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The Tiger Forex Report – Week of 12/11 – 12/15/2023

The DXY had a tough trade with the FED meeting last week. An early challenge of resistance is likely early in the week.

Crude Oil continues to press newer move lows. This is a very nice gift at the pumps, but be careful. A corrective profit taking bounce is expected.

30yr T-Bond Bulls are pulling Yields back, and a challenge of the critical long-term directional pivot level is in the cards.

EURUSD Weekly Outlook:

The EURUSD took a bit of a hit last week, and another test of support is expected this week. A grinding trade lower is the call down into the critical support band. If there is a dip below 1.0664 it would be a good indication that the Bears will hammer newer move lows that target the downside breakout level. This should put a floor on a lower trading market. But watch Yields. If there is a big reversal in interest rates this currency could be leaning on multi-month lows in now time.

Only a rally above the daily directional pivot level confirms strength for a fresh leg higher that targets the critical correction band. If the Bears are really turning this currency, it is unlikely that this currency pair will rise above this area. Trading above 1.0922 should not be taken lightly. Fresh buying is expected to enter the market above here and extend the Bullish objective to the upside target level.

GBPUSD Weekly Outlook:

The Bears are trying to drag the GBPUSD lower. Key of the daily directional pivot level for direction. Trading below here keeps the market on edge looking for a dip into the critical support band. This should hold up if this currency is going to bounce. A failure from 1.2302 would be a good sign that lower move lows could reach the downside breakout level. If Yields get a rally going it would not be hard for this FX pair to fall back into this area.

Only a sustained trade above 1.2594 confirms a fresh run for newer move highs. The upside correction target is the objective. Expect a tough fight in this area. If the Bulls get above 1.2732 then it would be unwise to fight newer move highs. Fresh buying pressure could send this market all the way up to 1.2985 before there is a pause.

USDCHF Weekly Outlook:

The USDCHF caught a nice boost last week. An early challenge of resistance is on the menu this week. If the USD firms up, then this market should benefit with rally that targets the upside correction zone. This should cap any extended strength if the trend is to remain a Bear. If the market gets above 0.9026 the Bulls will have their sights on the extended upside target level.

Only a failure from the downside target level confirms that the Bear trend is still in full effect. Be careful trying to fade newer move lows. Downside momentum is likely to grow below 0.8662 and slam the market all the way down to the extended downside target level. If Yields continue their march higher it would probably aid the Bears in the USDCHF. Make sure to keep an eye on this if it develops.

USDJPY Weekly Outlook:

Slamajama reaction in the USDJPY last week the downside correction zone is now a key basing area for this currency. Buy the rumor sell the fact scenario shaping up here. Key off the directional pivot level for the markets bias as things stabilize. Trading above here targets the 150.00 level. If Yields start to rise again it would not be out of the question to see this FX pair pressing newer move highs back up towards the upside breakout level.

Extended trading below 145.09 would most likely mean that the Bears are ready to hammer support again down towards the 142.76 level. Do not fight a slide below here. 140.77 is the extended longer-term sell off objective. Keep an eye on the BOJ over the next few weeks for an indication of more volatility.

AUDUSD Weekly Outlook:

AUDUSD traders are at an inflection point. Should USD strength return this week, it is likely to drag the market back towards the critical correction support band. If the short-term rally in place is to hold this area should remain a firm bouncing point. A failure from 0.6392 would be a sign that the Bears will be laying on the downside breakout level quickly.

If the USD gets hit this week it should help fuel another run for newer move highs and challenge the high set last Monday. If the market gets above here momentum should continue to build and send the AUDUSD all the way up to the extended upside target. 0.6920 is the longer-term bullish target.

NZDUSD Weekly Outlook:

The rally in the NZDUSD is running out of steam, and a lower trading market early in the week is expected. If there is a boost to the USD, then the downside correction zone becomes a viable area to shoot for this week. Trading back in this area drops the market back into the heart of the range for the past few months. Get ready for some choppy action as we wind down the year.

Only a rally above 0.6167 confirms the NZDUSD Bulls are ready to press newer move highs up towards the 0.6277 level. 0.6465 is the longer-term upside objective. Be careful hanging on to Long trades at these higher levels. If the USD reverses gears the NZDUSD should get hit hard fast by the Bears.

USDCAD Weekly Outlook:

The USDCAD bounced off key support last week. Trading above the downside breakout level keeps the Bulls ready for another run at higher levels. Fresh buying is expected to enter the market early this week and drive this currency up towards the upside correction band. This should be it for a higher trading market this week unless the USD really catches a boost. 1.4022 is the long-term bullish target.

A failure from the downside breakout level would be a negative indication that the market is kicking the Bear trend into high gear. The downside breakout level is the first stop on a slide that could pound new monthly lows all the way down to the 1.3225 – 1.3215 support band. If Yields continue to pull back this week, then the Bears in the USDCAD will most likely be able to capitalize on a heavy “sell rally” forecast.