The Tiger Forex Report – Week of 11/28 – 12/02/2022

DXY is riding support, but a rally is expected before the Fed Meeting.

Crude Oil Bears are helping prices at the pump. Winter storms should bring the Bulls back.

30yr T-Bond Bulls are lifting the market, but this correction is running out of gas.

EURUSD Weekly Outlook:

EURUSD Bulls helped knock the Greenback down for the holiday, but it fell short of new move highs. Key off the upside breakout level at 1.0482. A rally above here should spark fresh buying for a blow off rally into the upside correction zone. There is a Fed meeting soon, and rate hikes are still inevitable. This FX pair is ripe for a deep pull back towards new move lows.

Trading under 1.0482 keeps this market in limbo. Watch yields. If yields go bid then the EURUSD is likely to fall back towards the 1.0108-1.0019 downside correction zone. Be careful. Odds are good that this currency is ripe for a dip bellow parity. If you think the U.S. economy is teetering…the E.U. is in an even bigger mess. 0.9577 is the long-term downside target.

GBPUSD Weekly Outlook:

GBPUSD Bulls climbed into the upside correction zone. With yields set to rise again it is likely that this market will run out of upside momentum soon. Use the 1.2188 level for direction. Above here this currency will be flirting with a challenge of the 1.2679 long-term directional pivot level. With the looming Fed rate hike, odds are high that this currency should be ripe for a pull back towards support.

Trading under 1.2188 slows the Bulls down, and has the market set for a dip under the 1.2062 level. Sustained trading below here should set off fresh selling pressure that targets the 1.1646-1.1516 downside correction zone. If the GBPUSD is to keep the short-term Bull trend alive then this area should hold. A failure from this area confirms weakness and targets the 1.1141 critical support level. If the BOE does not raise rates again soon, then this market may see new lows by January.

USDCHF Weekly Outlook:

If there is one Forex market that is showing strength against the USD it is the USDCHF. Although it did not make a lower move low last week this market is set to ride support. Use the key directional pivot level for market bias. Below 0.9440 the USDCHF will be on edge targeting the 0.9066 support level. With the Fed meeting in a couple of weeks it is not likely the Bears can pull much more out of a break.

Sustained trading above 0.9440 has this market set for a sideways range trade all the way back towards the 0.9772 level. If this market really is a Bear, then it will stay below 0.9862. A rally above here confirms Bullish strength targeting the 1.0152 upside breakout level. If yields start to go higher then this market may get a very strong boost.

USDJPY Weekly Outlook:

USDJPY Bears tried to make lower move lows and failed. Use the 137.64 Bearish pivot level for direction. Trading above here will keep the market in a holding pattern up towards the 144.83-146.53 upside correction zone. Let the Interest Rate markets give you a clue about direction. If yields start to rise sharply, then this will favor the market Bulls in front of the Fed meeting. 156.11 is the long-term upside objective for this currency pair if the Fed remains Very Hawkish over the next few months.

A failure from 137.64 confirms the Bears are in control as the market pounds new move lows. The strong long-term support level at 134.51 is the first downside target. It would be a big surprise if the USDJPY gets under this area. The BOJ is doing nothing, and the Fed is about to raise rates again. Make sure to watch the interest rate market this week. Higher yields are likely to slow down any Bearish momentum. Until April…the USDJPY should stay weak, but there is new leadership on the horizon at the BOJ. Time will tell.

AUDUSD Weekly Outlook:

Aussie Bulls failed to make newer move highs, and the trend may be flattening in front of the next Fed meeting. China is in lockdown, commodity prices are dropping, and the BOA needs further counter measures to support this currency. All of this sets the current rally up to stall. Key off interest rates. Lower yields should prop up this Forex pair for an extended leg higher targeting the 0.7077 long-term upside correction zone.

This market may be ready for a big consolidation trade back down towards the 0.6389 critical support pivot level. This is a key support level keeping the short-term trend intact. A failure here is a very Bearish indication that this market will slam newer move lows. 0.5987 is the extended downside objective for the AUDUSD.

NZDUSD Weekly Outlook:

NZDUSD Bulls are pressing new move highs without looking back. This is another currency pair that is helping to slap the Dollar Index lower. Trading above the 0.6204 upside breakout level targets newer move highs up towards the 0.6531 extended upside correction zone. However, yields may spoil the party. If interest rates rally, then it is unlikely the NZDUSD will maintain the fierce Bullish posture.

Trading below 0.6204 puts the NZDUSD on edge for a break that targets the 0.6020-0.5951 downside correction zone. If the short-term Bull trend is to remain intact, then this is it for a correction. A print under 0.5951 is a very bearish indication that the market is set for lower. Watch the interest rate markets. If the Bears pound the 30yr T-Bond then it is likely that this FX pair will fall hard on support.

USDCAD Weekly Outlook:

Talk about a market stuck in a rut. Do not be surprised if there is more sideways action for the next couple of weeks. Lower yields will have the USDCAD flirting with a downward slide to test the 1.3198 downside breakout level. This area is expected to hold firm. Only a sharp drop in yields is likely to keep fueling downside momentum and targets the 1.2997-1.2769 Monthly downside correction zone.

Trading above 1.3351 sets the USDCAD for a challenge of the 1.3495 level. A breach of this level confirms new move highs, and a potential for fresh buying. 1.3816 is the first upside objective on a move that has the potential to trend higher into the end of 2022. 1.4111 is the long-term upside target. The Fed is ahead of the BOC, and the Bulls are likely to take advantage of this.