The Tiger Forex Report 01-12-26
The Tiger Forex Report – Week of 01/12 – 01/16/2025
The DXY may be ready for a pause as Bullish momentum is expected to fizzle out this week.
Crude Oil Bulls are on the move. However, this is most likely just a profit taking rally before the next big slide in the market.
30yr T-Bond traders most likely will have to exercise patience as we approach the FED meeting.
EURUSD Weekly Outlook:
It has been a free-falling breaking market in the EURUSD for the last few weeks. The market is likely to find a floor this week in the downside support band. As we approach the FED meeting it is expected that Bullish strength will return to this FX pair. Expectations are for an Interest Rate cut which should weaken the USD. By default, there should be a surge in buying over the next couple of weeks making the upside resistance band a viable area to reach before the week is out. The upside target level could be the extreme for any big rally this week. Only a failure from the downside support band would confirm Bearish weakness and put the market on track to hit the downside target level.
GBPUSD Weekly Outlook:
GBPUSD Bears are flirting with support, but a bounce is on the agenda. There may be another lower move low into the downside support band. It is very likely that this will put a stop to lower trading. Especially with the FED rate cut expectations as high as they are. Do not be surprised if the trade dies as we head toward the FED meeting. Overall the outlook is Bullish, and the upside breakout level should get challenged before the month is through. The upside target level is a viable longer-term objective that could be hit as early as early February.
USDCHF Weekly Outlook:
It has been a very vertical trade the last couple of weeks in the USDCHF. A test of resistance is still likely, but the critical resistance level should help to put the breaks on the market. The current rally is viewed as a correction, and the return to Bearish action is likely to occur soon. If the FED does cut Interest Rates, then do not be surprised if the market falls through the downside support band and makes a beeline for the downside target level.
USDJPY Weekly Outlook:
Is there room for more Bullish action? Yes, but most likely not too much. It is likely that the upside target level is as far as the trend will push this rally. Crude Oil has had a Bullish surge, and it most likely has had an impact on the recent trend higher. This is viewed as a rally to Sell. Odds are very high that the USDJPY will be trading back in the downside support band soon. The downside target level fundamentally has the potential to be reached by early February. Watch Crude and Yields closely for signals of a turn for this FX pair.
AUDUSD Weekly Outlook:
AUDUSD traders have seen some good swings lately. Between the breakout levels it is likely to be a choppy range trade. Be careful. A breach of the last swing high should spark fresh buying and propel this currency to the upside target level. Should the Bears get the market to fall below the downside breakout level selling pressure should build. If this occurs, newer move lows should continue into the downside support band. This could be the floor for a lower trading market. Overall, the trend is a Bull in the longer-term outlook for now.
NZDUSD Weekly Outlook:
Head and Shoulders Sell pattern triggered on Friday in the NZDUSD. Lower trading is expected into the downside support band. This area may hold up for a bit as the market digests the recent trend lower. Be careful trying to fade this Bear. The market may slip all the way to the downside target level before there is a solid bounce and turn to the upside. Do not try and catch a falling knife here. Only a violation of the last swing high would take us off the Bearish outlook this week.
USDCAD Weekly Outlook:
Up, up, and away this market is going. Will it continue? Probably not. The upside resistance band is expected to hold this currency back from going higher. It has been a very steep correction, and a pause is overdue. If there is a close above the upside resistance band that would change the outlook back to Bullish. Trading at these higher levels would be a good indication that the trend is on a mission to hit the upside target level. If the market falls back below the long-term directional pivot level, then the downside support band should be reached in a short amount of time. Heavy selling pressure is expected under here.
