The Tiger Forex Report – Week of 12/16 – 12/20/2024

The DXY is riding the Bull train defying the fundamentals and technical aspects of the world…and it is FED week. Strange things are amiss at the Circle K…get ready for a ride.

Crude Oil is breaking out to the upside and it is pushing the upper band of the trading range. Get ready for some coal in your stockings. Gas prices are going up for Christmas.

30yr T-Bond Bulls are bucking the fundamentals. Take that, Economists! I guess you guys will have to wait a few years to explain this (As usual). The market is dictating higher rates. While the FED cuts.

EURUSD Weekly Outlook:

EURUSD Bulls are trying to ride the FED wave, but the USD is not lying down. What is a trader to do? Word to the wise. Wait until after the release. It is the end of the quarter soon and we are heading into holiday markets. Pick your points and be realistic. With a rate cut most likely going to happen the market is favoring the Bulls. A run for the upside correction zone is the call for the week.

If the Bears can get a break below the downside correction band there should be some fresh selling pressure that enters the market. This puts the downside breakout level in the Bears’ sights. Be careful of a spike low. The trend may be Bearish, but all of the pieces spell a corrective rally.

GBPUSD Weekly Outlook:

Weakness is setting the stage in front of the FED meeting. Expect a sideways market into the rate cut that is most likely going to occur. It will be a choppy trade around the monthly directional pivot level. With a rate cut looming, there is a good chance at least for a short-term rally. That would put the upside breakout level in the Bulls' sights for the next week.

Only sustained trading below the monthly directional pivot level confirms weakness for this currency pair. If this occurs, the Bears will be gearing up for a slide that targets the downdie breakout level. If the market gets below here it would go against everything going on in the market this week. If there is a close in this area there will be an update.

USDCHF Weekly Outlook:

Can the USDCHF Bulls make a higher move high??? The DXY is strong, but all of the pundits say…What? Fed time will be the same old song and dance. Get ready for some sideways action into the FED meeting. If the market can hold above the upside breakout level, then there is a good chance that there could be a spike high this week. The upside target level should cap all upside action this week.

A pullback is what fundamentally should unfold this week. The rally in progress is a corrective move on the long-term scale. Watch the downside breakout level. If there is going to be a move towards reality there should be a close below here. The Bearish correction band is the first area to aim for. If this currency falls back into this area it is most likely setting up direction into the holidays.

USDJPY Weekly Outlook:

USDJPY Bulls are poised to challenge the upside breakout level. If there is a close above here there is a good chance that the market could make a play for the critical resistance band. Since there is a FED meeting this idea goes against the fundamentals. But the trend is your friend and that is in line with the call. A challenge of the upside breakout level should happen this week. The critical resistance band should be the extreme for newer move highs.

If the market turns south it will be looking to fall back toward the critical BOJ threshold level. Only a failure from here would confirm the trend is reversing. The downside correction band then becomes the new objective as the Bears take charge of direction.

AUDUSD Weekly Outlook:

The downtrend is in full force in this market. AUDUSD traders have this market on edge pounding support. Key off the downside target level for direction. Below here the Bears will be targeting new move lows. 0.6180 and 0.6095 are the extended sell-off objectives.

A sustained trade above the downside target level may help to reverse direction for a while. It will be a fight, but the Bulls may get enough of a boost from the FED to make a run at the upside breakout level. A close above here is needed to confirm strength. Trading above here sets the stage for a challenge of the upside correction zone. Fundamentally it is time for a corrective bounce for the Bears to take some profits.

NZDUSD Weekly Outlook:

The NZDUSD is on edge, and there is more Bearish pressure expected. New move lows target the 0.5675 and 0.5620 support levels. There are many fundamentals holding this currency down, but the FED meeting may provide some relief. But wait for a clear signal that this market is making a turn. Do not try and pick a bottom here.

If the market can get a sustained trade above the downside breakout level there is a chance for a corrective move to develop. The critical correction band will be the key area to pierce. If the market gets a close above here there is a good chance that the Bulls may be able to make a run at the upside breakout level. If there is a close above here there will be an update.

USDCAD Weekly Outlook:

It is time for the USDCAD to pull back. With the FED meeting this week it is likely that a spike high is going to occur. The upside breakout level is the key to direction here. If the market stays above here then this currency will be on a mission for the 1.4300 level. Technically this is a viable target. Fundamentally there should be a pullback before a move like this will occur. It will be interesting to see how this currency reacts this week.

Below the upside breakout level the Bears will be looking to let some air out of this balloon underwater rally. The downside correction band is the first stop for a lower trade. If this is just a profit-taking slide the market should hold this area. Trading below here would be a big indication that the market is turning in the short term. If there is a closer below the downside breakout level this week there will be an update. Remember it is FED week. Follow-through momentum may be lacking until after the rate cut.