The Tiger Forex Report 1-22-24
The Tiger Forex Report – Week of 1/22 – 1/26/2024
The DXY remains firm and is very likely to make a run for the critical resistance band.
Crude Oil continues to disappoint and remains in a range trade between the $70 and $75 a barrel price level.
30yr T-Bond Futures remain on edge as economic numbers continue to push out potential Dovishness by the FED. The correction remains in play until there is a sign of a reversal.
EURUSD Weekly Outlook:
The Bears are in control of the EURUSD as this market hovers above the recent swing low. A test of the daily directional pivot level is on the menu this week. If there is trading below here, then the new leg lower should stretch into the critical support band. This is all that is likely out of an extended slide, and a consolidation phase is very likely to develop. If Yields do press on higher in a big way, then the forecast would change to a longer-term Bear. A close below 1.0713 is needed before further downside targets will be looked at.
Sustained trading above 1.0834 keeps this currency in a holding pattern up to the critical resistance band. Be careful if the Bulls can muster up a rally into this area. A breach of 1.1022 would be a positive indication that the Bulls are back for the longer-term trend. New monthly highs would be very likely. The upside target #1 would be the first level to shoot for if Bullish momentum returns. Espectially if Yields start to pull back sharply. That would reinforce bullish fundamentals in a big way.
GBPUSD Weekly Outlook:
Last week a Head & Shoulders pattern had been triggered and the Bears are likely to take control right off the bat this week. Watch the daily directional pivot level. A failure here should trigger fresh selling pressure and help press newer move lows into the week. This makes the downside target band a viable sell off objective. With yields looking to slow down in volatility there is no reason that this FX pair could not generate a nice correction before returning to the longer-term Bull trend.
The Bulls need to get a rally above the second (S) Shoulder to reverse the short-term Sell signal. A violation here would be a good sign that the Bulls will be on a mission for higher move highs up to the upside target #1. This most likely will be it for a rally. However, if the Bulls can sustain a trade above the 1.2865 level new move highs will be targeting the 1.2969 extended Bullish objective. If Yields ease in a big way, then 1.3114 becomes a very viable long-term trend target.
USDCHF Weekly Outlook:
USDCHF Bulls are right on the directional pivot level. Sustained trading above here keeps the market firm for newer move highs. The upside correction zone is about all that the market should pull out of higher move highs. It has been a vertical trade for the past week, and it would be very likely that the Bulls are going to slow their pace higher. However, if there is a big jump in Yields the Bulls will have the extended upside target level in their sights.
If the Bears can hold a trade below 0.8666 the downside correction zone should pull the market back like a magnet. A choppy trade is expected to develop in this area so be ready for a potential consolidation phase. Only a failure from 0.8477 confirms longer-term weakness. 0.8193 and 0.8080 are the extended new month low targets.
USDJPY Weekly Outlook:
Wow! The Bulls really gave the market a lift last week. The slope is steep, and momentum remains to the upside. An early challenge of resistance is expected up to the upside correction zone. This would put the market back near the key 150.00 level. Be careful in this area. Only a strong rally in Yields would support such a big move through resistance. Remember the BOJ is also likely to intervene if the USDJPY gets above this area.
Below last week’s swing high the market will be in a choppy trade all the way down to the 145.09 level. This is a very key area. A failure from here will have the market leaning on the downside correction zone quickly. There is unlikely to be any sustained move below this area. There are poor economic factors impacting the value of the YEN. Only a close below 143.54 would confirm the Bears intentions to hammer the USDCHF. 140.77 is the long-term Bearish trend objective.
AUDUSD Weekly Outlook:
Nice bounce in the AUDUSD last week. Key off the swing low from Wednesday. Trading above here will have the Bulls fighting to get back up into the critical resistance band. Be cautious if the market gets back into this area. If the market is going to regain the longer-term Bull trend there need to be a close above the 0.6739 level. Watch Yields. If they soften the Bulls could drive this currency towards the upside target #1. 0.6905 is the long-term trend target.
A failure from last weeks low could be a tease. Get ready for a head fake move if the market falls below the 0.6496 level. Never try and call a bottom, but this market is exhibiting all the symptoms of a sleeping Bull. If there are two consecutive closes below 0.6496 new downside targets will be generated as market conditions will be reevaluated.
NZDUSD Weekly Outlook:
The NZDUSD fell short of the downside correction zone, and another test of support is on the docket for this week. It may be time to digest recent Bearish action, and it is not expected to fall under the 0.6000 level. If there is a close under 0.6000 an update will be given after market conditions are analyzed.
Trading above 0.6072 will have the NZDUSD in a tough trade back up to the critical resistance band. If the market gets back into this area be ready for more consolidation to occur. Only a rally above 0.6264 would confirm the Bulls intentions to climb higher in a big way. The upside target level would become a very viable rally objective as the Bulls search for newer swing highs. 0.6510 is the long-term bullish trend target.
USDCAD Weekly Outlook:
The USDCAD Bulls touched the upside correction zone last week. If the recent rally is just a correction it is unlikely that the market will get back into this area anytime soon. A violation of 1.3537 should give the Bulls a shot at pressing the 1.3624 level. Only a big rally in Yields would justify any extended rally above the 1.3624 area.
Below last weeks swing high the USDCAD will be poised for a break into the critical support band. This is a key area to help confirm the longer-term trend. A failure from the 1.3313 level would be a negative sign that the Bears are going to continue the long-term Bear trend. The downside target #1 would then become the new Bearish trend objective. 1.3055 and 1.2792 are the monthly bear trend levels to keep in mind if weakness accelerated in this FX cross.