The Tiger Forex Report – Week of 2/19 – 2/23/2024

The DXY Bulls are having a tough time with new move highs. Expect a slow start to the week.

Crude Oil is trying to breakout to the upside. This could be the beginning of a run up to the $81 plus a barrel area.

30yr T-Bond Bears are trying to drive Yields higher off bad economic data. Guess what guys…Inflation is not going away.

EURUSD Weekly Outlook:

EURUSD Bears may be running out of steam. The critical support band is big this week. Trading below 1.0713 would be good sign that the Bears are not through with newer move lows. This puts the downside target extreme in the sights for those looking to ride the longer-term trend. Until the FED turns Dovish this currency is in trouble. Of course, the collapsing EU economy also weighs in on things. New mandates across the EU are being imposed to hold the Union together. If turmoil continues France and Italy may become powder kegs. Can you say big volatility for the EURUSD? Looks like Brexit happened just in time. It would be illegal today.

Only a rally above the directional pivot level would take us off the negative forecast. A breach of 1.0834 should touch off Buy Stops and fuel a rally up towards the critical resistance band. Use caution. It could be a head fake spike. Until the FED gets Dovish rallies are not likely to hold. If there is a close above the 1.1022 level the outlook will change to neutral. This extends the longer-term bullish objective to the upside target #1 level.

GBPUSD Weekly Outlook:

Overall, the GBPUSD is locked in a sideways to lower trade. Key off the directional pivot level for the market’s bias. Trading under here would be a sign that the market is going to press lower move lows towards the downside target band. Not much more is likely to the downside since Yields are not expected to push extremes.

Trading above 0.2594 will be tough as the currency tries to reverse gears and make a higher move high. But do not get too Bullish should this occur. All upside trading will be under question until Yields drop. Only a violation of the upside target #1 would change the long-term outlook, and confirm that the Bulls are back for the long haul. 1.3020 is the extended upside objective.

USDCHF Weekly Outlook:

The trend is your friend guys, and the Bulls are ready to press newer move highs into the upside correction zone. With Yields riding the highs it is likely that this currency will remain firm, but not too aggressive of a Bull. Only a rally above 0.9010 confirms the Bulls intentions to press multi month highs towards the extended upside target.

If the market pulls back, it will be a choppy unsettling trade back to the directional pivot level. A failure here will put the USDCHF on edge and should have the market pressing support into the downside correction zone. This is it for a slide under the current interest rate environment. Only a big pull back in Yields would justify a dip below the 0.8544 level. If there is a close below here, we will update the Bearish forecast.

USDJPY Weekly Outlook:

Wow! It could get interesting this week in the USDJPY. The trend is pointing to another run for newer move highs. The upside target level is the objective. Yields are poking higher, and should keep this market pointed North. Above 151.70 the Bulls will be on a mission to hit the 153.25 area. Unless there is a move by the BOJ to counteract the trend.

If the market can hold below the 150.00 BOJ threshold level it would be a good sign that he USDJPY is ready for a digestive phase, or even a correction. Below 150.00 the Bears will try and drag this currency back into the downside correction zone. This should be it for a lower trading market until the FED gets Dovish.

AUDUSD Weekly Outlook:

The Bulls ended the week with an upside breakout. Is it real, or just a sideways move by attrition? We shall see. Trading is expected to follow through to the upside. This puts the critical resistance band in our sights. If the Bulls can get back into this area it would be a good sign that the market is getting the long-term trend back in gear. All trading above 0.6711 should put the market on a mission to hit the Bullish upside target #1.

If the breakout is false the AUDUSD should fall back on support into the downside target zone. This area is expected to hold up. Only a big rally in Yields would justify a slide below this area. The Fed may not be Dovish, but they are not likely to raise rates any time soon. This is big information. An artificial floor is most likely forming. It could be the beginning of a multi month range trade environment. Be mindful of this possibility.

NZDUSD Weekly Outlook:

The week ended with an upside breakout in the NZDUSD. Are the Bulls ready to run? A challenge of resistance up into the critical resistance band is the call for the beginning of the week. Use caution in this area. This market is stuck in a sideways trade. A rally above 0.6242 would be a positive sign that the Bulls are getting the long-term trend back on the rally train. 0.6399 is the extended upside target level.

If the NZDUSD falls back into the downside correction zone it will be a sideways grind lower. Do not expect very much. Only a failure from the 0.6001 level confirms weakness. If this occurs it would be most likely because of a sharp drop in Yields. An update will be made should an event like this happen. This is very unlikely until the FED turns Dovish.

USDCAD Weekly Outlook:

USDCAD traders are poised to challenge resistance once again this week. Another run into the upside correction zone is expected. If the Bulls can breach the 1.3611 level fresh buying is likely to enter the market. This would extend new move highs up towards the upside bullish target level.

If the Bears can get a hold of this currency there is a chance of dragging the USDCAD into the downside correction zone. This is a critical support area. All trading below 1.3334 is a negative indication that the trend is starting to turn in the short-term. If Yields pull back sharply the downside target #1 becomes a viable objective. Can you say new multi-month lows? That is a very likely scenario if rates can get a nice pull back. Big swing trades may be in the cards for the next couple of months. Bring it on baby!