The Tiger Forex Report – Week of 12/04 – 12/08/2023

DXY Bulls & Bears are fighting for control of the trend. Yields are in retreat and weighing on the USD. This bodes well for the Bears early in the week.

Crude Oil has a short-term bottom potentially forming. Key off the 73.79 level. Trading above here is likely to catch a Bid and spark a fresh leg Northward.

30yr T-Bond Bulls are keeping Yields at bay, and momentum is on their side early in the week. Be careful fading this rally.

EURUSD Weekly Outlook:

The biggest weight in the DXY ended the week on a sour note, and this week the EURUSD may start out under pressure. There has been a nice correction off last weeks swing high. It will be a choppy trade between the upside target level and the daily directional pivot level. A violation of 1.1029 extends the upside target to the 1.1150 level should the Bulls regain control.

If the Bears can hold a trade below 1.0834 then it is likely that the market will press a correction lower into the critical support band. If the short-term trend is to remain intact this area should hold firm. A failure from the 1.0664 level would be a negative indication that the trend is in question. The downside breakout level then becomes a key target to watch out for.

GBPUSD Weekly Outlook:

British Pound Bulls are holding above the daily directional pivot level. Trading above here keeps the market poised for another challenge of resistance. Use caution fading this rally. A violation of the upside correction target is a good indication that the Bulls are going to try and push new move highs up towards the 1.2985 level.

If the Bears can sustain a trade below the 1.2594 level a correction may unfold. A slide back into the critical support zone would be a nice profit taking release area to digest the recent surge to higher levels. 1.2302 should put a floor on a retreating market. But watch Yields and the USD. If those two markets firm up the GBPUSD could press a breaking market all the way to the downside breakout level. Remember the fundamentals are still very bad for the UK.

USDCHF Weekly Outlook:

USDCHF Bears are likely to keep pressing the trend lower. A bounce is inevitable, but the trend is your friend. If the market can get a sustained trade below the downside target level, then odds are good that the 0.8528 level is a viable objective. Trading back in this area would be a great place to take profits on Short positions. That does not make it a buying area. There is a high probability that trading in this area could get very choppy. Not good for trend or swing traders.

Only a sustained trade above the downside target level confirms enough strength to put the brakes on the recent downtrend. The upside correction zone is the Bullish objective. It will be a tough climb back up to these levels. However, if the USD starts to regain strength the USDCHF could get a good boost of fresh buying to help the Bulls out. Should this occur keep an eye on yields too. If they start to rise the USDCHF could reach the extended upside target.

USDJPY Weekly Outlook:

The correction in the USDJPY is eyeballing the directional pivot level. Since the USD is getting hit it will be hard to catch a bid in this currency. If the market holds below the 147.15 level, then the Bears should press new weekly lows into the downside correction zone. This would be a fantastic profit taking area for anyone riding the Short side. But be careful buying in this lower area. Make sure to wait for a valid Buy signal for this currency or the USD before getting Bullish this market.

Only a rally above the 148.10 level would confirm that the Bulls are back in control. Trading above here sets the market up for a challenge of the critical BOJ threshold level. A touch and go trade is expected to develop in this area. If the USDJPY is set for a longer-term range trade to lower environment the market should hold below the 150.00 level. Trading above here would be a positive indication that the Bulls have every intention of touching the upside breakout level. 153.68 is the long-term Bullish target.

AUDUSD Weekly Outlook:

AUDUSD Bulls are licking their chops and hungry for higher levels. The extended upside target is the level to aim for this week. While the USD is under the gun it is likely that this FX pair will remain in a higher move high posture. 0.6920 is the extended longer-term upside trend target.

The slope for the current rally is very steep. Watch for a dip below Thursday’s swing Low. If the market gets under here the Bears should help to touch off the Stops of weak Longs. Selling pressure is likely to build. A drop back towards the critical correction support band is the call. Watch to see if there are any signs of USD strength this week. If there are, then the strong sell off scenario becomes more likely.

NZDUSD Weekly Outlook:

The balloon under water rally continues in the NZDUSD. Raging Bulls are pressing the critical trend range area. This is expected to slow the market down. A digestive trade is likely to develop, however, if the USD gets pounded this FX pair could get another big boost to the upside. 0.6465 is the longer-term rally target level.

If the Bears can sustain a trade below the 0.6167 level the opportunity for a corrective slide should increase. Watch the DXY this week. If the USD gains strength, then the NZDUSD has a good chance at pulling back to the downside correction zone. This is about all that should occur in the event of a lower trading market this week. Especially with Yields in retreat.

USDCAD Weekly Outlook:

USDCAD Bears have reached the sell signal target band. This is a great area to take profits on Short trades, but be careful trying to buy into this area. Wait for a valid signal. As long as the USD is under the gun this FX pair should have trouble maintaining any signs of strength. If the market gets below 1.3463 it is very likely that the downside breakout level will be in play. This is a major trend area holding this currency up.

Trading above 1.3493 will have this market in a holding pattern all the way up to the upside correction band. While there is a question about future FED actions the likelihood of a range trade developing become very high. We are on the cusp of an election year too. Only a rally above 1.3743 confirms Bullish momentum has returned for another run at multi month highs. 1.4022 is the long-term bullish objective should the USD get a bounce.