The Tiger Forex Report – Week of 09/14 – 09/18/2026

DXY watchers are most likely set for a range trade as we head into Wednesday’s FED release. Until Thursday the Index may not be a very good gauge for USD strength or direction.

A higher move high and a lower close in Crude Oil on Friday sets this market up for a profit taking break in the short-term. TP3 was hit without a close above that level. Very telling for Bears.

30yr T-Bond Yields are pressing highs in front of the FED meeting. A bounce is expected, and a strong pull-back in Yields is likely.

EURUSD Weekly Outlook:

Indicators are Bullish in the EURUSD, but there are some signs of a short-term correction. It is a FED week and there may be very thin trading and many false moves until after Wednesday. There is a Sell signal, but under the circumstances it is best to only follow the Bearish signal if the last swing low is taken out. A failure from here targets TP1 which follows the narrative of higher Interest Rates, but that is about all that should unfold until there is confirmation of any FED action. Remember, there may not be a rate hike. As can be seen in the behavior of many major FX pairs the conditions are ripe for sideways. Stay disciplined and work your positions with rational expectations. If there is a rally above last week’s swing high there is a good chance the Bulls can get a nice leg higher in motion. The critical resistance level should put a ceiling on any Bullish move…Unless the FED throws a curveball and cuts Interest Rates. What a rally that could touch off. Most likely there will not be a move by the FED this week, and then we can get back to normal chaos on Thursday. There are big changes in Germany in motion that could really send shockwaves into this currency soon. Stay tuned.

GBPUSD Weekly Outlook:

Can the GBPUSD Bears make this Sell signal pay off? Directional bias is leaning toward another deep dive through support making TP1 a very viable objective this week. That is about all that should unfold to the downside until after the FED meeting. Unless there is a big blow to USD strength there is little reason to believe that this currency will hammer support too hard in the short-term. Watch out for a rally above last week’s swing high. A violation here would be a positive indication that the market is going to accelerate to the upside. Be very careful fighting newer move highs in this FX pair. Trading at these higher levels would be a strong sign that long-term trend dynamics are getting Bullish. This would be very good intel as we wrap up the 3rd Quarter and head into the last leg of the year. Yes, folks before we know it, we will be talking about taking off for Thanksgiving. One key note. A close above last week’s swing high should not be underestimated. We shall see how the week pans out.

USDCHF Weekly Outlook:

Friday the Bulls got a close above TP1. That sets a positive tone for the Bulls to continue higher on a trek toward TP2. This is about all that the Bulls should muster up in front of the FED meeting. We shall see if there is a move or not. Odds are strong there will be no action. If this occurs there is a good chance that the Bulls could get another boost in strength and continue to press newer move highs toward TP3 as wee digest the September FED release. As long as the market is trading above last week’s swing low the USDCHF should remain in a neutral to higher posture. Only a failure from this level would negate the positive stance and set this currency up to put our Long signal in jeopardy by pulling back to our protective Stop level. If there is a break below here things could get ugly. Volatility is expected to get unruly all the way back to the downside support band. Most likely this area will hold as a floor for the Bears and give the Bulls a good spot to regain some footing.

USDJPY Weekly Outlook:

There is a bunch of sideways action around TP1 just above the recent swing low. Current pricing has the USDJPY just a few handles above the 150.00 BOJ target level. Odds are strong that the Bears will get another shot at newer move lows this week. TP2 is the first stop on a follow through break that could hit TP3 in a heartbeat. Expect some big bounces, but keeping a sell rally posture should help to keep the odds on your side over the next few days. Here is something for you YEN traders to think about… The BOJ, Japanese government, Japanese finance minister, the FED and the U.S. Treasury Department just worked together to prop up the YEN vs. the USD. With that is mind the FED will not touch Interest Rates because it would be counter intuitive to what they just did. Also, then it would be ripe for critics to say that the FED is front running the Treasury Department before their Buy Back Bond initiative begins. Ponder that during the sideways range trade on Tuesday into Wednesday afternoon.

AUDUSD Weekly Outlook:

AUDUSD Bulls fell just short of TP3. Odds are strong that a short-term high is in place and a corrective break is developing. Be careful under these new highs. With the FED meeting odds are high that the market will fall into a range trade fast this week. If you are a Bear last week’s swing high is the key level. A rally above here would confirm fresh buying pressure and a potential rally to new multi month highs. As things stand there is a stronger likelihood that the Bears area going to test support. It has been a solid trend higher over that last few months and a correction would be healthy. The downside support band should hold up as a solid area for this currency to bounce off. Make sure to keep your expectations rational until after Wednesday’s FED meeting. The best trading opportunities should be Monday and Thursday into Friday. Do yourself a favor and keep this in mind so you do not get chopped up chasing moves that will not manifest. Stay disciplined and conserver your trading capital.

NZDUSD Weekly Outlook:

NZDUSD Bears are putting the downside support band to the test this week. This is a big area that will either prop up the market, or be the half way point on a major trend move lower. TP2 will be the big test. Trading back in this area is critical for trend dynamics. Below here TP3 becomes an extremely viable objective before there is a bounce or consolidation phase. FED meeting or no FED meeting this is the FX pair that could have the most trading opportunities all through the week. Sustained trading above the downside support band would be a good indication that the market is not going to swing around like normal, and instead it could be falling into a pre-FED meeting lull. That is all that is likely for a higher trade this week. If there is a significant move with a strong reversal signal there will be an update.

USDCAD Weekly Outlook:

More of the same is on the menu for the USDCAD this week. If there is one major FX pair that will most likely disappoint this week it is this currency. So, what to do? Stay disciplined and wait for a valid signal. Is there likely to be a breakout? Yes, but not until after the FED meeting, and make sure to avoid any potential liquidity traps. Underestimating market conditions is always foolish, and especially in this environment. The best advice is to watch the DXY. If the Index sparks a major move in a direction that is supported by a valid signal, then that would be the situation that will put the most odds in your favor toward success. Good luck this week everyone. FED weeks are always tough, but only if you fight it. Remember to be patient and let the market come to you. Have a prosperous week. See you next Monday.