Disney missed on earnings last week and the stock traded down hard. The stock has now given back 50% of the run it had over the last year. With the sharp pull back last week, NFLX now has a market cap above Disney at $301B compared to Disney at just $288B. In relative value it's tough to make the case that NFLX is on par with Disney when you think about the general TV business they still operate that includes ESPN, along with the parks and the brands that Disney owns. The pandemic has not been kind to Disney's parks and movie theaters, yet they benefited greatly with the timing of the launch of their streaming service just months before the world locked down.

It's almost tough to remember the early estimates for Disney's subscriber growth. Disney itself originally was looking for 60-90 million subscribers by 2024. They just reported 118.1 million subscribers and it is still 2021. The problem is that they only added 2.1 million subscribers last quarter, the smallest number since they launched for a 90 day period. They also lost $630 million in the direct to consumer business, when the market was expecting a loss of $438 million. They still made $1.64 billion in their traditional tv business. They also made $640 million in their theme parks business, but again the market was looking for $864 million. The company reiterated their goal of 260 million subscribers by 2024. Netflix's profit for their most recent quarter was $1.45B for their entire business.

Analysts are now generally more bullish on Disney vs. Netflix with average price targets that imply a 26% upside for Disney and only a 4% upside for Netflix. Netflix is priced at about twice Disney’s enterprise value to projected Ebitda, according to Bloomberg data. NFLX now sits at about 222 million subscribers to Disney+ with 118 million. Including Disney+, ESPN and Hulu subscribers, Disney recorded 179 million paying subscribers for the most recent quarter.

All of this points to the fact that I will be adding to Disney should it pull back to the $150 area, and have no plans to sell anytime soon. I have plenty of Disney in my account right now, and the pain of the pull back has been less than ideal, yet my conviction remains as strong as ever that in the longer term Disney remains well positioned to eventually breakout to the upside. This may take some time as Disney CEO Bob Chapek has indicated that strong subscriber growth is not expected until the 3rd and 4th quarter of the current fiscal year.

Uber is up more than 5% today as it continues its volatile trading. UBER traded to a recent high of$48.74 on volume of more than 45 million shares. and has pulled back on lighter volume. Uber has already done 15 million shares today and it is not even an hour into the day. This is good action with Uber up about 5% right now.

WMT is down about 2% today on some pretty strong numbers this morning. WMT may be filling the gap left open from October 18th at $142.01. Comp sales in the third quarter climbed 9.2% at US stores, excluding fuel, beating the avg. estimate of 7%. Comp sales at WMT's US stores will grow at 6% this year, excluding fuel, up from a prior forecast of 5%. Customers bought more items and paid more at WMT last quarter, with transactions rising 5.7% and the avg. ticket rising 3.3%.

MCD has just completed the AB = CD formation we've been talking about for some time. The real estate market continues to be on fire and MCD has benefited greatly from that trend recently, and I expect it will continue to do so.

CRM traded to all time highs last Monday and has pulled back a bit but is still near the top of its channel. line. CRM has earnings November 30th.

NCLH traded nicely higher to $29.45 on good volume and has pulled back on light volume. They announced a direct offering last night and the stock traded lower stopping us out today on the open at $24.50 for a $1.04 or 4.07% loss.

Wednesday before market: LOW, TGT, TJX
Wednesday after the bell: NVDA, CSCO, VSCO

Thursday before the market: KSS, M
Thursday after the bell: AMAT, INTU, BBWI, WSM

We bought NLCH $25.54 and got stopped out today at $24.50 for a $1.04 or 4.07% loss. NCLH is trading at $23.76.

Long half position in WMT at $140.91. WMT is trading at $143.90. Stop is $125.31.

We are effectively long CRM at $215.35. CRM is trading at $306.88. Stop is $193.64.

Long half position in DIS at $118.63. Disney is trading at $159.21. Stop is $98.45.

Long half position in UBER at $31.50. Uber is trading at $45.70. Stop is $26.24.

Long half position in MCD at $216.91. MCD is trading at $252.70. Stop is $189.50.