The Tiger Forex Report – Week of 01/13 – 01/17/2025

The DXY Bulls are pushing the upper extreme and should continue to press the trend.

Crude Oil Bulls are breaking out to the upside and are expected to continue trending higher until the inauguration next week. More inflation to start the year off with.

30yr T-Bond Yields continue to rise. The reality is that the world is selling our Bonds, and nobody wants to buy them. More sellers than buyers equals lower prices and higher Yields. Regardless of FED rate cuts.

EURUSD Weekly Outlook:

Look out below. The EURUSD is a raging Bear. With Yields going up and the DXY in rally mode the Bears should keep pressing the trend. 1.0164 is the first stop on a slide that could flirt with parity sooner than later. That is right. Our prediction of the market touching parity this year is becoming a very plausible reality. Fundamentals for this market also reinforce this outlook. Only a rally above the upside breakout level would reverse the outlook. If there is a reversal of the trend it should be viewed as a corrective rally to sell into.

GBPUSD Weekly Outlook:

The critical downside correction area is already in play to start the week off. This is a big support area. Trading below here would be a negative indication that the Bears are in full control and will be on a mission to press this trend lower in a big way. 1.1875 and 1.1790 are the extended sell off targets. Fundamentals are abismal for the Pound, and with Yields rallying the trend should remain a Bear. A rally above the previous downside breakout level is needed to reverse this outlook, and this week it is unlikely that the Bulls will get above this area. If there is a close above here there will be an update.

USDCHF Weekly Outlook:

This is one currency pair that may become a reluctant Bull soon. Fundamentals remain Bullish, but the long-term trend for the USDCHF is a Bear. If the other major currency crosses continue to fall to the USD this market may not follow. Keep your Stops tight if you are a Bull. The upside target level is the objective for the current trend, but this area should put a lid on the Bull trend. And be mindful of Yields. Should they pull back sharply this market is most likely going to fall back on support hard and fast. A failure from the downside breakout level would be a good indication that the Bears will be set on pulling back to the Bearish correction band before there is a bounce.

USDJPY Weekly Outlook:

The USDJPY is winding its coil and is set to spring. Even with rising Yields and Crude Oil prices this currency is in a range trade. Use the critical resistance band for directional bias. A close above this area confirms strength for a fresh leg higher that will have the market eyeballing the extended upside target level. Do not get caught off guard. If the USD really gains momentum this week, then this currency should finally get back on the rally train. Below the critical resistance band it will be most likely a very tight range trade.

AUDUSD Weekly Outlook:

The Aussie is in full blown Bear mode and should remain so. Until there is a turn in the USD it is unlikely that the Bulls will be able to sustain a rally. As long as the trend remains strong the market should continue its trek toward the long-term Bearish target. Although a corrective bounce is overdue, it most likely will not manifest for another week or so. Watch the DXY for directional bias. As long as the Bulls keep lifting the Index the AUDUSD should remain in the gutter. Only a close above the upside breakout level would reverse this outlook, and an update will be given should this occur.

NZDUSD Weekly Outlook:

At the moment there is no sign that the NZDUSD will be able to overtake the power of gravity. More downside action is on the agenda. The downside target level is where the Bears are looking to reach this week, and most likely it will be achieved by midweek. This market is in sell rally mode in a big way, and the only way to change this outlook would be to get a close above the upside correction band. Watch the DXY. If there is a reversal in the Index then this currency pair might be able to sustain a short-term corrective rally. There will be an update if there are signs of the market reversing this week.

USDCAD Weekly Outlook:

Annexing Canada aside, the USDCAD has other things driving the trend. Watch the DXY. As long as the Index remains firm there is a strong chance that the Bulls will press newer move highs to the upside breakout level. It is very likely to get choppy in this area. The critical trend resistance area is most likely going to be the ceiling for a higher trade. Even though the trend is solid it is time for a short-term correction. Be mindful of the DXY. A sharp turn in the Index should pull the market back to the downside correction band. But that is about all that is likely for a turn back to support. Until Canada gets its politics and economy on track there is likely to be very little lower trending action for this market.