The Tiger Forex Report – Week of 01/05 – 01/09/2025

Happy New Year DXY fans. There is plenty to look forward to in 2026. Big swings in USDJPY, AUDUSD, EURUSD, & GBPUSD are expected in the big FX pairs.

Let’s get out Bear faces on everyone. Crude Oil is set to tumble in 2026, and this should have major positive impacts on many economic factors. Volatility is a no brainer call. Time to ring the cash register folks!

Long-term play in the 30yr T-Bond is Buy breaks and look forward to lower Yields in 2026. Short-term there may be a bit of pressure on Yields to spike higher before the next interest rate cut.

EURUSD Weekly Outlook:

Looking for a breakout to the upside to confirm the trend is going to remain intact for a while. It may be a rough range trade between the breakout levels to start the year off though. Key off the last swing high and low to pick a breakout play. Watch the DXY this week for directional bias. If the Index falls through support, then the EURUSD should catch a Bullish surge that could challenge the upside breakout level. This is a key area. If there is a close above here there should be enough momentum to catapult this currency up to the UTL #1. Long-term the UTL #2 is a viable objective to reach by mid-February. A failure to the downside breakout level gives the Bears a short-term opportunity to scare out weak Longs. DTL #1 is the extreme for any major profit taking correction.

GBPUSD Weekly Outlook:

GBPUSD Bulls are hovering below the last swing high and they want a shot at a higher move high to push the trend into new territory. UTL #1 is a very likely area for the market to reach before there is a pause in upside momentum. Pay attention to the DXY, if the index trends lower this week there should be every reason for this currency to blast through resistance. UTL #2 is the expected longer-term trend target for the Bulls as higher move highs and higher move lows continue into 2026. Only a failure from the last swing low would change the positive outlook to neutral as the Pound digests recent gains. An extreme slide would be a pull-back into the critical support zone. There is no reason under the sun to think that this FX pair can get below this area unless there is a major rally in the USD.

USDCHF Weekly Outlook:

The downside breakout level is in play this week and the call is for the Bears to take control of the USDCHF this week. It is a trend dynamic that is setting the tone for the Bears. Most likely there will not be a big selling spree, but there is a good chance of the market hitting the DTL #1 in the next couple of weeks. As far as the Bulls are concerned a big rally in the USD is needed to fuel any real strong corrective rally. Even if this occurs, it will be viewed as a correction. This currency is in a long-term Bear trend that is not going to change no matter how much USD strength there is. Unless the FED starts raising interest rates… that would change everything.

USDJPY Weekly Outlook:

Just a swingin’. The USDJPY is in play for 2026 with Crude Oil and Interest Rates setting the tone for volatility. Key off the last swing high and low. A rally into new move highs is a tough play, and there is more risk than reward on that play. Looking to sell rallies is the best approach if you want to play the odds. Crude Oil is a Bear, and Yields are set for lower as well. That equates to a lower trending market for the USDJPY as far as fundamentals go. A breach of the last high should put pressure on the UTL #1. Be careful at this level. It may be touch-and-go here. If there is a sustained trade above this level there could be more upside action, but it will most likely be a spike high move. Keep your Stops tight, or look for a rally to sell. Should the Bears get under the last swing low there is a good chance that downside momentum could build and set a new trend move in motion. DTL #1 is the first stop on a slide that could fall into the range trade zone by the end of January. This area has a gap that has not been filled.

AUDUSD Weekly Outlook:

Bullish momentum has the AUDUSD pointed in a higher direction for the start of the week ahead. It is a buy break forecast, and newer move highs are on the agenda. A rally above that last swing high is a good indication that the Bulls are on a mission to press the trend to the UTL #1. UTL #2 is the longer-term upside target that may get hit by early February. Only a failure from the downside breakout level would reverse the positive outlook and give the Bears a shot at making some money. DTL #1 is the level to aim for to the downside. If Yields spike higher and the USD catches a bid it would help to solidify a lower trending market into newer move lows. Not very likely…unless you close your eyes and drift into fantasyland. Just kidding. If there is a close below the downside level there will be an update.

NZDUSD Weekly Outlook:

Which way will this market go? The Bears are trying to make a lower move low and hit the DTL #1. However, USD weakness may give control of this currency to the Bulls. Key off last week’s low. Trading above here keeps this market in a sideways to higher posture set to make a run for higher move highs. If this occurs it is very likely that the NZDUSD will make it to the UTL #1 in the near future. UTL #2 is the extended trend target for the first quarter of 2026. Only a close below the DTL #1 would change the outlook to Bearish for a corrective slide toward DTL #2. Be cautious if you are a Bear looking for a slide into this region. USD weakness and lower Yields would make it very difficult for this FX pair to fall into this lower region.

USDCAD Weekly Outlook:

Can the USDCAD Bulls hold the corrective rally in place? Probably not. The call is for an early challenge of resistance, but look out for a spike high reversal. This currency is showing signs of getting a bit toppy. A sell signal is most likely brewing. Only a close above the downside support band would negate this outlook and set the market up for a choppy sideways trade flirting with resistance. If the market falls back into the downside support band there is a good chance that the Bears will extend the trend and press this market toward the DTL #1. DTL #2 is the longer-term first quarter trend objective for this currency.