The Tiger Forex Report – Week of 03/30 – 04/03/2026

The DXY is in World focus with all the global news. Be careful not to get caught in the Chicken Little panic and keep your wits about you. USD strength should wane fast as soon as tensions drop.

Crude Oil is pressuring the upside resistance and once again. Get ready for the big reversal to the downside. Bearish signs are growing on thin volume.

Not much has changed for the 30yr T-Bond market. Headlines are pushing Hawkish tones…As usual the best policy is to see what the FED does and not pay much attention to headlines. Sideways range trade conditions are the call as we head into the 2nd Quarter.

EURUSD Weekly Outlook:

Last week’s swing high fell just short of the upside breakout level. Although the Bears have had this market in a choke hold for a week the expectations are that a rally is likely. USD strength is all the headlines and that is the reason to look the other way. A rally up to challenge the upside breakout level is the call for the week. Bullish momentum is likely to build and blow out all the weak shorts. Is this a potential change in trend? Probably not. Most likely a wide range trade is going to really develop as we head toward Summer. Be careful fading the Bulls if the rally gets above the upside breakout level. There is every technical reason to support buying momentum and lift the Bulls into the upside resistance band. Keep your expectations rational as we get into the week ahead. It is a holiday market so volume could get thin after Wednesday afternoon. Should the Bears slap the EURUSD back to the floormat, then the downside support band should be put to the test. Do not discount Bearish resolve. Trading below the downside support band would be a very negative indication that the Bears are going to make a play for the downside target level in the short-term future.

GBPUSD Weekly Outlook:

Wham Batman! Economic numbers and inflation woes in the UK hit the GBPUSD hard last week coupled with USD strength. A pause for the cause is the call to digest the recent bodyslam. So far the downside suport band is holding solid. This is the line in the sand. Sustained trading in this area confirms the markets resolve to digest the recent decline. However, the Bulls are not expecte to capitalize too much from a bounce this week. So keep your upside expectations rational unless there is a real signal for USD weakness. At best, the Bulls may press a spike into the upside resistance band, but this should put a cap on any Bullish surge considering the shortened trading week. In the event that the Bears touch off new move lows in the downside support band, then there is a good chance that fresh selling pressure could build and make an effore to tag the downside target level. Keep your expectations realistic this week. If things start to fizzle into Wednesday there probably will not be very many solid opportunities to profit off. Remember trading is a business, and Risk Management is Job #1!

USDCHF Weekly Outlook:

If there is a FX pair that is putting the trend to the test it is the USDCHF. Overall, this market is in a long-tern Bear market. What started as a correction has become a strong extension into critical resistance territory (Bottom area of what Was key support). Use the upside resistance band for directional bias. Sustained trading above this area calls for a potential spike high up toward the upside target level. This should put a lid on any Bullish follow though for the short week. Below the upside resistance band, the Bears start to get the edge for a pull back into negative trend territory. Trend dynamics are weighted heavily to the downside. One thing to consider is that this currency has the potential to diverge away from other FX pairs versus the USD. If this bias remains there is every reason to be mindful that sell off situations have a higher profit potential than buying opportunities under the current market conditions. And this outlook is going to remain intact until further notice when it comes to the long-term forecast for the USDCHF.

USDJPY Weekly Outlook:

Talk about the world putting a currency under the microscope. The BOJ is making moves and has the world wondering how much more muscle they are willing to flex. Banking reserves are being used to short the Crude Oil Futures on a bet that pricing is going to go lower. Either this central bank is making a Godzilla size mistake, or they are “That” confident that tensions in the Middle East are not going to be an issue for much longer. With the USDJPY in the 160.00 territory Japan is not happy. One thing is for sure. There is likely to be some huge volatility in this market in the months to come. It would not be a surprise that swing traders are going to nominate the USDJPY for “Market Of The Year”. If USD strength remains the Bulls should make a play for the upside target level. Only a failure from the upside breakout level would reverse the Bullish outlook and set the market up for a corrective slide. This is a critical pivot area. Be careful selling under the current environment. There is little Bearish potential and the downside support band most likely will be the floor should the Bears get a new leg lower in motion.

AUDUSD Weekly Outlook:

A Head& Shoulders Sell signal was triggered last week when the Bears took out the neckline and did not look back. Momentum is with the Bears and a run for the downside target level is the call for the beginning of the week. This is a big area for the market. If there is going to be a pause or bounce, then this is most likely the area where it will occur. If you are going to take profits on a Short trade this could be a good area to start to lay off your position. However, do not try and catch a falling knife and look to buy around this level unless you have a solid signal. Downside momentum could build and drive the AUDUSD all the way to the downside target level #2 in just a few weeks. As far as a Bullish move this week there is little expected. Should the Bulls kickstart a rally the upside resistance band is expected to put a ceiling on any show of strength this week. Remember it is a holiday week, and trading volume is very likely to thin as we get into Wednesday afternoon.

NZDUSD Weekly Outlook:

NZDUSD Bears are pressing new move lows towards the downside support band. This area should provide a floor in the short-term as a digestive phase is the call. With the short week there is every reason to believe that even if there is not a corrective reversal there should be a sideways pause in momentum. The downside target level is likely to be the extreme if there is a violent push through support. If the Bears get the market back in this lower territory it will be of big interest to Bulls, Bears, short-term traders, and long-term traders alike. Then throw in the Algos’ and you have a situation ripe for a chop fest. You have been warned. This a short week and since this is one of the minor major pairs there may be swings, but the volume will most likely be weak. Not to mention the spreads could get dicey as well. Save yourself some money and make sure you have a valid signal before getting too involved. It is also quarter end and there are always quirky moves. Do not get caught up in the hype.

USDCAD Weekly Outlook:

USDCAD Bulls crossed the long-term directional pivot level and are not showing signs of giving up any ground soon. If the USD strength is in motion, there is every reason for the higher move high agenda to continue. Watch the DXY for USD bias. If the Index is pressing resistance, then this FX pair should continue the trek higher. A challenge of the upside resistance band is likely, but that is about all that should occur to the upside this week. With quarter end and a holiday week there are only a few days to really capitalize off before the markets fall into a lull. Only a close below the long-term directional pivot level would negate the strong Bullish outlook and put the USDCAD into digestion mode for a long overdue correction. Should the USD suffers a big blow, this currency pair might retrace back into the downside support band. That should be the floor for a Bearish reversal and may also give Bulls a great lowball buying opportunity. Have a safe and Happy Easter! See you next week.