The Tiger Forex Report – Week of 10/21 – 10/25/2024

The DXY Bulls are defying the fundamentals and are expected to challenge resistance again this week.

Crude Oil Bears are holding the downtrend intact, and another test of support is likely.

30yr T-Bond Bears are keeping Yields up and are also helping to boost USD Bulls.

EURUSD Weekly Outlook:

The trend is very steep in the EURUSD, but this week the market may start to stabilize. Bears have the downside target #1 in their sights, and a test of this area is likely. With Yields flirting with higher move highs, it would be wise to stick with the trend until there is a clear reversal of fortune. Downside target #2 is the longer-term objective for the Bears.

Sustained trading above last week’s low will keep this FX pair in a digestive phase. Get ready for a choppy trade. If the Bulls turn this market around it will be a fight back to the upside correction zone. This is all that is expected. If there is a close above the upside breakout level there will be an update.

GBPUSD Weekly Outlook:

Is the downside correction over for the GBPUSD? The overall trend is Bullish, but the short-term trend may not be done testing support. Key off last week’s low. A failure from here keeps the Pound on edge looking for a test of the downside correction zone. This is all on the agenda for the Bears because expectations of the Bull trend returning are high. If there is a close below the downside correction zone there will be an update.

Above last week’s low the market will most likely settle into a digestive phase, and may put swing traders’ actions on pause for a few sessions. Watch the economic numbers this week to spark a move. Until Yields start to pull back it will be tough to maintain rallies. However, if there is a sharp turn in Yields a strong upside move may be generated. The upside correction zone should be the extreme for a higher move this week.

USDCHF Weekly Outlook:

USDCHF Bulls have been working hard to grind higher. Be careful. This move is generated because of higher Yields. If the DXY remains firm this currency should keep scraping the ceiling. This could help the trend stay intact and make the upside target #1 a viable objective over the next couple of weeks.

It would be wise to be a skittish Bull in the USDCHF this week. The rug could get ripped out from under Bulls' feet quickly. A turn in the DXY would most likely set this market up to have a sharp drop back onto support. The Bearish correction band would be a very likely area to retrace back to. Be careful if the market returns to these levels. Downside momentum is likely to build and keep the Bears in control looking to fall below the downside breakout level. If there is one thing that is still evident. This currency pair is in a long-term Bear trend and it is expected to remain intact.

USDJPY Weekly Outlook:

Higher Yields are propping up the USDJPY. It is a tight trade as the market hangs on the monthly directional pivot level. Use this for the market's directional bias. If Yields remain firm the Bulls will be pressing resistance. The extended upside target level is the extreme Bullish objective. It is not likely that the market will reach this area this week unless there is a big rally in Crude Oil. Keep an eye on that market if you are a Bull.

The downside correction zone is a good area for the market to pull back to if there is going to be a profit-taking move. There are too many variables that point to the USDJPY holding firm. Only a failure from the downside breakout level would reverse the outlook and confirm the Bears' intention to keep the USDJPY surfing in the gutter.

AUDUSD Weekly Outlook:

AUDUSD Bears are holding this market in the downside correction zone. The trend is an overall Bull and a bounce is expected. It is very likely that this currency will stabilize in a sideways trade for a few sessions before making a run for higher levels. Most likely it will take a week or two, but the upside correction zone is now on the menu for the next course of action.

Only a close under the downside breakout level would confirm the intention of the market to slam lower move lows. The monthly directional pivot level will most likely be targeted. The short-term trend is a Bull, but the long-term trend is a big-range trade. We may be falling into another wide-range trade. Use caution trading this market and stay nimble.

NZDUSD Weekly Outlook:

Is the NZDUSD finding an area to bounce off? The critical support band is expected to hold. If the market gets below here it would be a good indication that the Bears are on a mission to hit the downside target #1. This should be the extreme for an extended sell-off.

If the Bulls are going to regain control of direction the market must get back above the downside breakout level. This is a key area. Only a sustained trade above here confirms a short-term bounce is trying to manifest. The critical correction band is the longer-term Bullish target.

USDCAD Weekly Outlook:

Bullish momentum remains firm in the USDCAD. A challenge of the upside target #1 is likely this week. Do not try and get in front of this rally. A close above this area this week would be a good sign that the market is on a mission for new monthly highs. If Yields remain firm the Bulls should stay in control.

If there is a pullback in Yields this week there may be a profit-taking break. This would set the USDCAD up to make a play for the downside correction band. It is time for a profit-taking move, and this area should be an easy sell-off objective. Not much more downside action is expected this week. Only a strong sell-off in the DXY would change this outlook.