The Tiger Forex Report – Week of 12/26 – 12/29/2023

The DXY Bulls got a lump of coal for Christmas. Key of the critical long-term directional pivot level for the market’s directional bias this week. Be careful it is a short holiday week.

Crude Oil Futures are holding steady for Christmas. Most likely the trade will be range bound for the next week or so until we start the New Year.

30yr T-Bond Futures Bulls are making borrowers happy. Another run at resistance is likely into the upside target zone. Unless there is some big inflationary news that comes out.

EURUSD Weekly Outlook:

The Bulls are in motion and are ripe to keep pecking away at newer move highs. If the EURUSD can get a close above the upside target level 1, then the upside target zone becomes a viable objective. Watch Yields for further easing. Should the trend continue there, then this currency has the potential to sustain pressing multi-month highs.

Below the 1.1029 level the EURUSD will be in limbo back to the daily directional pivot level. Only a failure from here confirms weakness for an extended slide to the downside breakout level. Remember it is a holiday week. There may be some big swings without follow through. Most likely it will only be the machines trading this week so be careful. Should this FX pair close below the downside breakout level it would be a good indication that the market will be a tough trade as we head into the New Year.

GBPUSD Weekly Outlook:

This market had an uneventful trade last week. More of the same is likely for the GBPUSD until there is some clarity as to whether the BOE will start to cut rates. Trading below the upside breakout level keeps the market poised for a rough range trade back to the daily directional pivot level. Should the market fall below here the Bears will be making a hard-core push to slam the Pound down into the critical support band.

A rally above the upside breakout level should gear the GBPUSD Bulls up for a challenge of the 1.2969 upside target level. With a Dovish BOE lurking it will be tough to get above this area. If we can get a close above 1.2969 it would change our short-term neutral to Bearish outlook. The Fundamentals have still not changed for this currency and further weakness is expected.

USDCHF Weekly Outlook:

Well, the USDCHF Bears touched of newer move lows for Christmas. Key off the 0.8528 level for direction. A failure from here again should help the Bears get all the way to the DT #1 level. The trend is your friend, and there is no sign of a change. If we get a close below the 0.8441 level there will be an update. It is a holiday week. Do not expect too much the next few days.

Only a rally above the directional pivot level confirms the Bulls resolve to get a short-term correction going. This will be a tough ride, and it will be a good idea to watch the DXY. If the DXY can get a rally going, then the USDCHF may be able to set a fresh leg higher up towards the upside correction zone. A move like this would be a nice way to start 2024. USD strength is needed to solidify any view of strength though.

USDJPY Weekly Outlook:

A stabilizing trade developed for Christmas for the USDJPY. More of the same is likely this week until the New Year begins. Use the 140.77 level for direction. Trading above here keeps the market in a sideways trade up to the directional pivot level. Should the Bulls get a rally above here it may get dicey. Unless there is a big rally in the USD there is no reason to think that the market can hold above the 145.09 level for very long. Especially with looming BOJ action in the short-term future.

Below 140.77 the USDJPY will remain in an aggressive sell posture aimed at the 137.68 – 136.49 critical support band. Trading back in this area should set a base for the market. Until the BOJ pulls the trigger the Bears are not likely to get too strong of a hold on the market.

AUDUSD Weekly Outlook:

AUDUSD Bulls are raging forward into the holiday market. A challenge of resistance is the call for early in the week. The UT #1 0.6853 level is a very reachable objective. The UT #2 and UT #3 are the longer-term rally objectives.

There are no signs of a turn, but even if there is it is likely to get no lower than the critical correction support band. Until the DXY makes a turn it is unlikely that this market will get below this area. However, if Yields go higher again the AUDUSD could start to become a longer-term Bear again. Let us see how things look when we get a close below the 0.6440 level.

NZDUSD Weekly Outlook:

NZDUSD Bulls got there Christmas rally, and they are poised to challenge the upside target level #1. Be careful fading this rally. Upside momentum has the potential to drive this currency up to the 0.6399 – 0.6447 resistance band before there is a turn. The DXY remains in the gutter, and until things change, this market should remain strong.

Only a failure from the downside breakout level confirms weakness. The downside correction zone is expected to hold up if there is a Bearish correction. Fundamentals are bad for this currency, but until there is any strong turn in the USD this market will be hard to get into heavy Bear mode. Remember it is a holiday market, and things may be very choppy this week. Be aware that there may not be very many good opportunities until the New Year.

USDCAD Weekly Outlook:

The downside target zone put the breaks on newer move lows last week in the USDCAD. There is no sign of a reversal in this market, but the holiday trade may not offer much follow through. A dip below 1.3222 is a good sign that the market will press newer lows down towards the 1.3150 extended sell off target. If the market can get a close below this area there will be an update to evaluate further Bearish action.

Sustained trading above 1.3222 should keep the USDCAD in a choppy range trade up to the directional pivot level. Not much is expected for a higher trade in the market this week. Only a close above the 1.3379 level confirms short-term strength for an extended leg higher. The upside correction zone should cap any explosive rally. With the FED looking to pause it is not likely that there will be any big USD rally. Unless there is a big rally in Yields.