Happy New Year! We come into 2021 where we left off last year, with higher prices in the indices. The S&P Futures are up 13.5 points at 3,762.50. Commodities are rocking this morning with Gold up about $50. Bitcoin continues to trade parabolic reaching over $34K over the weekend.

We have one active option position in CRM - we sold a cash-secured-put in CRM that expires Fridat at the $217.50 price point. If CRM trades lower and we are assigned then we plan to take delivery for a position in our long term equity portfolio. If CRM stays above this level this week then we'll pocket the premium we collected and move on to the next trade.

CRM daily:

The VIX is slightly elevated this morning even with all the markets in positive territory, something to keep your eye on.

VIX Daily:

Disney is trading higher this morning, continuing its strength to the upside. Disney has traded from $117.23 on October 29th to $183.40 to end 2020, that's a $66.17 or 56.44% rise in 2 months. I bring this up because I believe Disney still has a lot more upside in the long term, yet be prepared for a possible natural pull back as we navigate the next 3-6 months as vaccinations are rolled out and the economy looks to open back up.

DIS daily:

DIS daily zoomed in on the last couple of months, showing that a .382 natural retracement could possibly have this stock trade as low as $157.81 and still be a strong stock with a bullish perspective:

Uber has had a similar run to end 2020, trading from $33.16 on October 30th, to $56.02 on December 9th, for a $22.86 or 68.94% rise in less than 2 months. A natural .382 retracement could bring UBER back to $47.22 in the short term. We are concerned with the long term and Uber is poised to trade higher in the next 6-12 months as travel and the economy begins to resemble some form of normalcy.

Uber daily:

MCD continues to trade within its consolidation. We want to see it get back within its uptrend channel.

I will have more updates out this week - I'm going through every trade we made in 2020 for a quick review, expect that out in the next couple of days. You should always review your trades to see what you can learn. Sometimes hindsight provides a clearer view of what you may have done right or wrong in a trade, and how that can help you shape future trades and investments.

I'm also scanning the market for equity and options positions. The VIX is elevated this morning as the markets look to open in positive territory, which means that volatility is still getting priced into this market and is here to stay. Stay tuned for updates this week!

2020 was my first year writing this letter, and I could not do what I do without the support of my subscribers - so thank you to all of you! Looking forward to making 2021 a great year!


Options Trades:
None

Short Term portfolio:
None active

Long Term portfolio:
We sold a Jan 8th CRM $217.50 put for about a credit of $2.40. This should be a cash secured put, meaning you have the cash to buy 100 shares if assigned the equity, which we would then hold as a position in our long term equity portfolio. CRM is trading at $223.45.

Long half position in DIS at $118.63. Disney is trading at $182.35. Stop is $98.45.
Long half position in UBER at $31.50. Uber is trading at $52.32. Stop is $26.24.
Long half position in MCD at $216.91. MCD is trading at $214.58. Stop is $189.50.

Timer Digest Signals: S&P: Bearish Gold: Bullish Bonds: Bullish