The Tiger Forex Report – Week of 11/21 – 11/25 /2022

DXY is weighing heavy on Support. Higher Yields and higher Crude Oil is necessary to lift the USD.

Crude Oil Bears are relentless, but it still looks like a trap. Use caution at these levels.

30yr T-Bond is under the gun, and the Fed has not changed their stance yet. The trend is you friend.

EURUSD Weekly Outlook:

Struggling with new move highs the EURUSD will be eyeing Yields this holiday week. Lower Yields will keep this currency adrift under resistance. A rally above 1.0482 targets the 1.0591 level. The Bulls look like they are out of momentum, but other markets may push the trend. A close above 1.0662 is needed to confirms any Long-term Bullish trend change.

Trading below 1.0482 has this currency poised for a turn on support. The 1.0108-1.0019 downside target zone is what the Bears have their sights locked on. Remember there is a Fed meeting in a few weeks, and there will be at least one more rate hike yet to come after December. If Yields take off again the EURUSD will most likely be knocked down hard. Parity is a magnate for this market, and odds are strong that it will be hit again over the next few months.

GBPUSD Weekly Outlook:

Cowering to resistance? Is it a pause? Watch out for a spike into the upside correction zone. This Bull has been a grind lately, and a test of support is likely. Trading under 1.2062 keeps the GBPUSD pointed lower. Use last weeks High as a key risk level. We may be in for a sloppy range trade for the next week or so. Remember it is a holiday market in the U.S. this week. If Yields go up then there might be a nice sell off. Only a failure from 1.1141 confirms extended weakness, and another leg lower down towards 1.0500.

Above 1.2062 the Bulls have a fight up towards the 1.2188 level. Not much is expected beyond this area. Only a close above 1.2188 confirms the Bullish intentions of the market to make a play up towards the 1.2679 level.

USDCHF Weekly Outlook:

We have an upside correction fighting to recapture ground for the Bulls. USDCHF buyers have kept this market positive for a week, but not much of a bounce. Key off Yields this week for direction. If the Yields start to go up in a big way, then there should be another leg higher in this market. The 0.9772-0.9862 upside correction zone is not irrational for a rally after the recent hammering this currency pair has had.

If the Bears can take the market back under 0.9440, then there is likely to be a tough downside trade. 0.9372 is the first target on a break that targets the 0.9255 level. It is very doubtful that the market will fall back towards this lower boundary unless there is a big pull back in Interest Rates. Probably not going to even be on the table for another four months at least.

USDJPY Weekly Outlook:

The BOJ is happy with the breaking USDJPY, but the Bears are slowing down. Trading above 137.64 keeps the market set for a bounce up towards the 144.83-146.53 upside correction zone. Yields are in corrective mode, but set to rise again. If there is a Bearish slide in the Interest Rate markets then expect the USDJPY to keep looking for higher move highs.

We are heading into a holiday market in the U.S., and this market could maintain its sideways posture. There may not be much on the table when it comes to pips. Only a failure from 137.64 confirms the Bears intentions to make a play for the 134.51 level. This is very unlikely though. It would take intervention from the BOJ, and a reversal in the Fed’s tone to produce such a slide before the next meeting in December.

AUDUSD Weekly Outlook:

Covid lockdowns in China are slowing the Aussie recovery. The AUDUSD was looking like the current rally might not just be a correction. The market has run into strong resistance, and an extended slide lower is expected. 0.6389 is the level that the Bears are looking to hit. If the market gets under here, it may touch off an avalanche of fresh selling pressure. 0.5987 is the long-term downside trend target.

Trading above last week’s High is needed to confirm any sustainable strength. If Interest Rates maintain the pull back, then it is likely that the AUDUSD Bulls will try and make a go at the 0.7077 long-term upside correction zone boundary.

NZDUSD Weekly Outlook:

NZDUSD momentum is holding the upside trend intact. Strong resistance is keeping this market in a holding pattern. No Sell signals yet. Key off o the 0.6204 level. Trading under here has the market on hold for a possible profit taking slide. The 0.5839-0.5771 downside correction zone should help keep the currency from dropping much lower. Yields are holding back, and it is helping this market. Until the Interest Rate market lifts yields it will be hard to get a major break in this currency pair.

Bears should be wise to not be short above 0.6204. Fresh buying is likely to enter the market fueling a rally towards the 0.6531 extended upside correction zone threshold. Yields are likely to start to rise again soon, and rallies are not likely to hold. With a December Fed meeting on the horizon this currency might be ready to settle into a wide range trade.

USDCAD Weekly Outlook:

USDCAD Bulls are making a go at it. Key off the 1.3351 directional pivot level. An early challenge of resistance is likely. 1.3495 is the threshold to cross. Trading above here should spark fresh buying for a rally that targets the 1.3816 upside breakout level. If yields are rising this week, then it would set the table for another leg higher in this market. New move highs for the holiday???

Trading under 1.3351 slips this currency back into the gutter for a tough trade down towards the 1.3198 level. Be careful with any print under here. Selling pressure is likely to reenter the market and drive the USDCAD towards the 1.2997-1.2769 Monthly downside correction zone. This is unlikely to occur unless there is a big dip in yields. (Rally in the 30yr and 10yr) Remember it is a holiday market, and volume and volatility may get very thin by Wednesday’s trade. Enjoy what the market gives you, and enjoy your Thanksgiving holiday too.