The Tiger Forex Report – Week of 11/11 – 11/15/2024

The DXY is remaining a Bull in the wake of the U.S. elections and FED rate cut. More USD strength is expected as we head into the middle of the 4th quarter.

Crude Oil Bears are all in with the Trump win. This market is in a sell rally forecast mode.

30yr T-Bond Yields continue to remain firm even though the FED has had two rate cuts. The market is dictating higher Yields. Like it or not.

EURUSD Weekly Outlook:

The Bears are ready to test support some more. With the DXY in rally mode, the EURUSD should remain under pressure. Rallies are most likely selling opportunities this week. Remember it is a holiday week. It is very likely to be choppy until Tuesday. If fresh selling can touch off new move lows the downside correction zone becomes a very reachable objective.

A profit taking rally is not out of the question, but there is no trend change expected. Fundamentals dictate a weaker EURO because of failing economies across the EU. Unless the ECB starts to raise rates it is most likely that this FX pair will remain a Slow grinding Bear.

GBPUSD Weekly Outlook:

The GBPUSD is stuck in a wide range trade. There is much indecission as to the fundamentals in the UK. Economic woes are holding this currency back, but not to the degree that the EURUSD is under pressure. More sideways trading around the downside correction zone is expected this week. If the market can get a close below this area there is a good chance that the market could press a fresh leg lower toward the downside target level.

Trading above the downside correction zone would be a good indication that the market is ready to push a rally toward the upper part of the recent range. Key off last week’s high. Trading above here would be a good sign that the Bulls are going to try and lift the GBPUSD back into the upside correction zone. Be careful if you catch a rally into this area. A spile high would not be out of the question before the Bears get control back to drag this FX pair down again.

USDCHF Weekly Outlook:

USDCHF Bulls are pressing this correction toward the upside target #1. This current move is attributed to USD strength. Unless there is a pull back in the DXY, this market is set to continue higher. Expect some swings as we press through resistance. The upside target #2 should be the extreme for any major trend move.

If Yields start to collapse and if the DXY pulls back there would be a strong case for the Bears to slam this market hard. The Bearish correction band is the first stop if the trend reverses gears. This area should hold firm if the USDCHF is going to regain the Bull trend. Trading below this area would indicate that the trend is back under the Bears control and the downside breakout level could be in jeopardy of failing. The downside target level is the longer-term Bear trend objective.

USDJPY Weekly Outlook:

The USDJPY continues to make higher move highs and higher move lows. The trend is your friend, but have rational expectations. Yields are going to get a pull back eventually, and that should weaken Bullish momentum. With Crude Oil drifting lower the Bears will be looking for selling opportunities. If the market gets above last week’s high this little engine that could will be looking to continue the trend toward the long-term trend target level.

Only a failure from the monthly directional pivot level would revers the outlook and confirm a sideways to lower trade. Sustained trading under this level would set the market up for a test of the downside correction zone. That should put a floor on a lower trading USDJPY. Only a big sell off in the DXY would change the Bearish forecast, and make the downside target level a very reachable target.

AUDUSD Weekly Outlook:

The AUDUSD has seen some explosive volatility. Use the monthly directional pivot level for the directional bias in the market. Trading above here keeps the market in a range trade up to the upside correction zone. If the market gets above here then the Bulls should make a run at the upside breakout level. This is a big level for the Bulls. A print above this level is likely to touch off fresh buying and drive this currency up toward the upside target level.

Below the monthly directional pivot level, the market will be on edge seeking lower move lows. The major trend support level is the area to aim for if you are going to ride a new leg Southbound. Not much more is on the agenda. The reality is that this FX pair has been in a wide range trade for quiet some time and is likely to continue to do so.

NZDUSD Weekly Outlook:

Use last week’s low as your directional bias this week. Trading above here puts a halt to the downtrend as the market digests recent Bearish action. It is a holiday market and there may not be much follow through for swing traders. If the Bears can get a dip below last weeks low then the downside target level should become a very reachable sell target.

All the way up to the critical correction band the NZDUSD will be in a fight as it tries to cut though resistance. If the Bulls can get above here the upside breakout level will be the true test if the trend is going to build momentum. A violation of the upside breakout level should spark fresh buying and drive the Bulls all the way back up to the upside target level.

USDCAD Weekly Outlook:

USDCAD traders are riding the USD Bull and are looking to make a play for the upside breakout level. If the market can get a close above this level there is a good chance that the market could hit 1.4050 before the week is through. 1.1220 is the longer-term upside target.

The recent Bull trend is very steep, and a profit taking move is expected. The downside correction zone is a viable area for a short-term pull back. Only a failure from the downside breakout level would confirm any strong trend shift. Trading below this area should put the downside target #1 level into traders’ crosshairs.