The Tiger Forex Report – Week of 3/18 – 3/22/2024

The DXY Bulls were fueled by inflationary influences. More to come especially if Yields continue to climb. But remember it is FED week, and we may be in for a tight range trade until after the meeting.

Crude Oil Bulls broke out to the upside, and more rally action is likely. A spike into the critical resistance zone is the most likely call for the week ahead.

30yr T-Bond Bears are loving the inflation fears. Use caution until after the FED meeting. It may be a very choppy range trade for a few sessions.

EURUSD Weekly Outlook:

A tough trade this week is very likely. EURUSD Bulls and Bears will be on a teeter tauter with the FED meeting this week. Be on guard. Swing trading nightmare is how things are most likely to be for a few days. With that said, the market is on strong support holding the short-term trend in place. Key of Friday’s Close. Trading above here has the market trying to hold onto the Bull trend. The critical resistance band is a very viable objective if Yields stay flat to lower.

Below Friday’s Close the Bears will try and press a correction towards the monthly directional pivot level. This is key support. A failure here indicates the market is very likely to make a play for the critical support band. If there is not a FED rate cut, there is a good chance of the EURUSD Bears grinding support. Fundamentals are horrible for the EU. This week is not likely to cause any big moves, so we will send out an update if there is any big change of affairs. Remember, the long-term outlook is a wide range trade.

GBPUSD Weekly Outlook:

This market has had a nice profit taking move after a higher move high. The Buy signal that is still in play looks to be a dud. A sideways choppy trade is very likely this week. GBPUSD fundamentals in the UK are a disaster, and it is a FED week. Below the upside breakout level this currency will be in a sideways trade down to the critical support band. This area should be a floor for a lower moving market. Only a big jump in Yields would justify a move below this area.

If the Bulls can get a rally above the upside breakout level there is a good chance that Stops will get hit. This could fuel fresh buying and make a run for the upside target level #1. GBPUSD Bulls might like this, but beware. It is Fed week, and follow through moves will be difficult. Yields are Up, and unless there is a Close above the upside target level #1, we are sticking with a very likely cap on rallies. If there is a Close above 1.2865, we will have an update.

USDCHF Weekly Outlook:

USDCHF traders are stuck in a sideways to slightly higher trend. The market is wedging and it is Fed week. Here is the call for the week… Zero until after the FED meeting…

A breach of the upside breakout level could lift the Bulls into the upside correction zone. Use caution it is FED time. There is not likely to be much follow through. If there is a Close above 0.9010, we will update the upside potential.

A failure from the downside breakout level would be a good indication that the Bears are going to test the monthly directional pivot level. If the Bears can get a print below here it is very likely that Sell Stops will fuel a nice extended leg lower into the downside correction zone.

USDJPY Weekly Outlook:

Yields and Crude Oil are up… that means fundamentals are pointing North for the USDJPY. Now do not get carried away. It is FED time. A run for higher levels is expected early in the week. The 150.00 level is the key hurdle to Close above. Trading in this area would help to keep this currency a Bull, but the BOJ is lurking in the shadows. If we get a Close above the upside breakout level before the FED is done, there will be an update.

A consolidation trade may develop, but it is not likely to get too Bearish. There is unlikely to be too big of a sell off without a big drop in Yields and Crude Oil Futures as well. Only a failure from the critical swing low level would indicate a short-term shift in trend, and an extended leg lower into the downside correction zone.

AUDUSD Weekly Outlook:

The Aussie fell on the directional pivot level last week. Use this for directional bias. Trading above the 0.6552 level is a positive indication that the AUDUSD correction is on pause. This makes this upside breakout level a viable target. If the Bulls can breach this area, then fresh buying is likely to fuel a surge into the upside resistance band.

Below 0.6552 the Bears will be grinding support. It is a FED week, and not much is expected to the downside unless Yields start to move higher in a big way. The current trend is slightly Bullish, and only a failure from the rising “Blue” support line would change the outlook. If there is a failure from this support it would be a good indication that the Bears are going to try and hammer new move lows into the downside support band.

NZDUSD Weekly Outlook:

NZDUSD traders are hovering above key support. If a lower move low is not made this week the market is likely to remain in a tough range trade back up to the critical resistance band. The “Chop Zone” may contain this currency for a while longer. Only a close above 0.6242 would confirm any longer-term Bullish strength.

A failure from the key support area triggers new move lows, and should keep this market pointed lower. The downside correction zone should hold this market from pressing support any further. However, a print below 0.6001 would be a negative indication that this FX pair is on a mission to reach the downside target level.

USDCAD Weekly Outlook:

USDCAD Bulls have the advantage, but the FED meeting may slow the rally down. The trend is your friend, and an early challenge of resistance is the most likely scenario. The key is the upside breakout level. This is the major area to get above. Sustained trading in this area would be appositive sign that the Bulls are ready to lift newer move highs up into the critical resistance zone. Most likely the market will run out of steam in this area, and a digestive phase would be very likely to develop. Only a very big rally in Yields would justify an extended leg higher.

It is not out of the question that the USDCAD could be a dead trade until after the FED meeting. If this is the case, it will be a rough trade back to the downside breakout level. A dip below here should have the Bears spiking lower into the downside correction zone. Be careful trying to fade a lower trading market into this area. If the Bears get under the 1.3336 level it is likely to ignite fresh selling pressure and extend the downside objective to the critical support level.