The Tiger Forex Report 11-20-23
The Tiger Forex Report – Week of 11/20 – 11/24/2023
DXY Bears are slamming support. The downside target level is in sight while Yields are pulling back.
Crude Oil took another dump last week. Another test of the critical support band is very likely.
30yr T-Bond bulls are pressing the upside correction zone. Higher move highs are still the forecast this week in front of the Thanksgiving holiday.
EURUSD Weekly Outlook:
As the USD falls into correction mode the EURUSD remains in a Bullish posture. The upside target level is the objective for early in the week. Remember it is a holiday week, and volume may get thin. Be careful if the market gets back into this area. Right now, the trend remains a Bear, and we are in a corrective rally. A close above the upside target level is required before we can start to consider a longer-term change in trend.
If the market falls below the daily directional pivot level the EURUSD will be in limbo. Geopolitical tensions are rising and have the potential to throw this market into a range trade for the next few weeks until there is more clarity. EU economic numbers are bleak. Industrial production is decreasing at a very high rate. This sets the Bears up to try and work their way back to the downside breakout level. That is about all that is likely out of a breaking market until the USD regains strength. The critical monthly directional pivot level is the extended sell off target.
GBPUSD Weekly Outlook:
British Pound Bulls are hanging in a critical resistance area. Sustained trading above 1.2393 keeps the market poised for a challenge of the daily directional pivot level. Trading back in this area is a positive indication that the market will try to reach the upside correction target level. A close above the 1.2594 level is needed before we can start to think that the overall trend is changing. The current move is still viewed as a correction.
A failure from 1.2393 puts the GBPUSD in range trade mode down to the downside breakout level. Since the USD is under pressure the market should not have any harsh breaks. Only a failure from the downside breakout level confirms the long-term trend is back in gear. Be careful. If the USD bounces hard, it is likely that this FX pair will slam support. 1.1739 and 1.1550 are the downside target levels.
USDCHF Weekly Outlook:
While the USD is under pressure the USDCHF Bears are taking advantage. Downside momentum is likely to keep the market on edge flirting with a dip under the 0.8814 level. A failure from here is expected to spark fresh selling pressure. 0.8662 and 0.8528 are the downside sell off objectives. Watch Yields also. While Yields are in retreat it is likely to keep this market pointed lower.
Only a sustained trade above the 0.8888 level takes us off the aggressive Bear campaign. The upside correction zone is the target. This is likely to cap any Bullish advance until the USD regains strength. If the Bulls can get above 0.9093 make sure to keep your stops tight. A big rally in the USD is needed to confirm any extended strength.
USDJPY Weekly Outlook:
USDJPY Bears are leaning on support in a big way. A failure from the downside breakout level is very likely early in the week. Trading under here keeps the Bears in control looking for a test of the critical support band. Watch the USD. If the USD continues lower it should help this FX pair keep pressing newer move lows towards the directional pivot level. With Yields pulling back it may be just what is needed to press a new leg lower all the way to the downside correction zone.
Trading above the downside breakout level keeps the market in a range trade below the recent highs. A rally above the upside breakout level is required to confirm fresh strength. The USD and Yields are in corrective mode, and this should put a halt to any strong shows of strength. If the Bulls get above 151.92 the USDJPY targets the 152.75 and 154.22 levels.
AUDUSD Weekly Outlook:
The Aussie is hovering below strong resistance. Key off the upside breakout level. A breach of this level targets the upside correction zone. The fundamentals for this currency are bad at best. Even with the USD under pressure it is not likely to give too much of a lift for the market. A close above the 0.6657 level is needed before any change in the long-term trend can be considered.
Below the upside breakout level, the market will be in a range trade all the way to the downside breakout level. The AUDUSD has been in a choppy trade for months, and more of the same may be the outcome for the next few weeks. A failure from the downside breakout level targets 0.6160. This should be it for newer lows unless the USD Bulls come back. Then the downside objective is extended to the 0.6075-0.6066 support band.
NZDUSD Weekly Outlook:
Like a balloon under water the NZDUSD exploded to newer move highs into the upside correction zone. Another run at resistance is likely this week, but we are heading into a holiday trade. The 0.6093 level is expected to hold back the Bulls. A close above this area is needed before any consideration for extended trend strength can be taken seriously.
Sustained trading under 0.6017 keeps the Bears in a negative posture all the way back to the directional pivot level. This area should hold if the USD remains under pressure. However, if the USD regains strength the Bears have a chance to slam new lows all the way down towards the 0.5610-0.5995 support band.
USDCAD Weekly Outlook:
As Yields and the USD are in retreat the USDCAD is starting to look weak. Another test of support early in the week is likely. As the USD continues to fall this market should continue back into the critical support band. If the Bears get to this area, it would confirm the Head & Shoulders Sell signal. Trading under 1.3572 would indicate the markets intentions to try and stretch new lows towards the downside breakout level. If this currency cross pulls back to this area it may start a longer-term change in trend.
Should the Bulls can get a print above 1.3901 the market targets 1.3950 level. It is unlikely that the USDCAD will get back to this area without a big rally in the USD. If that occurs it would change the outlook to Bullish. 1.4075 is the extended upside target. Consecutive closes above 1.3901 are necessary to confirm that the long-term Bulls are back.