The Tiger Forex Report – Week of 3/11 – 3/15/2024

The DXY hammered support last week, and bounced off a strong area. A Sell signal was triggered on Friday as well. If Yields stay soft…the index is most likely going to remain Bearish.

Crude Oil Bears may have the upper hand to start the week out. If so, it may help to fuel the USDJPY Bears as well. The technical variables are pointing towards a sell off.

30yr T-Bond Bulls liked the Unemployment number last week. It is helping to soften Yields on all ends of the curve. Above 121^23 the Bulls are in control.

EURUSD Weekly Outlook:

The Bulls had a nice week in the EURUSD. A Buy signal was triggered on Thursday, and newer move highs have a good chance of reaching the critical resistance band. Multiple markets are pointing towards a USD beating, and it may be the future. However, many of the FX pairs have hit major levels, and a sharp turn could be what really manifests. Mostly because of the range trade conditions that have plagued the currencies. If this market can get above the 1.1022 level, the upside target #1 becomes a viable longer-term trend objective.

The Bears need to get the EURUSD below the upside breakout level to put this market on pause. Trading under this level would have this currency looking South at the monthly directional pivot level. Momentum belongs to the Bulls, but a failure from 1.0834 would be a good sign that the market is going to try and fall back into the critical support band. Trading back in this area would negate the current Buy signal.

GBPUSD Weekly Outlook:

This FX pair is starting to go parabolic, and it is in a buy dip posture. GBPUSD traders have all the factors on their side if they are Bulls, but volatility may start to subside. The trend is an obvious Bull. Sustained trading above the 1.2865 level would be a good sign that this currency could get as high as 1.3020 before there is a good consolidation phase.

Only a failure from the upside breakout level would take us off the rally wagon, and drop this market into a digestive consolidation area. With Yields softening it is unlikely that there will be any sharp sell off. If Yields do start to go higher, then the GBPUSD Bears could start to regain a hold of this market. Should the Bears drag this currency below 1.2535, the downside correction band would become a good longer-term sell off trend target.

USDCHF Weekly Outlook:

The USDCHF is flirting with a downside breakout. Is the sideways trade over? Good question. Use the 0.8741 level for directional bias. Above here it is more of the same choppy slop up to the 0.8885 level. A breach of this area would be a good indication that the Bulls are going to try and lift new move highs into the upside correction zone. With Yields pulling back it will be a tough challenge for the Bulls to hold a rally in this currency.

Below 0.8741 the Bears will be laying on the monthly directional pivot level. This is a key level holding the market afloat. Trading below this area should add fuel to the Bears cause. The downside correction zone should be a reachable objective as downside momentum builds. Not much more is on the agenda for a lower trading market this week. Be mindful of one thing. A big sideways trade is not out of the realm of possibility.

USDJPY Weekly Outlook:

With Yields in retreat and Crude Oil on edge, this currency is ripe for more lower trading this week. Newer move lows are the call for early in the week. Watch the critical swing low level. A failure here could press this slide all the way into the downside correction zone. This is where it may get difficult. Another sloppy directionless trade is likely to develop at these lower levels. Remember that the long-term trend is a Bull.

Only a rally above the 150.00 level would take us off the severe Bear campaign. Above 150.00 the Bulls should make a play for the upside breakout level. If the market gets above here it will probably be a spike blow off high. The upside target level is the extended Bullish target.

AUDUSD Weekly Outlook:

The Aussie spiked into strong resistance last week, and another test of resistance should occur this week. Trading above the upside breakout level should keep this market pointed North for another test of the upside resistance band. If the market is going to run out of steam, then this is where it is likely to happen. If there is a close above 0.6711, then that would be a good sign that the Bulls are trying to trend towards the long-term upside target.

Below the upside target level, it will be a tough trade as the market slips back into the range of the last few months. The downside support band should be it for a lower trading market over the next couple of weeks. Fundamentals just do not line up yet for a huge Bearish sell off event.

NZDUSD Weekly Outlook:

NZDUSD traders are eyeballing the critical resistance band. This is the hurdle to overcome. Trading above this area would be a sign that the longer-term Bulls are not done with this FX pair. If there is a close above this area it would be foolish to fade the momentum. Multi-month highs could reach the upside target level over the next few weeks.

Below the critical resistance band, the market will be in the chop zone all the way down to the 0.6075 level. A failure here would be a good sign that the Bears are set to test the downside correction zone. This should be it for a lower trading market. Only a sharp rally in Yields would justify any trading below these levels. However, if there is a reversal in Yields, the downside target level would become a viable sell off objective.

USDCAD Weekly Outlook:

Not much to see here folks. The USDCAD is stuck between the breakout levels. Wait for a signal. If the Bears can get a dip below the downside breakout level fresh selling pressure should enter the market. This should help hammer support into the downside correction zone. The critical support level is the longer-term Bearish target.

Only a rally above the upside breakout level would confirm strength as the currency makes newer move highs. The critical resistance band is the longer-term upside area to shoot for. However, under the current conditions it is not likely that the market will see these upper areas anytime soon. Unless Yields start to go higher in a big way.