We got an ADP private payrolls number this morning that exceeded expectations and the market has traded in both directions since the open. Private jobs rose by 568K for September, ahead of the 425K expected. The market is expecting about 500K jobs added for NFP on Friday. We have a VIX that has remain elevated for an extended period of time and now sits at 22.76, ahead of Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls for the month of September.

We had the QQQ trade right to the bottom of the channel line and bounce, twice. Check out the 15 minute chart this week of the QQQ below where you can see the index bounce right at the lower boundary line - keep your eye on this for support and if it breaks watch out.

There was an interesting article out from Bloomberg this morning talking about the valuations of the tech stocks, specifically the FANG+ index, have come down considerably vs. the S&P500. The NYSE FANG+ Index is now priced at 27.6 times estimated earnings for the coming year vs. 20.2 times for the S&P500 index. That's the narrowest margin since December of 2018. The Chinese stocks BABA and BIDU have brought the index down dramatically, but so have some of the US components, with Facebook the cheapest at only 19 times earnings, which is actually cheaper than the S&P500.

The S&P currently sits only about 240 points or 5.27% off of its all-time highs made September 3rd as we came into our last Non-Farm Payroll number. Just looking at a potential .382 from the run in the ES that started one year ago, that could bring the index down another 250-300 points easily and that would only be a natural retracement still within a bull market.

We start earnings season in the next couple of weeks and my general feeling is that the market may be under pricing the risk that all the profits may disappear even with rising revenues. There are many factors that are going to hit earnings this season, almost too many to quantify, from rising wages, to rising oil, to rising commodity input costs, to shipping and logistic delays, to chip shortages persisting, etc., etc., etc.

With so much up in the air for earnings season, and the pressure building on the jobs numbers to start to deliver over the next few months, I expect we're in for a volatile few months as we end the year. We also have the potential for some tax selling with markets still near all-time highs and the potential for increased taxes in the future.

And we still have the debt ceiling debate looming which has the potential to really throw things into chaos of politicians in Washington don't get their act together and stop grandstanding with the faith and credit of our country at stake. It's absolutely insane that we as a country might want to default on our debt and ruin our credit rating for generations to come. You can try and rationalize that sentiment all you want if you think America has too much debt, but not paying our bills is not the recipe that will deliver the future we all want. You can't just say "let's just take our lumps now because the debt is too much and we can't burden future generations." That's not how it works, and if we ever chose that path then the impact would be devastating throughout all areas of the economy.

The money has already been spent, and we as a country have chosen to take out a loan to pay for our past purchases. In some cases, the people that loaned our country money to pay our nation's bills are many US corporations and US retirees holding US Notes and Bonds - a default would have a cascading impact that is almost hard to imagine. As someone who just had a son, I think our national debt is a huge problem that needs to be reigned in by both parties, yet choosing to default for political reasons is the most foolish course of action we could take at this time, and would in no way lead to a prosperous future for Americans any time soon. These aren't theoretical bills that have to be paid. In many instances, you and I are the ones that the government owes money that we have lent them, whether through retirement funds parked in Notes and Bonds, or owning shares of companies that own Treasuries, or through a variety of other avenues that would be hit hard.

On a 15 minute basis, the QQQ has bounced right near the bottom trend line of its daily channel

Disney continues to consolidate above its .382 with support at the $170 price point.

Uber is trading up nicely today in a red market, up almost 3% and continuing to show strength since breaking out of its downtrend channel.

WMT has pulled back from its recent high of $152.57 and is now sitting at the .618, which also correlates to where WMT had support back in May and June. WMT has a dividend yield of 1.61%.

MCD continues to trade higher with strenght and is on its way to $255. MCD has a dividend yield of 2.25%.

CRM is consolidating a bit after completing its AB = CD projection of $278.90 in the last 2 weeks. CRM reached a high of $286.36 when they upgraded their fiscal outlook a couple of weeks ago. CRM is a strong growth company in the cloud and is a member of the DOW30.

Equity portfolio:
We bought ZM at $294.00 and got stopped out at $268.50 for a loss of $25.50 or 8.67%. ZM is trading at $252.93.

Long half position in WMT at $140.91. WMT is trading at $136.78. Stop is $125.31.

We are effectively long CRM at $215.35. CRM is trading at $271.98. Stop is $193.64.

Long half position in DIS at $118.63. Disney is trading at $173.17. Stop is $98.45.

Long half position in UBER at $31.50. Uber is trading at $46.93. Stop is $26.24.

Long half position in MCD at $216.91. MCD is trading at $243.38. Stop is $189.50.