, where a pull-back could just be a natural retracement in a healthy growing market. 

The market is struggling at these levels, and the bearish engulfing candle today in the ES with volume is not a good sign for the strength of this market heading into the jobs number and the first cut in 15 days.

We may look for a position ahead of Friday's jobs number, stay tuned for updates!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Disclaimer: Trading in securities such as stocks, options, indexes, currencies, and futures involve risk and should not be undertaken without due diligence and serious independent study. Options, stocks, currencies, and futures trading involve substantial risk. Subscribers may carry out their trading based on what they learn from “Rocket Equities & Options” however all risks of potential financial losses are the customer’s responsibility. TFNN, Corp. will be in no way liable for financial losses resulting from trading decisions based on this newsletter. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Reproduction in whole, or in part, is not permitted without prior written consent. Copyright 2024 all rights reserved.