The Tiger Forex Report 1-16-24
The Tiger Forex Report – Week of 1/15 – 1/19/2024
The DXY has hit flatline. In between the upside breakout level and the long-term directional pivot level the index will be in limbo. Rough trading waters ahead are expected.
Crude Oil has fallen into a narrowing trade to start the year off. Wait for a signal. More sideways trading is very likely this week.
30yr T-Bonds and the rest of the treasury market are all drifting. Get used to it. There is not expected to be any major trend move for a while. Unless the economic data goes South.
EURUSD Weekly Outlook:
EURUSD direction has been stymied. Between the downside breakout level and the critical resistance band the market will continue to disappoint. If the Bulls can get above 1.1040 that could fuel an extended rally to challenge the upside breakout level. As Yields soften the probability of breaching these higher levels becomes more likely. Trading above 1.1139 targets 1.1236. 1.1295 and 1.1350 are the extended long-term Bullish targets.
If the Bears can get a peak under the downside breakout level the daily directional pivot level will be in play. A failure here should slam newer move lows into the critical support zone. This is all that is likely for a lower trading EURUSD. With the FED looking to pause or become Dovish it will be a very big task for the Bears to get below the 1.0713 level. Only a strong Dovish move by the ECB would change this forecast, and then lower the longer-term multi-month Bearish trend target.
GBPUSD Weekly Outlook:
Between the breakout levels the market remains in a swing trader’s nightmare. Wait for a move. A rally above the upside breakout level would be a good sign that the GBPUSD would like to press multi-month highs. 1.2969 is the first stop on a longer-term move that has the potential to reach 1.3114 before there is a turn. If the USD gets hit, then this scenario becomes very viable.
The downside breakout level is just above the daily directional pivot level. This is a key area for the GBPUSD Bears to get below. Trading under here would be a good sign that selling momentum is getting ready to build. Most likely this currency will find a floor by the critical support band. With Yields in retreat, it will be very tough to get a bigger drop than this. Only a big rally in Yields would justify any extended sell off below the 1.2338 area.
USDCHF Weekly Outlook:
This long-term Bear is starting to show signs of digestion. Not what USDCHF traders want to hear, but it is what it is. Unless there are some fundamental shakeups from the economic numbers this week it may be a sideways trade. If the Bulls can breach the directional pivot level a Bullish correction may unfold. Watch Yields too. If they firm up in a big way it could ignite fresh buying pressure. A rally above 0.8666 would confirm that this currency is trying to press a rally up into the upside correction zone.
USDCHF traders will have a tuff go of it until they can slip below the downside breakout level. Trading under here is necessary to confirm extended weakness and targets the 0.8193 support level. This is a good area for the market to consolidate after pressing new monthly lows. Unless Yields really pull back sharply it will be very unlikely that this FX pair will get below here. 0.8080 is the longer-term sell off objective.
USDJPY Weekly Outlook:
Get ready for a possible dead trade this week. There are economic numbers for the USD and the JPY, but if they come out in line there may be very little market movement. Use the directional pivot level for the USDJPY directional bias this week. Above here the Bulls will fight to press newer move highs up into the upside correction zone. 147.51 is most likely going to be the extreme unless there is some very Bullish news for the USD. The only likely thing to lift the market higher would be if Yields firm back up sharply this week. And they are in a sideways trade right now.
If the market can sustain a trade below 145.09 the Bears could end this corrective move higher and start to hammer support. The 140.77 level is the key target for the USDJPY to reach. Trading back here is a good indication that the market has established the higher end of its trading range for this currency. Remember the long-term Bull trend is starting to show signs of turning. Watch Yields to see if they soften more this week. Should that occur, the Bears could use that to their advantage to hit support. A sell rally forecast may be the call for a few weeks to come.
AUDUSD Weekly Outlook:
AUDUSD traders are poised for yet another range trade week. There are some economic numbers that may cause a stir, but no serious volatility on the table. The downside correction zone seems to embody most of the range trade for this currency. Above the downside breakout level more of the same is likely this week. Only a big sell off in the USD would change the outlook from neutral to Bullish. In this case the Bulls may start to edge there way up towards the upside target #1. Upside target #2 should put a cap on any exuberant surge higher.
If the Bears can slip below the downside breakout level weak Longs should give way to fresh selling pressure. The critical correction support band should be all that a new leg lower should produce if it is going to just be a correction. There is little to suggest that the USD is going to regain any major strength, but should it occur, the Bulls could press newer lows below the 0.6496 level.
NZDUSD Weekly Outlook:
Winding its coil and set to spring, and maybe this week the NZDUSD will make a move. Wait for a breakout or valid signal. Only a failure from the downside breakout level confirms that the Bears are in control. Trading under here is a good sign that fresh selling pressure is entering the market. This would put the downside correction zone into a viable landing area for a correction. Watch the USD. If the DXY gets a boost this week, then this currency could spark new move lows in a big way.
If the market holds above 0.6181 it will be a very rough trade. However, if the USD start to fall under the gun, then this market could catch a bid. The upside target level is the objective if the longer-term trend regains strength. Until there is a big pull back in Yields it will be very hard to get above this area. Once there is a close above 0.6399 the longer-term outlook for this market may begin to change. Until the FED starts to cut rates though it will most likely be very limited to the upside for the Bulls.
USDCAD Weekly Outlook:
Momentum remains in the Bulls favor though ever so slight. It is likely that the USDCAD will press newer move highs this week, but be rational in your upside expectations. If the USD gets a big boost there is a good chance that this FX pair will make a run for the 1.3537 level. Resistance is likely to be very strong here. Trading above this area would be a good indication that the currency will try to edge all the way up towards the 1.3624 extreme for the upside correction zone.
Only a failure from the downside breakout level takes us off the positive outlook. If the Bears get the market below this area, it is a negative sign that newer move lows may be in the future. The downside target #1 is the first new move low objective. Be careful trying to buy into the USDCAD if it reaches these levels. It is not out of the question that newer lows could hit 1.3055 be fore there is a bounce. 1.2792 is the longer-term downside sell off target.