The Tiger Forex Report – Week of 2/12 – 2/16/2024

The DXY had little change last week, and the critical resistance band will be the real test for the Bull trend. If Yields fall the Bears may trigger a slide, but if they rally the USD could get a boost.

Crude Oil Bulls are pressing through key levels. If there is follow through trading to the upside the Bulls could spark a fresh wave of buying momentum. Otherwise, it will most likely be back to the $70 - $75 a barrel trading range.

30yr T-Bond Bears are looking to lift Yields. Economic numbers and FED reactions are not too Dovish. This market is setup to disappoint. A wide range trade is not out of the question.

EURUSD Weekly Outlook:

Chop Suey! The critical support band held the EURUSD in a tight range trade. Use this area for directional bias. A failure from the 1.0713 level confirms the Bears intentions to keep the trend lower going. Look out below! The downside target extreme becomes the area that the Bears will try and reach. Watch the DXY. If the Index rallies higher in a big way it could help this market really push a new leg lower hard.

A breach of 1.0793 will have the Bulls trying to get back above 1.0834. The daily directional pivot level is a key area for this market. Sustained trading above here would be a big signal that the downward trend is ready for a pause. This sets the EURUSD Bulls up for a rally that would have the potential to reach the critical resistance band before there is a pause. The DXY could be key in this relationship too. If the DXY goes on a Bearish terror it could fuel a rally in this currency all the way to the upside target #1 level.

GBPUSD Weekly Outlook:

Almost an unchanged week for the GBPUSD last week, but a lower move low was set. Since the market failed to get back into the trading range it had been drifting in, we are looking for another run at support his week. An early run for newer move lows is the call. If the Bears can post a close below last week’s low there should be enough momentum to drop this market into the downside target band. This area should hold the currency up. Only a very strong explosion of USD strength would justify any further Bearish pressure.

If the Bulls can get a rally going it will be a fight all the way up to the last lower move high (LH). Should the Bulls find the strength to do this then the upside target #1 becomes the new focus for the GBPUSD. Watch the DXY. If the Index starts to get slammed, it could help the GBPUSD Bulls catch a very strong bid.

USDCHF Weekly Outlook:

It could be a rough trade ahead for the USDCHF market. This correction is pressing resistance, and could get one more leg higher up towards the upside correction zone. If there is USD strength, then that could influence this currency pair and add support. In the event, that the Bulls can hit this area this week, it would be very likely that the market would then start to digest newer move highs.

The long-term trend is still a Bear. A failure from the directional pivot level would be a negative sign that momentum is starting to shift hands. A close under 0.8666 would confirm the markets resolve to press support for a while. This makes the downside correction zone the Bears key area to try and reach. Trading back in this area would set a newer move low after a higher move high. Big range trade conditions may be developing with tighter swings to trade. Let’s keep our eyes peeled for how this scenario could shape up and put a halt to the trend.

USDJPY Weekly Outlook:

Is the USDJPY starting to run out of upside momentum??? It maybe the call. The market is heading into a toppy choppy resistance area. Most likely the upside correction zone will hold the currency down. There is the BOJ critical threshold level smack in the middle of this area. Only a strong boost to the USD would justify a rally above the 150.30 level. If this occurs there will be an update for extended trend objectives to aim for.

Although the trend is a Bull, technical and fundamentals are spelling out a corrective to digestive outlook. A short-term sell off for the market would set the Bears up for a new leg lower that could make it all the way to the directional pivot level. This is a key long-term level. If the USDJPY falls below here it could ignite a blitzkrieg of selling. The downside correction area would be a very viable downside trend objective. A close below this area is necessary before any new extended target areas can be assessed. The key to the long-term outlook will not just be a matter of watching the FED, but also Crude Oil. In the event of a very strong rally in Crude, it would be hard for USDJPY Bears to maintain a hold on this currency.

AUDUSD Weekly Outlook:

The AUDUSD Bulls posted a slightly higher week, but over all, it was a ho hum sloppy range trade. Key off the critical correction support level. Trading above here helps to pump the breaks on the recent Bear trend. This would also have the market flirting with an upside breakout of the downward sloping trend line keeping the Bears in control. A strong corrective rally is likely if a breakout occurs. Fresh buying could fuel a new leg higher up into the critical resistance band.

Sustained trading below the critical correction support level would be an indication that the Bears have newer move lows on their minds. This makes the downside target zone a very probable area to fall into before there is a bounce or digestive phase. A close below 0.6375 is needed to project longer-term Bearish trend targets.

NZDUSD Weekly Outlook:

What a week for this currency pair. The market set a newer mover low, and reversed to end the week with an upside trend breakout. Momentum is on the side of the Bulls, and an early challenge of resistance is the call. If Yields are quiet to weaker the NZDUSD would have the potential to reach the critical resistance band before the week is through. A close above the 0.6264 level is required before any longer-term Bullish forecast will be likely. If, and when that does occur, it would be wise to be careful selling into strength.

If the market does not catch a bid this week it will be a grind as this market digests recent volatility. Range trade madness is the call until the market gets under the 0.6072 level. Trading below here should have the Bears trying to press a lower move low down to the 0.6000 level. If this area does not hold it would be a very good sign that the Bears are getting ready to make multi-month lows in a big way. Once there is a close below the 0.6000 level, we will update bearish sell targets.

USDCAD Weekly Outlook:

USDCAD Bulls are coming off a higher move high, and are ripe for another challenge of resistance. A play for 1.3537 is expected. Although newer move highs are in the outlook the market should still be contained within the upside correction zone. Only a close above 1.3624 would confirm that the longer-term trend is Bullish.

If the Bears can get a dip into the critical support zone it will be quite the fight. A failure from 1.3313 would be a negative sign that USDCAD Bears are looking to make a statement. Newer multi-month lows could get pounded all the way towards the downside target #1 level. Trading back in this area may only be the beginning. If there is a severe slide in the USD, then this currency would have the potential to get all the way down to the 1.2800 area before the first quarter is over. Food for thought.