The Tiger Forex Report – Week of 02/16 – 02/20/2026

The USD is in a state of flux if you use the DXY as a gauge. It is a holiday market to start the week, and volume is expected to be light. Economic releases that could rock the USD are not out until the end of the week. Keep your expectations rational until after Tuesday.

Crude Oil is slinking along and is due for a Bearish slide. If there is a close below the major directional pivot level it would be a good indication that this commodity is set to fall back below $60 a barrel as we head into the end of the month.

30yr T-Bond Bulls are on the best ride North that there has been in months. This is amid Interest Rate cut expectations dissolving. Bull trap? We shall see. Fundamentals are ripe for a wide range trade until the end of the 1st Quarter. If this is correct…the FX pairs could be heading for a digestive phase.

EURUSD Weekly Outlook:

Watch out for this Forex pair this week. Germany is opening its economy to U.S. businesses. Since they chased the domestic companies away, it will be quite the hard sell. With a broken energy infrastructure, it is unlikely that manufacturing will be lured away from America. This does set a tone for the EUR though. Although in a Bullish mode, it will likely have sharp sell offs every time the USD gets a boost of strength. As it stands this currency is set to test support into the downside support band. If there is going to be a bounce for the Bulls, this will be it. Trading below this area would make the downside target level a very reachable trend objective. EURUSD Bulls must get a close above the upside resistance band if the longer-term trend is going to get back into Bullish mode. Otherwise, it is very probable that there is going to be a wide range trade for the next five to six weeks.

GBPUSD Weekly Outlook:

Is the gyrating volatility going to slow down this week in the GBPUSD? Could be. At least for the first couple of days. There are some economic numbers that impact European markets, but they should not cause too much of a stir. That is unless there is a major difference between expectations and the actual results. Most likely this will not be an issue until Wednesday or Thursday. Range trade conidtions are not out of the question so be cautious and wait for a valid trade opportunity with the potential to manifest a real move. The first couple of days for this week could be weak. If there is low volume in this trading area there is little chance for a breakout. If you are looking to play the odds it would be wise to wait for a buying opportunity in the downside support band. Trend dynamics are still in the Bulls favor so a Buy Break outlook is a solid play. Selling into this trend could be painful.

USDCHF Weekly Outlook:

This big Bear is pressing the trend, and it is very likely to keep doing so for many months to come. In the short-term the downside support level has held up well, and a Bullish correction is likely. A rally to challenge the upside resistance band is on the agenda. If there is sustained trading up at these levels the Bulls could make a run for the upside target level. This should put a ceiling on any upside surge unless there is a major explosion of strength in the USD. Be mindful of last week’s swing low. Should there be a failure here selling pressure could get fierce. Weak Stops could trigger strong momentum to the downside and make the downside target level an easy Bearish trend objective. There should be a bounce here.

USDJPY Weekly Outlook:

The Bears have hit the USDJPY very hard recently settling below the digestive zone. A rally back into and above this area is expected early this week. If this occurs it would be a good sign that the market is set to settle into range trade conditions. With U.S. Yields in limbo and Crude Oil holding firm the fundamentals are set for holding pattern conditions. Pick your points wisely and be carful if you are looking for big swing trades on a long-term basis. Only a failure from January’s swing low would confirm that the Bears are strong enough to press the trend lower. Should this happen, the downside target level is the first stop on a move that could hit the long-term downside target level before the 1st Quarter is finished.

AUDUSD Weekly Outlook:

Pressing resistance in a big way the AUDUSD Bulls are at the crossroads. The market is treading water in the upside resistance band. Look out if there is a rally that posts a close above the upside target level. A close in this higher region would be a positive sign that the Bulls will be on a mission to hit the 0.7425 level. If the week ahead is a pause for the cause situation, then it will most likely be a chop fest as the market calms down and ponders the next directional wave. Only a failure from the last swing low would turn this market into a Bear. If this occurs there will be an update.

NZDUSD Weekly Outlook:

Bullish momentum failed to make a higher move high last week in the NZDUSD. Use last week’s swing high as the bias for direction. Below here this currency is expected to be a rough choppy trade as it ponders direction. Trend momentum is still very Bullish, but there are signs of strength waning. Should the Bulls get back above last week’s high, then if would be very likely that momentum will start to build and add fuel to the rally. It would be a bad idea to try and fight newer move highs. There may be just a small poke to a higher move high, but there is also a good shot at a strong surge higher if USD strength falls apart. Watch the DXY. If there is weakness the Bulls could get a nice shot at pressing a big new high this week.

USDCAD Weekly Outlook:

This trend in the USDCAD really does not look like it wants to turn things around except for a correction. There is little in the forecast for the first few days this week. Most likely there will be range trade conditions until the end of the week. Keep your expectations rational. The best advise is to be careful of trying to catch a falling knife, and look for rallies to sell. A close above the upside resistance band is needed to confirm any change in trend dynamics, and newer lows may not have much to give those riding Short trades. Keep this in mind if you are trading this currency pair this week. If there is a valid trade setup there will be an update. Have a good trading week, and remember it is a holiday market. Take Monday off, and see what starts to develop on Tuesday. Happy Presidents Day!