The Tiger Forex Report – Week of 03/10 – 03/14/2025

The DXY Bears are pressing the trend and the downside target level is now a stone throw away.

Crude Oil continues to ride new move lows. The downside target level remains a viable objective.

30yr T-Bond Yields are ripe for another dip. A rally for newer move highs is expected over the next couple of weeks.

EURUSD Weekly Outlook:

The monthly directional pivot level is in play. Use this for the market’s bias. Trading above here keeps the Bulls on a mission for the upside target #2. As long as Yields are in retreat the Bulls have an edge keeping the EURUSD in Bull mode. Only a sustained trade below 1.0832 confirms that this FX pair is ready for a digestive trade back to the old upside target level. This is all that is likely for a pullback. Momentum is on the side of the Bulls, and only a big change in the fundamentals would support a strong turn. Be mindful though. This market could turn on a dime. The fundamentals are bad for the EU.

GBPUSD Weekly Outlook:

The trend has gone verticle in the GBPUSD and another run for higher move highs is expected this week. As long as the USD is under pressure the Bulls should keep making their way toward the UTL #2. Only a close below the upside correctin zone puts this forecast on pause as the market digests recent market action. This area could get choppy so be warned. Only a close below the monthly directional pivot level changes the outlook to Bearish and this should put the downside breakout level in the cross hairs for traders this week. If there is a close below this area there will be an update. Keep an eye on economic data in the UK. The fundamentals for this market are very unstable, and the Bears could overtake this currency fast.

USDCHF Weekly Outlook:

USDCHF Bears are on edge and have a good shot at reaching the downside target level #1. This is a critical area for support. Be careful not to try and catch a falling knife. If you are looking to fade this move wait for a solid Buy signal. Sustained trading below the downside target level #1 would be a good indication that the Bears are going to stay in control. Until there is a solid reason for USD strength the Bearish forecast should remain intact. Only a close above the original Bearish correction band would reverse the outlook and target the old downside breakout level. This is a key area that should put a ceiling on a higher trending market. If the Swiss gets back above this area there will be an update.

USDJPY Weekly Outlook:

USDJPY Bears are on the move and momentum remains to the downside. Sustained trading below the downside correction band keeps this market on edge targeting the downside directional pivot level. The BOJ is happy with where this market is at, and there is not likely to be any action by this central bank. Rallies are not expected to hold this week. Only a big turn in the price of Crude Oil or a sharp rise in Yields is likely to reverse the trend in this FX pair. Also, a close above the critical BOJ threshold level is needed to confirm a true shift in the short-term trend.

AUDUSD Weekly Outlook:

Hoh hum. The sideways trade is obvious and more of the same is on the agenda. A rally above the upside breakout level should have the market pressing the upside correction zone. This area is likely to hold the currency back. Only a close above the upside target level would confirm that the Bulls are back in control and set to press the trend. Should USD strength return this week the Bears are likely to flirt with the lows. Be careful not to get caught selling in the hole. Not much follow through is expected. A close below the downside breakout level is needed to confirm weakness. This would then put the long-term Bearish target on the menu for the Bears.

NZDUSD Weekly Outlook:

Sideways is the call for the NZDUSD. Key off the upside correction band. Trading below here keeps the market in a holding pattern down to the critical pivot level. Should the Bears slip below here it is likely that fresh selling pressure could build momentum and send this market back into the downside target band. This is all that is expected for a sell off. A close is needed to spark a fresh leg higher. If this occurs then the Bulls may be able to spark a move toward the upside breakout level. The USD needs to fall under extreme pressure to justify getting this FX pair beyond resistance extremes.

USDCAD Weekly Outlook:

Swing time in the USDCAD. The range trade is here, but there are some moves on the horizon. Right now the market is winding its coil and is ready to spring again. Use the downside correction band for directional bias. Below here the market will be leaning on the downside breakout level. A failure here would be a good sign that this currency is likely to press the downside target level #1. Sustained trading above the downside correction band keeps the market sideways all the way up to the critical trend resistance area. If there is a move above here there will be an update. This is very unlikely to occur this week unless Yields go up sharply and the USD catches a big bid.