The Tiger Forex Report – Week of 1/02 – 1/05/2024

The DXY fell on strong support last week. The holidays are over. Bring on 2024. Below the upside breakout level, it is likely to be a tough choppy trade.

Crude Oil Bears gave us a nice gift to end the year. Expect a tough trade in the $70-$75 range. A 2024 sleeping Bull is likely to spark a rally soon.

30yr T-Bond Bulls are pressing strong resistance as the market factors in a FED rate cut. The market may be a bit ahead of itself. A corrective slide is very likely before the FED confirms a dovish posture.

EURUSD Weekly Outlook:

EURUSD Bulls pressed higher highs to end 2023. Key of the upside breakout level for directional bias this week. Watch the DXY and Yields closely in the days ahead. If they are getting hit it is likely that the Bulls will drive this currency to higher move highs. 1.1236 is the upside target level #1. This Bullish trend is a very steep slope, but there is enough momentum to keep it going. 1.1295 and 1.1350 are the longer-term upside targets.

If there is a reversal in the USD, then the Bears may be able to keep the EURUSD pointed lower. A pull back to the downside correction zone would be a perfect area for the market to fall back on. With the FED starting to look neutral it will be very hard for the Bears to get below this area. However, if the market can fall below the daily directional pivot level it would be a good indication that the longer-term trend is starting to reverse gears. The critical support zone would become a viable trend objective if this should occur.

GBPUSD Weekly Outlook:

GBPUSD traders had a tough week to end the year. Newer move highs failed fast, but another run at the upside breakout level is expected. Use caution fighting the Bulls. Trading above 1.2793 has the potential to reach the 1.2969 level before there is a turn in the market. If the USD takes another hit it should help to lift this currency up near these levels. 1.3145 is the longer-term rally target.

If the Pound sustains a trade under the upside breakout level, then there is a chance the Bears could drag this market back into the downside correction zone. It is not expected for this FX pair to fall below this area. Only a failure from the daily directional pivot level would confirm any extended change in trend. This would in turn extend the Bearish objective to the critical support band.

USDCHF Weekly Outlook:

USDCHF Bears ended the year with newer move lows. More Bearish action is likely to continue. The extended downside target level has now become a key resistance level. If the Bulls can breach this area there is a chance that the Bulls could make it up to the directional pivot level. This is the key area holding the trend intact. A violation of 0.8666 should not be taken lightly. Trading above this area is a good sign that the Bulls are on a mission for the upside correction zone.

Below the 0.8528 level the Swissie will be in a range trade back to the downside target #2. If the market is going to digest recent action this should hold the currency up. The slope for the recent slide is very steep, and it is likely to have a nice profit taking bounce. Be careful with your Short positions. Under 0.8373 the Bears are likely to pick up steam and drive the USDCHF all the way down towards the 0.8193 level.

USDJPY Weekly Outlook:

Newer move lows after a lower move high keeps this market in a steep sloping Bear trend. Another test of the 140.77 level is on the menu for early this week. If the USDJPY can hold below here there is a good chance that he Bears could press new multi-month lows. The 137.68-136.49 critical support band is the longer-term sell off target.

Above 140.77 it will be a tough trade all the way up to the directional pivot level. A correction is over due for this market, but with Yields dropping it will be unlikely to sustain any strong rally. If the Bulls can get above 145.09 the Bulls are likely to press all the way up into the upside correction zone. This is all that is likely out of a higher trading USDJPY. 150.00 is the longer-term upside objective. With the BOJ likely to act soon it is unlikely that this FX pair will get above this area. Unless there is a big show of USD strength.

AUDUSD Weekly Outlook:

There is no sell signal and the USD remains weak. This keeps the AUDUSD poised for another rally above the upside target #1 level. It would not be a good idea to fight the Bulls on this one. Upside momentum has the potential to reach the 0.6905 level before there is a pause. 0.6954 is the longer-term Bullish target.

Sustained trading below 0.6853 puts the market in limbo for a bit. A profit taking break would be good after the steep runup the past few weeks. Watch Yields. If they start to rise again the AUDUSD could press support again. The downside correction zone is all that is expected out of a profit taking pull back. Only a strong turn in the USD would change this outlook.

NZDUSD Weekly Outlook:

The trend remains intact in this FX pair as newer move highs spike around the upside target level #1. Be careful fighting this move. With the USD is in the gutter the NZDUSD is likely to reach the upside target level #2 before there is a pause. 0.6447 is the longer-term Bullish objective.

Below the 0.6324 level the market will be in a digestive trade. If the USD regains some strength there is a good chance that this currency pair could have a nice correction. The slope of the rally in place is steep, and the Bears are lurking in the shadows. If the Bears can take the NZDUSD below the upward sloping channel line there may be a sizable sell off. All the way to the downside breakout level it is likely to be a choppy trade. If the market slips below 0.6084, then there is a good chance the Bears will drive this currency all the way into the downside correction zone.

USDCAD Weekly Outlook:

Will 2024 keep the Bear trend together in the USDCAD? With the DXY under pressure a long-term bounce is not likely. The market is treading just above the rising long-term monthly trend support line. Key off this for directional bias this week. Trading above here will have the Bulls fighting for a profit taking move all the way up to the directional pivot level. This is a key resistance level. A violation here would be a positive indication that the Bulls are going to make a run for the upside correction zone.

Below the long-term monthly trend support line, the market will remain in an aggressive Bear posture aimed at the downside target #1. The holiday markets are over and it is on with 2024. If the USD falls under more pressure, it would be likely that new lows could reach the 1.3055 level before there is any relief. 1.2792 is the extended sell off objective if the Bears really hammer the trend. Watch Yields as well. If they continue the retreat, it would very likely reinforce the USDCAD Bears.