The Tiger Forex Report – Week of 04/27/26 – 05/01/2026

DXY Bears are expected to put pressure on the USD early in the week as we head into the FED meeting. This is the last meeting with Powell, and it is anyone’s guess what will happen. If there is a rate hike it would be par for the course for this chairman.

Crude Oil is likely to be a boring trade this week as negotiations continue. Still Bearish.

The 30yr T-Bond is most likely going to be a tough sideways trade this week until the FED meeting ends on Wednesday. It has been a range trade in the midst of all of the turmoil in the Middle East, and it should stay sideways until the decision on Wednesday. Get ready for swings afterward.

EURUSD Weekly Outlook:

The EURUSD bounced off the downside support band last week, and the last swing low is now the base for directional bias. Trading above here keeps the Bulls on a short-term push to challenge the upside breakout level. In the event that there is a close above here that would be a positive indication that the Bulls are going to try and challenge the upside target level. Not much is likely above here until after the FED meeting ends on Wednesday. If there is no move in Interest Rates, then it is likely that this currency will catch a Bid and launch a new move to higher move highs. Should there be a rambunctious rally the critical resistance band is very likely to put a cap on fresh buying momentum. Only a failure from last week’s swing low with a close below it as well would confirm the markets resolve to surrender to the Bears and break through the recent floor. Sustained trading below the downside support band would be a good indication that the Bears are looking to press the trend all the way toward the downside target level.

GBPUSD Weekly Outlook:

This week the GBPUSD Bulls are expected to make a run at new move highs. First, on the agenda is the critical swing high. If there is a violation here the Bulls should hit the upside target level. Now here is the key. There needs to be two consecutive closes above the upside target level to confirm extended strength early in the week. It is a FED week. Do not get caught in a liquidity trap headfake rally! Seriously be mindful of the fact that until after Wednesday this market could pressure new move highs, but the likelyhood of sustaining the move is not very likely. If anything, the odds are very favorable for a spike high rally that pulls back into a break that could dip into the the downside support band before Wednesday is through. Most likely there will not be any sustained trading below here until after the FED makes a decision. In the event that there is an Interest Rate hike, then the Bears could really rip the rug out and pressure support on a new trend surge lower making the downside target level a very viable objective. Would that not be crazy if Powell touched off a move like that? We shall see. Could be a nonevent.

USDCHF Weekly Outlook:

Well, this market is a mixed bag of bad candy after trick-or-treating on Halloween. Are the Bulls going to keep the move going? Is the recent rally just a corrective profit taking bounce? Overall, this market is a Bear. However, do not expect a big selloff in the short-term future at least until after Wednesday and the FED meeting is completed. If there is not an Interest Rate cut, or if there is a Rate cut, then there is a good chance at a new run at newer move lows in a big way. Trend dynamics and fundamentals could really gain steam in such a situation. So far momentum is with the Bulls since they planted the short-term sing low last week. There is very little expectation for any Bullish follow through this week at least until after the FED meeting is over. In the rare chance that the Bulls can sustain control and keep rallying through resistance, then the Bulls are likely to find a short-term ceiling in the upside resistance band. Only an Interest Rate hike by the FED would change this outlook to extremely Bullish in the short-term future. Time will tell.

USDJPY Weekly Outlook:

Talk about a boring FX pair. The USDJPY is locked in a range trade and is expected to be stuck between the breakout levels for most of the week. There are absolutely no signals, no fundamentals to drive this market out of a range trade, it is a FED week, and Crude Oil is sideways as well. What does this spell? Going nowhere. Wait for a valid signal. If there is a significant move to the upside before Wednesday there will be an update. Otherwise, the best advice for trading this currency is to stay out, or work your position. Bulls are most likely the ones that have the least potential for a large move. It is the Bears that have plenty of variables that if they take control of the market will most likely take a nose dive through support like a rock trying to float on water. An update will be provided if there is a major Bullish or Bearish move that warrants a review of trading potential.

AUDUSD Weekly Outlook:

The AUDUSD Bulls were put to a halt last week, and a dull trade is on the agenda for the week ahead at least until after the FED meeting. Even if there is a rally to newer move highs the expectation is that the market will snap back fast. Odds are high that this FX pair will be stuck in a choppy range trade. Be mindful of this. It is very common for this currency to react in this manor under the circumstances. If the Bears can touch off Stops from weak Longs and set a newer move low, then there is a good chance that the market may make a play for the downside support band. There is most likely going to be a bounce in this area if there is a sudden turn of events to hit support hard. Best advice this week is to only take strong trading signals, or just stay out until after the FED meeting is over for a few hours and the market has had a chance to process what it would like to do.

NZDUSD Weekly Outlook:

Get ready for a sleepy trade in the NZDUSD this week. There is little on the menu until after the FED meeting is over. The best suggestion is to either manage any current position, exit any position, or wait for a very strong trading signal before entering a new trade in this currency. Short-term this market is a Bull, but longer-term it is a Bear. It is a foggy FX pair to breakdown, and until there is a valid signal with merit, the call is to step back and wait. Not making money is better than losing money because of a lack of discipline. You have been warned. Should there be a solid trading signal forming an update will be provided.

USDCAD Weekly Outlook:

Last week this market found a floor for a bit. Could it get tested this week? Most likely not until after Wednesday in the very least. A digestive range trade is expected and should develop until after the FED wraps up the two-day meeting on Wednesday. After this it is a whole new ballgame ladies and gentleman. If there are two closes below the downside target level then the Bears could really start to make headlines as they tear through support and take new multi-week and multi-month levels way lower. There will be an update if this occurs. As far as the Bulls are concerned, the upside resistance band is expected to put a ceiling on a higher trade. Remember that the USDCAD has been in a wide range trade now since last year so keep your expectations for any swing move rational. Weigh your risk and reward projections well. Next week it will be all over. Powell will be on his way out, and odds are strong that there will be a neutral to Dovish tone by the FED. We shall see. Good luck this week, and stay disciplined.