Markets behaved relatively well last week for the end of the CARES act and $600 unemployment stimulus with nothing in place to replace it as of now.

This is a huge week of earnings. AAPL, AMZN, and GOOG all report on Thursday, with about 1/3 S&P companies reporting their numbers this week, and 12 Dow stocks.

We are initiating a new position for our long term portfolio.

Uber is nearing its zone of support at around $29 to 30. We are going to initiate a half of a position in Uber for our long term portfolio. Uber comes out with their numbers on Aug 6th.

Buy a half position in Uber for our long term portfolio at market. I will add a stop in the near future.

Current long-term portfolio:
Buy 1/2 position in UBER at mkt.
Long 1/2 position in DIS at $118.63. Stop is $98.45.

Disney shares held up relatively well on Friday considering the news that they had pushed back a few of their major movies for release.

While daily cases in the US have settled at about 65k as of right now, there are small clues for hope in some of the numbers, at least in Florida which is one of the hardest hit states right now.

Florida's daily curve has dipped lower over the last 10 days. The 7-day average is down from 11,870 on July 17 and currently sits at 10,544 according to the NY Times data. The death curve is still on the rise, as deaths usually lag cases. 10,544 cases each day for my state is still an absurd number, but it's encouraging to see the numbers coming down for a change and hopefully that trend continues. Mask mandates have become more regular for local areas in Florida and some businesses like Walmart, Publix, and Target. At first glance those mandates appear to be flattening the Florida curve.

The positivity rate is still at 11.06% which is far above where is should be, but it appears to be decreasing from the numbers Florida was putting up in early July. The median age has settled at around 41 years old for Florida.

While I've highlighted that some of the hardest hits states recently have begun to see their curve flatten, there are other states that are now accelerating. The US curve has flattened at 65K cases a day, and if the curves are decreasing in the states above, then that means that the curves are rising in other states to keep the total at around 65K cases as of right now.

The nation's largest state California still rising and at about 10K cases a day:

Even some states that were hit hardest early on, like Massachusetts for example, are seeing a slight rise in their daily case curve as some form of normalcy tries to resume. Massachusetts' 7-day average is up to 300 from 187 on July 5th. That might seem like a small jump, but that's more than a 60% rise in 3 weeks.

The world’s biggest Covid-19 vaccine study got underway Monday with the first of 30,000 planned volunteers helping to test shots created by the U.S. government. The vaccine was developed by the National Institute of health and Moderna. Expect the market to have some huge volatility in the next 2-3 months as these huge studies begin to produce results.

It's encouarging to see such progress, yet these phase 3 studies will take months to achieve any meaningful results.

Source: CNBC

We will now have 2 half-positions to start our long term portfolio, and will look for some short term exposure over the next couple of weeks. Stay tuned for more updates each day this week with some videos for suubscribers in the works as well.

Best regards,

Tommy O'Brien