The Tiger Forex Report – Week of 11/25 – 11/29/2024

The DXY will be in a tizzy this week with holiday markets and Jobless Claims on Wednesday. Keep it tight Monday and Tuesday…Gobble…Gobble…Happy Thanksgiving! Spike High last Friday…Maybe.

Crude Oil Bulls are on the move, with a profit-taking correction pressing up to the upper boundary of the range. Do not get too excited. Range trade conditions are likely for months!

30yr T-Bond traders are stuck in a range trade. Get ready for a tug-o-war fight!

EURUSD Weekly Outlook:

EURUSD traders have a bit of things to deal with in the midst of a holiday market. Our holiday does not stop the global markets. It just cuts liquidity. Friday was a Spike Low, and that is the base of our shortened week. There is some light resistance in front of the upside correction zone, but it is weak. Yields may not be turning, but a USD sell-off is in the makings. Use caution selling into this corrective rally. The Bulls could lift his currency up to the monthly directional pivot level over the next couple of weeks.

The Bears have a tough go of it this week. Only a break below Friday’s low confirms weakness. If this occurs before Wednesday we will have an update. Otherwise, it does not matter. Yields are due for a pullback to lift the currency pairs against the USD.

GBPUSD Weekly Outlook:

GBPUSD traders stamped a low on Friday and they are set for a correction. Key off the monthly directional pivot level for directional bias. Trading above here will be a Bullish sign that the market is set for a rally into the upside correction zone. This should put a cap on a correction, and the trend is set to resume the downward bias. Only a rally above the upside breakout level would change the outlook.

If the market takes out Friday’s low then look out. Do not try and pick a bottom. The downside target level is the first stop on a move that could reach the 1.2275 level over the next few weeks. Watch Yields. If Yields stay firm then more downside action is most likely the call for the week ahead.

USDCHF Weekly Outlook:

The Bulls really tried to press the upside last week, but the momentum has likely run out of gas. Key off the high of last week. Trading below here is a good indication that the market is set to digest recent gains. USDCHF traders may be in for some sideways digestive trading. It may be time to step aside from this currency. The downside breakout level is the key area. A failure here would be a sign that the market is set to press support into the Bearish correction band.

If the Bulls can take our last week’s high then the Bulls will be back in action. New move highs target the upside target level. Not much is expected beyond here unless Yields really get a boost. This is not likely in front of another FED meeting. Expect choppy conditions as we press highs for the Bulls. The overall long-term trend is still set to push the Bulls back and resume a long-term Bear trend.

USDJPY Weekly Outlook:

It has been quite the run for the USDJPY over the past few weeks, and it may be time for some digestive trading. Key off the directional pivot level. Trading above here keeps the market poised for higher move highs. The long-term target level is the objective especially if Yields remain firm.

Below the directional pivot level the Bears will be on a mission to test the downside breakout level. This is strong support. Trading below here is a sign that the market is going to press support hard. The downside correction zone is the first stop for a correction lower. Do not fight a break under this area. Fresh selling pressure could send the market slamming through support all the way to the downside target level before there is any bounce.

AUDUSD Weekly Outlook:

What a mess down under. AUDUSD traders are trying to hold a bottom and reverse the trend. Most likely it is a pause for the cause, and more Bearish action is looming. Key off the major trend support level. Trading above here keeps the market in limbo as it tries to fight the longer-term trend. Use caution trying to fight a slide below here. Momentum is likely to build and slam new lows toward the downside target level.

A rally above the monthly directional pivot level is secret for the Bulls' success. Sustained trading above here is the key to lifting the market through resistance. The upside correction Zone should put a cap on higher move highs. Only a big pullback in Yields would justify further upside action. The trend remains a Bear unless the upside breakout level is pierced… not likely for a while.

NZDUSD Weekly Outlook:

Ho hum trading conditions may be the call for the NZDUSD as the Bears scrape newer move lows. The downside target level is the key to holding the market up. A failure here is a sign that this currency is set to slam lows further. Be careful. Bearish pressure could ignite fresh selling and slam new move lows down toward the 0.5745 level.

Only a rally above last week's high would confirm the market's resolve to get a correction under way. The critical correction band should hold the market in check. And be carful not to get married to long trades in this area. If the trend is going to reverse there needs to be consecutive closes above the upside breakout level to confirm that the trend is trying to reverse direction.

USDCAD Weekly Outlook:

This is an interesting trade lately. Last Monday’s sell-off sparked a short-term reversal. The downside correction band is holding firm. Key off this area. Trading under here keeps the Bears in profit-taking mode as the currency drifts back towards the downside breakout level. There is not likely to be any trading under here unless Yields start to drop. Not likely this week.

Sustained trading above the downside correction band would be a positive indication that the Bulls are going to recapture control. New move highs could be in the future if Yields remain firm. Do not fight a rally above last week’s high. The Bulls could easily touch the upside target level before pulling back to support again. The reality is Canada’s economy is collapsing without any sign of help. The long-term trend for this currency is a Bull. Not because of USD strength, but because CAD weakness is overwhelming.