The Tiger Forex Report – Week of 11/06 – 11/10/2023

The DXY broke out of its range and is set to press support. A correction is long overdue, and more downside action is expected.

Crude Oil Bears are holding this market down. With global tensions rising it is expected to bring the Bulls back and make a run for the critical resistance band.

30yr T-Bond Bulls broke out to the upside after the FED meeting. Yields are expected to continue to retract into the upside correction zone.

EURUSD Weekly Outlook:

The EURUSD is pressing strong resistance, and a play for the daily directional pivot level is the call early in the week. A breach of this level is a positive indication that the market will continue to the upside target level. With Yields on the down swing, it is likely that this market will continue to work on a correction higher.

A failure from the downside breakout level is a good indication that the market is set to press the critical monthly directional pivot level. 1.0344 is the first objective on a slide that could hit 1.0194 before there is a pause. Yields may be pulling back, and that may slow the slide in the EURUSD. The overall trend is a Bear, and it would be wise to keep that outlook until there is a confirmed turn in the market.

GBPUSD Weekly Outlook:

The GBPUSD took off like a balloon under water last week, and more Bullish action is likely. A breach of 1.2742 will have the Bulls aiming for the daily directional pivot level. This is the first stop on a rally that has the potential to hit the upside correction target level before there is a pause. This is all that is on the agenda for a higher trading market. All upside action is viewed as a correction, and the overall trend is likely to return.

Only a sustained trade below 1.2393 level will put the rally on hold as the market digests recent strength. If the Bears return it will be a choppy trade back to the 1.2100 area. Fundamentals are not good for this market, and it is likely that the GBPUSD will resume the Bear trend. It would be unwise to fight a slide below the 1.2100 level. 1.1739 is the extended sell off objective.

USDCHF Weekly Outlook:

The Swissie fell off strong resistance last week, and is set for another test of support. If this is just a corrective move the market should find a floor in the critical support band. Only a failure from the 0.8814 level confirms extended weakness. 0.8808 is the extended downside target.

If the Bulls come back, they will have a tough time getting through the short-term critical correction band. Remember the trend is still a Bull in the long-term. A rally above 0.9108 should not be taken lightly. If the Bulls get back above here the USDCHF is very likely to make a run for the upside breakout level. 0.9388 is the longer-term upside target.

USDJPY Weekly Outlook:

Wow what a spike high in the USDJPY. Key off last weeks high. Trading below here has the Bears on edge looking to fall back into the critical support band. If the current slide is just a correction, then this area is likely to hold. Only a failure from the 147.15 level confirms weakness. This would give the market a good shot at falling back into the downside correction zone.

A rally above the upside breakout level will have the USDJPY aimed at the 152.75 level. If the market gets back above here fresh buying is expected to enter the market. 154.22 is the extended long-term upside target.

AUDUSD Weekly Outlook:

Aussie Bulls are on a terror and set for more upside action. If momentum holds firm, then the upside correction zone becomes a viable objective. This is all that is likely out of a rally because fundamentals are very bad for the AUDUSD. If the market gets a close above 0.6657 then the trend will be reevaluated.

Down to 0.6273 it will be a choppy range trade. A failure from 0.6273 confirms the trend is back on track. 0.6160 is the first stop on a move that has the potential to hit the 0.6075-0.6066 support band. Especially if Yields get back on the rally track. If that occurs, then new monthly lows are very likely.

NZDUSD Weekly Outlook:

The Bulls took advantage of the Yield reversal and catapulted the NZDUSD higher last week. A challenge of the upside correction zone is expected this week. It will be tough getting above here because of the economic fundamentals. Only a close above 0.6093 confirms any extended strength. 0.6200 is the longer-term upside objective.

Down to the directional pivot level it will be a tough trade. Only a failure from here confirms that the Bear trend is back in gear. Use caution fighting a break into this area. Downside momentum is expected to build and slam the NZDUSD all the way towards the 0.5610-0.5595 support band.

USDCAD Weekly Outlook:

The USDCAD reversed hard, and a continued test of support is on the menu this week. If this is just a correction, then this area should hold up. Trading under 1.3572 would be a negative indication that the market is going to press the downside. 1.3412 is the extended Bearish objective.

Trading up to the upside breakout level will be a grind as the market grapples with the trend. Only a breach of the upside breakout level confirms strength and a continuation of the trend. 1.3950 is the first target on a move that has the potential to hit the 1.4075 level before there is a pause. If Yields start to rally again it would be very likely that the USDCAD Bulls will come back in full force.