The Tiger Forex Report 2-5-24
The Tiger Forex Report – Week of 2/5 – 2/09/2024
FED week is over. The DXY had a big outside day, and the Bulls are ripe to press the rally higher early in the week.
Crude Oil Sell signal fell back on strong support and is right in the middle of the $70 to $75 range. Use Friday’s low for directional bias. If the low holds the Bulls may start to cause a ruckus.
30yr T-Bond Bears loved the Unenjoyment number. Dovishness is getting pushed out a bit more. Stay tuned for Yields to press higher in the short-term. This is Bullish for the USD.
EURUSD Weekly Outlook:
EURUSD Bears regained control of direction for this market on Friday. More follow through downside action is the call for early in the week. It is very likely that the market will probe lower into the critical support band. If Yields pull back this should be it for the slide and a digestion phase is likely to develop. However, if Yields continue the trek higher, then the market may extend the leg lower towards the downside target extreme.
Only a sustained trade above the daily directional pivot confirms the markets resolve to make a short-term turn. In this case the Bulls will have their hands full as they fight to pull back into the critical resistance band. This is a key area for the EURUSD. If the Bulls can get above here the market will be on the rally train again. The upside target #1 then becomes a viable objective. Especially if Yields start to soften again.
GBPUSD Weekly Outlook:
The GBPUSD posted an outside day with a lower close on Friday, and lower move lows are on the agenda. Watch out for the daily directional pivot level. Trading under here confirms the Bears resolve to make a lower move low. This puts the downside target band into focus for the Bears. If Yields continue to go up it would help to add pressure on this currency.
If the Bulls can get above Friday’s high the Bulls will be on a mission to blast through higher move highs. The upside target #1 is the first stop on a move that has the potential to hit the 1.3114 level. It is unlikely that the market is going to get up in this area anytime soon. However, if Yields soften again, it would change things for the EURUSD and really help to fuel fresh buying.
USDCHF Weekly Outlook:
USDCHF Bulls bounced off a higher move low and are ready to make a run through resistance. A sustained trade above the directional pivot level confirms the markets intentions to make a run for the upside correction zone. If Yields continue to rally the USDCHF has a strong probability of fueling a strong leg higher. 0.9149 is the longer-term trend target.
If the USDCHF fails to stay above the 0.8666 level the Bears are likely to fall back on support. The downside correction zone is where the market is probably going to get down to. This should set a floor for a falling market. All trading under this area would be a sign that the Bears are on a mission to resume the longer-term trend lower. New monthly lows in a big way would be the call. An update will be provided if the rug gets ripped out from under this currency pair.
USDJPY Weekly Outlook:
Like a balloon under water the USDJPY rocketed higher on Friday off the Unenjoyment positivity. That is Hawkish fuel for the FED guys. This puts the upside correction zone in play this week. This is a key area because the critical BOJ threshold level of 150.00 is also in play. If Yields power higher, resistance will most likely get cut like a hot knife though butter. If we get a close above here there will be an update, and maybe a BOJ reaction.
Only a failure from last weeks higher swing low reverses gears for the USDJPY. A dip below here should have the market laying on the directional pivot level. If the Bears can get under here the downside correction zone is a viable area to reach. It is not likely that the market will fall below here until there is a big softening in Yields.
AUDUSD Weekly Outlook:
AUDUSD Bears are hanging on newer move lows with a vengeance. A dip below the critical correction support level is very likely early in the week. Sustained trading below here should accelerate downside momentum and slam the market into the downside target zone. With Yields climbing it should reinforce this outlook for a few sessions.
Only a rally above last weeks high reverses the negative outlook as the market struggles to get back up towards the critical resistance band. If the market is a Bear, it is unlikely to get above this area. Trading above 0.6739 and all bets are off as the Bulls shoot through resistance up towards the upside target #1. Upside target #2 is the extended upside objective.
NZDUSD Weekly Outlook:
Outside day lower close in the NZDUSD has the Bears on a mission to test support early this week. Can the downside correction zone hold? Good question. If the market fails at the 0.6000 level and closes underneath here, we will have an update. With Yields in rally mode there is a good probability that the Bears may get to continue to press the downtrend. Maybe the market is not in a correction, but rather the beginning of an extended sell off. We shall see.
Watch out for a rally above last Wednesday’s high. Trading above here is a good sign that the NZDUSD will make a run for the critical resistance band. If the NZDUSD is really turning then this should cap any rally. If the Bulls can breach the 0.6264 level, then it is likely that fresh buying will be fueled by weak Shorts scrambling to save a dime. New multi week highs are on the agenda with the upside target level becoming a highly likely area to hit over the next couple of weeks.
USDCAD Weekly Outlook:
The Bulls are ripe to make a run for he upside correction zone early this week. USDCAD should press this correction North through the 1.3537 level and keep working its way up towards the 1.3624 area. With Yields reacting negatively to recent economic releases it should help to shore up the Bulls. Once there is a close above 1.3624, we can get a better handle on how much further the Bulls may get a lift.
Watch last week’s swing low. If the is a break here the critical support zone will be in play. Can this hold? If not, it would be a good indication that the market will resume the long-term Bear trend and pound new move lows. Downside target #1 becomes the first objective as this currency begins to unravel again. The key is to see if Yield fall back again. If so, there is a very good chance that fresh selling will reenter the market. That would set the USDCAD up to slam new multi month lows.