The Tiger Forex Report – Week of 10/16 – 10/20/2023

The DXY set a key swing low. If Yields rally, then more Bullish action is expected.

Crude Oil Bulls are ready to challenge the critical resistance band early this week.

30yr T-Bond Bulls and Bears are grappling for direction. Key off the breakout levels for market bias.

EURUSD Weekly Outlook:

What a whipsaw week the EURUSD had. The trend is a Bear, but is the correction over? Yields will play a big role for the next few days. Bearish momentum has the lead, and if the correction is going to continue, then the market should make a play for last weeks high. Use caution selling into another leg higher. It is still very possible that this currency will make a play for the critical resistance band. Watch Yields. If they are in retreat this week it is likely that the market will press higher move highs.

A dip below Friday’s low, will have the Bears target the critical monthly directional pivot level. If there is going to be any type of digestive trade it should develop here. Sustained trading below 1.0400 would be a big indication that the EURUSD is not through pounding new monthly lows. If Yields are rallying strong this week, then it is very likely to get a sell off into this area. Trading below here targets the 1.0344 level. 1.0194 is the extended Bearish objective.

GBPUSD Weekly Outlook:

GBPUSD traders have their work cut out for themselves this week. It will be a fight between the Bulls and the Bears as they fight for directional control. Trading above the monthly pivot level keeps this market in a holding pattern as it digests the long-term downtrend. Another run at resistance is the call for early in the week. The critical resistance band is the area to shoot for. Especially if Yields fall back. It is not likely that the Bulls will get above this area. However, a breach of the 1.2474 level has the potential to lift the Pound up the daily directional pivot level.

Trading under the monthly pivot level should spark fresh selling pressure and drop this market back to the 1.1739 level. Why so much? The answer is that fundamentals for the GBPUSD still look very bad. If Yields get a big move higher it is very possible for the Bears to slap this currency down to this lower extreme.

USDCHF Weekly Outlook:

Recent market action keeps the Swissie pointed South. A failure from last week’s low targets the short-term correction target band. This should be all that the Bears can squeeze out of a break for the USDCHF. It would take a big pull back in Yields to get the market under the 0.8808 level.

Sustained trading above last weeks low is not to be taken lightly. If Yields press new highs this week, then the USDCHF is very likely to bring the Bulls back in full force. The multi-month directional pivot level is the upside target. A breach of this area extends the bullish objective to the upside breakout level. 0.9345 and 0.9539 are the longer-term monthly targets.

USDJPY Weekly Outlook:

More choppy behavior is likely for the USDJPY this week. Trading below the upside breakout level keeps the market in a range trade down to the critical support band. Only a failure from the 146.42 level confirms weakness that targets the directional pivot level. Unless there is any BOJ action or a big pull back in Yields, the market should hold above this area.

A breach of the upside breakout level and the Bulls target the 152.75 level. Even if Yields do not press higher there is the threat of a big rally in the Crude Oil market. If Crude rallies big, then it is very likely that the USDJPY will maintain a very Bullish posture for months to come. The Middle East conflict has no short end in sight, and that is Bullish for Crude and the Yen.

AUDUSD Weekly Outlook:

Treading on thin ice or rounding out a bottom? The AUDUSD is under some extreme pressure, and a test of the downside breakout level is on the menu. 0.6160 is the first stop for the Bears if the market sets new move lows. Be careful trying to fight trading in this area. Downside momentum is expected to build targeting the 0.6075 – 0.6066 support band.

Trading between the breakout levels will be a tough range trade as the Aussie tries to stabilize the Bear trend. Only a violation of the upside breakout level confirms any strength for this market. If there is a big pull back in Yields, then there is a chance for the AUDUSD Bulls to reach these higher levels. 0.6685 is the upside correction target extreme should the USD get hit with a big correction.

NZDUSD Weekly Outlook:

This is the currency that had shown the most promise in the short run to be looking for a turn against the USD. Trading above the downside breakout level keeps the NZDUSD poised for a challenge of the upside correction zone. Even if Yields retreat, the market is not likely to get above the 0.6146 level. With the new election results looking towards a more stable government it does not change the fact that New Zealand is broke and spiraling economically.

A failure from the downside breakout level targets the 0.5610 – 0.5595 support band. That is about all that should occur from a new leg lower. However, if Yields really surge higher this market has the potential to hit the 0.5375 level.

USDCAD Weekly Outlook:

Can you say swing traders delight the last couple of weeks? Boy has the USDCAD given Bulls and Bears some decent market action. Another test of the critical support band is expected. If there is a dip under the 1.3532 level then the Bears are likely to try and get back towards the downside breakout level. 1.3050 is the long-term Bearish objective should the trend truly reverse.

Sustained trading above the critical support band will have the Bulls gearing up for a run at new highs towards the upside target level. The key is how Yields act. If Yields press new highs in a big way over the next couple of weeks the USDCAD could reach the 1.3950 level. With the Canadian economy overwhelmed and imploding it is not to hard for this scenario to pan out.